Ok math geeks I need help

[Cake Mage]

I suck at math, but i know you guys are geniuses. So I have a question for you.

What is the better odds (or are they even different):

rolling 4d10 and trying to get one die number under 4 or rolling 2d10 and trying to get one die number under 6?

I would think the first one, but I don't know how to calculate it to be sure.

 

[Nifft]

Assuming: two (or more) successes are just as good as one success. Not sure if you're counting 4 & 6 as success or failure, so here's the math for both:

Probability that all four d10s will be above 4: .6 ^ 4 = 0.1296 = 13% chance of failure
Probability that all four d10s will be above 3: .7 ^ 4 = 0.24 = 24% chance of failure

Probability that both d10s will be above 6: .4 ^ 2 = 0.16 = 16% chance of failure
Probability that both d10s will be above 5: .5 ^ 2 = 0.25 = 25% chance of failure

Cheers, -- N

 

[Cake Mage]

Your the best!

Thank you so much, i was getting a headache thinking about that.

 

[Ferret]

I find this to be *insanely* helpful: http://www.fnordistan.com/smallroller.html

 

[messy]

Assuming: two (or more) successes are just as good as one success. Not sure if you're counting 4 & 6 as success or failure, so here's the math for both:

Probability that all four d10s will be above 4: .6 ^ 4 = 0.1296 = 13% chance of failure
Probability that all four d10s will be above 3: .7 ^ 4 = 0.24 = 24% chance of failure

Probability that both d10s will be above 6: .4 ^ 2 = 0.16 = 16% chance of failure
Probability that both d10s will be above 5: .5 ^ 2 = 0.25 = 25% chance of failure

Cheers, -- N

good work, nifft, but i think you may have misinterpreted his question...

rolling 4d10 and trying to get one die number under 4 or rolling 2d10 and trying to get one die number under 6?

so cake, were you asking for one of the numbers to be under 4? or all of the numbers?

you seemed satisfied with his answer, so maybe i'm wrong

messy

 

[Cake Mage]

just one number.

 

[mmadsen]

good work, nifft, but i think you may have misinterpreted his question...

so cake, were you asking for one of the numbers to be under 4? or all of the numbers?

Messy, in order to calculate the odds that one or more dice came up under 4, we can calculate the odds that all the dice came up over 4, and subtract that from 1.0 (or 100%).

(The question was ambiguous about whether 4 itself counted as a success or failure.)

 

[Nifft]

good work, nifft, but i think you may have misinterpreted his question...

There's a note a the top and some underlined stuff... upon re-reading, do I still look wrong?

Thanks, -- N

 

[Ferret]

I think its the fact that you go for the chance of *not* getting the results he asked about that is throwing people. It threw me to start with :S

 

[Quartz]

If you're interested learning more, this is basic probability theory.