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<blockquote data-quote="deathdonut" data-source="post: 4121924" data-attributes="member: 62072">You assume that the person is still lying down at the end of 2 rounds.&nbsp; That means that you pre-suppose he did not stand up during those rounds.&nbsp; This is conditional probability.&nbsp; Trust me man, I'm an actuary with a degree in statistics.If the question was &quot;What is the chance of someone who just went unconcious dying in 3 rounds?&quot;, you would be right.Instead, the question I tried to answer is: What is the chance of dying on the THIRD round assuming you have been unconcious for TWO.Look at it this way, the only way these events could occur is if you did not rolled a 1-9 for three rounds running.&nbsp; In this, you are right.&nbsp; What you forget is that the Universe of possible rolls is only 1-19 for two rounds.So the situation only occurs in (9/19)^2.&nbsp; On the third round, it's possible to die or stand up.&nbsp; That means the total answer is:&nbsp; (9/20)*(9/19)^2As it happens, my number is off due to a quick attempt to correct the &quot;strike on a 10&quot; error that I started off with too.&nbsp; So while the number is off, the logic is right.&nbsp; The actual answer is 10.1% rather than either 9% or 12.5%.&nbsp; Guess we were both off <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f642.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":)" title="Smile&nbsp; &nbsp; :)"&nbsp; data-smilie="1"data-shortname=":)" /></blockquote>

[QUOTE="deathdonut, post: 4121924, member: 62072"] You assume that the person is still lying down at the end of 2 rounds. That means that you pre-suppose he did not stand up during those rounds. This is conditional probability. Trust me man, I'm an actuary with a degree in statistics. If the question was "What is the chance of someone who just went unconcious dying in 3 rounds?", you would be right. Instead, the question I tried to answer is: What is the chance of dying on the THIRD round assuming you have been unconcious for TWO. Look at it this way, the only way these events could occur is if you did not rolled a 1-9 for three rounds running. In this, you are right. What you forget is that the Universe of possible rolls is only 1-19 for two rounds. So the situation only occurs in (9/19)^2. On the third round, it's possible to die or stand up. That means the total answer is: (9/20)*(9/19)^2 As it happens, my number is off due to a quick attempt to correct the "strike on a 10" error that I started off with too. So while the number is off, the logic is right. The actual answer is 10.1% rather than either 9% or 12.5%. Guess we were both off :) [/QUOTE]

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