The Saudi Arabian oil fields are the largest and the easiest to exploit. Other sources of oil are not economical until crude reaches $40+ per barrel. However, once all of the large sources of oil are gone it will not be economic to use oil for automobiles (at least for most people). The end of oil as a major source of fuel has been consistently set at about 2050. This estimate could go either way depending upon consumption – especially if China and/or India increase consumption.
Part of the problem in the US is refining capacity. Consumption has been increasing but we have not been increasing our refining capacity. Even a $2 per gallon, gasoline is still much cheaper in the US than most parts of the world. When I was in Peru a couple of years back, gasoline was about $8 per gallon. The streets were constantly filled with cars – but most ever car was also an ad hoc taxi.
Many plastics now come from organic products not just oil. The problem with organic sources of fuel is water. In the US, all of our aquifers are in danger. If you look at an aquifer map of the US all are yellow or red – especially in the Midwest. In the next decade, water will become an even bigger problem in places like the Middle East.
Nuclear power is not as economical as most people think. When you add in all of the costs associated with contamination clean-up it becomes very expensive. Also, you have the perpetual problem of what to do with the waste. No one wants it.
Hydroelectric power is a good source, but in the Western US we have had a shortage of water for the last decade. I don’t think any reservoir is in good shape. Here in New Mexico, Elephant Butte reservoir is going to be at 14% of capacity. Granted it is in a desert, but the water comes from the Colorado Rockies.
Wood is a very short term resource at this point.
Coal is the most abundant source of fossil fuel in the US. Most coal has sulfur in it. Burn it and you get Sulfuric Acid rain. There are technologies to mitigate this problem, but they are expensive.
Solar and wind still cannot produce enough energy to accommodate the demand. As someone mentioned we can mine fuel from trash. But expensive and requires energy to create in the first place.
Fuel cells are a good idea, but they essentially convert electricity to a fuel for cars. (You need electricity to make hydrogen from water.)
The tar sands in Canada are very expensive to mine oil from.
So there are three crisis coming up: Global warming, Water shortage, and Fuel shortage. Global warming affects water and water affects our ability to produce alternative fuels.
To add to that. In Geologic history there have been two large mass extinction events: one at the Permian/Triassic (the largest) and the second at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (which killed the dinosaurs). However, larger than either of these is the one that has been going on for the last hundred years.
Bloodstone Press said:
I don't think anyone really knows how much oil is left or when it will run out.
What we know is where all of the big oil reservoirs are located. There are probably oil fields that have not been discovered – but they are likely to be small and/or difficult to extract oil from. The estimates on when oil will run out are based upon the rates of current consumption. If that rate increases the estimates are revised downward. The most conservative estimate I have come across was the 2050 I mentioned above.
However, these are estimates based upon 1st and 2nd order effects. If a large Saudi Arabian sized oil field is suddenly discovered or if consumption dramatically decreases then these estimates will be off. However, the likelihood of either happening is fairly small.
