D&D 5E Opinion poll: Once D&D Next is out, how do you think it will do? (based on what we have so far)

[(Psi)SeveredHead]

I voted for the third. Based on polls here (rather than reading messageboard posts) it's actually fairly popular, but I doubt it can displace any currently existing version of D&D.

There's already OSR, SRD, 4e, and Pathfinder to serve different segments of the market. If I ever wanted to play 2.5 (which 5e looks like to me) the OSR market already serves me.

 

[Mistwell]

It depends on the marketing campaign. But, if they're going to do what appears to be coming, it will be huge, and it will not even be much about existing players. I think we're about to see a massive brand launch across everything from toys to linens to movies to you name it, all of which will result in many new players buying at least the basic edition of the game. At least, that is my hope.

For what it is worth, we have lots of prior polls on intent to buy and interest level, and a comparison with the same polls from the launch of 4e showing virtually identical interest and intent-to-buy, and we know 4e outpaced the launch of 3e for at least the first 6 months of 4e. So based on that, I think it's safe to say 5e will do very well for at least the first 6 months. The question is whether it can keep the players who initially buy the core books and not loose too many of them like it did with 4e.

 

[Umbran]

I wouldn't bet more than $5 that 5e will overtake Pathfinder sales within a year;

Oh, it'll overtake Pathfinder sales in the short term. The question is about the long term.

The RPG market is small. It saturates easily. My understanding is that Paizo core book sales are at maintenance levels, and the real business for them is in splatbooks and adventures, right? At first release, that's not the same business as 5e will be in, so they're apples and oranges. Unless 5e is a real flop, it'll beat out Pathfinder until the market saturates with 5e core rulebooks.

The question then becomes, once *both* of them are in the same business (splats and adventures) who comes out on top?

 

[ForeverSlayer]

Oh, it'll overtake Pathfinder sales in the short term. The question is about the long term.

The RPG market is small. It saturates easily. My understanding is that Paizo core book sales are at maintenance levels, and the real business for them is in splatbooks and adventures, right? At first release, that's not the same business as 5e will be in, so they're apples and oranges. Unless 5e is a real flop, it'll beat out Pathfinder until the market saturates with 5e core rulebooks.

The question then becomes, once *both* of them are in the same business (splats and adventures) who comes out on top?

I agree with this.

I also want to add that people will buy the books when it comes out. Even if people don't intend on playing it, they will make a curiosity purchase and even one to add that next edition to their collection. I say it will hit the best seller list, but after that it's probably going to slow down.

 

[fjw70]

A big question on how many books 5e will see will depend a lot on the DDi-like tools that are available. IMO one of the biggest competitors to 4e books was DDi. I have been with the same 4e group for about 2.5 years now and no one in the group (besides me) has bought a single 4e book, and I don't recall any of them actually bringing any books to the table so I don't know that they bought any books before the group formed.

I don't think WotC expected DDi to replace book sales. I think they thought it would just supplement the book sales. It will be interesting to their electronic strategy for 5e.

 

[innerdude]

I think it will do about the same as 4th, so at launch it will sell a ton of books because there are plenty of collectors and people who just buy the name brand. But the fan base is fractured so I don't think for example it will have the long term staying power and sales that 3rd edition had.

So success at first but the end sales will not be enough to make Hasbro happy.

Pretty much this, though in slightly more positive direction. It will be a solid product line, and easily recapture the #1 sales spot. The real test of time, or "fruits of labor" won't be fully seen until 3 years later. If Next gains and maintains a high "mind share," and a high level of passion on the social networks by producing outstanding, quality product, then I think D&D Next has a chance to be something more than "just another fantasy heartbreaker."

Realistically I see it being a game that few people are genuinely passionate about, but since the functional core will be straightforward and largely free of "deal breakers" for most groups, that it will sort of turn into a de facto "fallback game." It will be few people's "favorite edition," but will be played regularly since equally few will radically object to it.

Sort of like Settlers of Catan for board gaming. I can think of a half-dozen board games I'd rather play on any given evening . . . but it's not like a night playing Settlers is a total bummer either.

 

[Jester David]

The success or failure of 5e is mostly out of the hands of WotC. They’re in a hard position, having set themselves up as the “evil empire”. While the D&D brand team seems like really, really excellent and friendly people they just can’t do enough to change the perceptions of the company, and the rest of the company isn’t always making it easy.

The OSR crowd has positioned themselves up as being “the other”. They could be considered the hipsters of the gaming community. They’ve been on the outside so long it will be hard to pull them back.
WotC has done all they can to earn back some trust with the reprints and promises of simplicity. Following through on their promises of a simple base game is an essentially step, as it producing future content (adventures, monsters) that can be used by the base game. Releasing wave after wave of advanced options won’t hold the OSR crowd.

The Paizo crowd are the wild card. Many (like myself) might be swayed away from Pathfinder by a game that feels like classical D&D but is balanced. I like Pathfinder but the class balance can be an issue.
Having enough customization options might help bring in Pathfinder players, as would a robust and supported organized play program. But a number of PF players play because of Paizo the company, and that audience will be harder to sway. There’s brand loyalty, which is hard to compete against. But giving people the tools and options to update Pathfinder APs to 5e might help.

The one audience WotC has the best control over maintaining and winning back is the 4e crowd. But they have to be active. Many 4e fans feel like they’ve been thrown under the bus, having their edition cut short. Prioritizing getting the tactical module ready and enabling set piece fights and rules modules that encourage 4e style play are a must.

 

[Raith5]

The one audience WotC has the best control over maintaining and winning back is the 4e crowd. But they have to be active. Many 4e fans feel like they’ve been thrown under the bus, having their edition cut short. Prioritizing getting the tactical module ready and enabling set piece fights and rules modules that encourage 4e style play are a must.

Great post.

While I am fan of 4th ed, I dont feel thrown under the bus per se - but I dont think DDN has demonstrated that WOTC has learnt from what 4th ed fans see as the advances that the 4th ed represented or really shown how many of these advances will be possible in DDN. Are things like second wind, action points, skill challenges, utility powers etc going to be in an advanced module? So modularity out is going to important to attracting 4th ed (and 13th age) fans to help ensure the usccess of DDN.

 

[Raith5]

Double post

 

[howandwhy99]

This is a long road and Rome wasn't built in a day. Even if the core rules are published on a single day the ultimate success depends on follow through and more of the same. By which I mean the things they designers at Wizards have done well since the start of the project: Listen to what people are saying. Give them what they want. Be flexible and open to new ideas. Unify the community. Respect the people in the community (even when we aren't respecting you). Be inclusive and seek out new people, playstyle support, as well as design. Keep community building activities like DDE fresh and exciting. Be connected. Keep speaking to the community abut what you are doing and why.

The game itself will be one of many in the market no matter what. By virtue of the name D&D most all will pay attention to it. The game has a solid foundation. Keep pressing forward. Don't be afraid to go in directions you never dreamed of. And do what it takes to build respect within the community. A beloved game can last for generations. But it takes care to create, renew, and maintain.