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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Li Shenron" data-source="post: 6223045" data-attributes="member: 1465">I voted for the middle option. I expect 5e to be of moderate sales success, somewhere above 4e and below 3e.I think there are different groups in the customer base, perhaps the biggest generalization could be:- hardcore fans of a specific edition- general D&D fans- general RPG fans- casual gamersThing is, I have no idea how many belong to each category <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f642.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":)" title="Smile    :)"  data-smilie="1"data-shortname=":)" />But in general, they will follow very different dynamics. Hardcore fans of a specific edition will be persuaded to invest in 5e beyond the core, only if the new edition provides a clear improvement. But what kind of improvement are they looking for?General D&D fans are those who own non-core books of multiple editions (possibly other systems as well, but D&D being their primary). Even if not currently playing all editions they have, they generally think they'll probably play them again. These might be the easier ones to also include 5e into their collection.Blurred with the previous, general RPG fans may also easily pick up 5e, but since D&D is not their primary choice, they won't do so if it's too similar with another edition of D&D.Casual gamers are the biggest question... the point is that any non-gamer is a potential casual gamer, so the potential base is huge, and it all boils down to how WotC is going to (a) convince them to try the game out, and then (b) stick with it. Task (a) might be mostly a marketing issue, and has little or nothing to do with the rules of the game. Task (b) definitely depends on the rules, but also depends on people dynamics around the game. Can WotC deliver a game that can be enjoyed by families? By teenager friends groups? By school children? Can it be played at a scout camp, at a social (non-gamist) club, at school, at office parties, even at the church parish? When talking about this, I have a parallel in mind with the computer games market. There was a time, in the early age of home computer games, when stuff was so simple that it really was for everyone... think about Pong, Pac Man or Duck Hunt. You would literally play them with grandma and grandpa on a Christmas' eve - although they probably wouldn't have bought those games for themselves <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f61b.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":P" title="Stick out tongue    :P"  data-smilie="7"data-shortname=":P" /> - but the point is that they were not seen too much as a niche/nerd thing. Then average games got progressively more and more complicated... you wouldn't have much fun playing stuff like Street Fighter II or Tekken 3 unless you invested time practicing them. This trend hasn't stopped, and even investment-heavier games like WoW have flourished, but in parallel to this someone came up with the Wii, and games (at least those) once again became somewhat more mainstream.Now I don't know if WotC is even interested in doing this, I'm just saying however that it could be a possibility, to allow D&D to become a more mainstream sort of entertainment than a niche one.</blockquote>

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