D&D 5E Opinion poll: Once D&D Next is out, how do you think it will do? (based on what we have so far)

[ForeverSlayer]

I just love polls.

Well the last packet has gone out and has been tested. Based on the knowledge we have so far, I don't believe the final product is going to be radically different, how do you think it's going to do?

 

[Jester David]

I think 5e will be a strong game. It's good enough now to get a lot of people interested and D&D has both the name and convenient marketing of a handy anniversary. I think it will at least bring WotC back up to the second slot in ICv2 or tie with Pathfinder.

Really, the big questions are if it will sway enough Pathfinder fans away from Paizo, eat into the OSR crowd, and wow enough 4e players. That determines the difference between moderate success and huge success.

What is uncertain is if this will be enough for the management.

 

[ForeverSlayer]

I think 5e will be a strong game. It's good enough now to get a lot of people interested and D&D has both the name and convenient marketing of a handy anniversary. I think it will at least bring WotC back up to the second slot in ICv2 or tie with Pathfinder.

Really, the big questions are if it will sway enough Pathfinder fans away from Paizo, eat into the OSR crowd, and wow enough 4e players. That determines the difference between moderate success and huge success.

What is uncertain is if this will be enough for the management.

Fantastic post!

I wanted to give some XP but the whole "spread it around" yadda yadda.

 

[UngainlyTitan]

I think none of the above, so i have not voted. Pathfinder has a solid entrenched position and Paizo does not make money from selling rulesets but subscriptions to adventure material. So D&D Next is very likely to outsell Pathfinder, this is as much from the fact that Pathfinder has pretty much sold a copy to anyone that wants to buy one as anything else.
What we really don't know going forward what is WotC's business plan this time around. Last two iterations of D&D it was obviously to produce as many rule supplements that the market could bear and churn them out for as long as possible, lather, rinse and repeat. Now, we know this eventually lead to a customer backlash and the emergence of Pathfinder is part of that.
My guess is that the rule suplements will be relatively light in this edition, enough to maintain interest and buzz, may be a couple of books per year and setting material and adventures delivered via online Dungeon and Dragon with the bulk of money from the D&D brand to be obtained via other products.
Namely boardgames, platform and pc games, movies, books, comics and so forth.
There may be an expansion of Encounters via social media and online gaming but it will follow the enabling technology, no more grandiose attempts to lead online development.

 

[jhunton]

If Paizo has sold to everyone who is playing the game, then we as a game industry, are failing to reach new players. Just saying.

 

[the Jester]

Fantastic post!

I wanted to give some XP but the whole "spread it around" yadda yadda.

Covered it for ya.

I think... none of the above. I think it will do very well indeed, and be a strong contender for the top, but will likely face very stiff competition from Pathfinder, which has developed a very loyal fanbase. I wouldn't bet more than $5 that 5e will overtake Pathfinder sales within a year; but then, I wouldn't bet anything that it won't, either. Outlook hazy; ask again later.

 

[Zardnaar]

I think it will be number 1 briefly again but may have trouble selling anything beyond the core rules. 4E at least had a stong early release so if D&DN can't match that and if it struggles in year 2 it may do even worse than 4E did regardless of how good or bad as a game it actually is.

 

[Paraxis]

I dislike the poll options, so haven't voted.

I think it will do about the same as 4th, so at launch it will sell a ton of books because there are plenty of collectors and people who just buy the name brand. But the fan base is fractured so I don't think for example it will have the long term staying power and sales that 3rd edition had.

So success at first but the end sales will not be enough to make Hasbro happy.

 

[Stormonu]

The words "just another fantasy heartbreaker" comes to mind.

 

[Halivar]

It can't overtake Pathfinder because, for all intents and purposes, WotC is not in the business of making adventures, pretty much the only sustainable, continual source of new sales in the RPG market. I mean, once you sell a core book, it's sold. And once everyone has a core book, no one buys it anymore.

I predict a brief spot at #1 on Amazon until it approaches full market saturation. Then sales die down again.