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Opinion poll: Once D&D Next is out, how do you think it will do? (based on what we have so far)
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<blockquote data-quote="Jester David" data-source="post: 6225773" data-attributes="member: 37579"><p>This is very true. At least for the first couple years of Pathfinder when it was a practically unknown game and then it tied with D&D and everyone moved over. </p><p>But the following two years are different. Some of that was is word of mouth. Other sales are people swapping from 3e and 4e. Plus repeat sales as people buy replacement copies or opt for a newer printing with errata. </p><p>But some are new players. There is a whole generation of people being introduced to gaming via Pathfinder and Pathfinder Society. </p><p></p><p>Much of that is Paizo’s focus on the Core Rulebook. The Beginner Box is a soft introduction that then pushes new people to the Core Rulebook. They opted not to redesign the Core Rulebook when they realized more people were coming to Pathfinder than just a few holdouts. </p><p></p><p>WotC can’t expect the same growth as the first couple years of PF, but they can try for the sustained sales. Yes, D&D is a little more well known so there will be a spike followed by a drop in sales. But the trick is to not have sales bottom out but to have a steady stream of lesser sales generating regular profit. </p><p>This can be encouraged. They can work to emphasise the PHB. Such as not releasing a PHB2 that allows you all but ignore the PHB1. Not devaluing the physical books with endless errata (or releasing updated printings with corrections included). Not having a secondary line for new players that also spreads core book sales across three products. And instead of just having Encounter seasons only focus on the new, also push the PHB and core products. </p><p></p><p></p><p>This was true back in 2008. When D&D was king of the world and the d20 system dominated the gaming landscape. The 4e PHB and core books sold amazingly well based on pre-orders and people buying the books sight unseen. </p><p>Now… people might be significantly more wary. The Year One spike will be much less as more people adopt a “wait and see” approach, deciding to buy based on feedback, reviews, and follow-up releases. I pre-ordered the 4e books and damned if I'm going to repeat that mistake with Next. Fool me once...</p><p></p><p>Again, WotC can plan for this. They should be aware of the potential for sustained sales of the PHB and release a smaller initial print run but be ready for secondary printings with minor corrections.</p><p></p><p></p><p>D&D might be the blockbuster, but it’s the franchise rebooting blockbuster. </p><p>Think <em>Batman Begins</em> where the movie did okay in theaters as people were not rushing to see it following <em>Batman & Robin</em>. But then it did excellent in DVD and everyone and their mother went to see <em>The Dark Knight</em>. </p><p>The first year of D&D Next is the reboot. The second year is the sequel. If they knock the core books out of the park, word of mouth and sales will rise. Continue to support new playstyles and options with accessories to the PHB and you’ll attract more and more players to D&D or back to D&D. That can lead to sustained sales.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Jester David, post: 6225773, member: 37579"] This is very true. At least for the first couple years of Pathfinder when it was a practically unknown game and then it tied with D&D and everyone moved over. But the following two years are different. Some of that was is word of mouth. Other sales are people swapping from 3e and 4e. Plus repeat sales as people buy replacement copies or opt for a newer printing with errata. But some are new players. There is a whole generation of people being introduced to gaming via Pathfinder and Pathfinder Society. Much of that is Paizo’s focus on the Core Rulebook. The Beginner Box is a soft introduction that then pushes new people to the Core Rulebook. They opted not to redesign the Core Rulebook when they realized more people were coming to Pathfinder than just a few holdouts. WotC can’t expect the same growth as the first couple years of PF, but they can try for the sustained sales. Yes, D&D is a little more well known so there will be a spike followed by a drop in sales. But the trick is to not have sales bottom out but to have a steady stream of lesser sales generating regular profit. This can be encouraged. They can work to emphasise the PHB. Such as not releasing a PHB2 that allows you all but ignore the PHB1. Not devaluing the physical books with endless errata (or releasing updated printings with corrections included). Not having a secondary line for new players that also spreads core book sales across three products. And instead of just having Encounter seasons only focus on the new, also push the PHB and core products. This was true back in 2008. When D&D was king of the world and the d20 system dominated the gaming landscape. The 4e PHB and core books sold amazingly well based on pre-orders and people buying the books sight unseen. Now… people might be significantly more wary. The Year One spike will be much less as more people adopt a “wait and see” approach, deciding to buy based on feedback, reviews, and follow-up releases. I pre-ordered the 4e books and damned if I'm going to repeat that mistake with Next. Fool me once... Again, WotC can plan for this. They should be aware of the potential for sustained sales of the PHB and release a smaller initial print run but be ready for secondary printings with minor corrections. D&D might be the blockbuster, but it’s the franchise rebooting blockbuster. Think [I]Batman Begins[/I] where the movie did okay in theaters as people were not rushing to see it following [I]Batman & Robin[/I]. But then it did excellent in DVD and everyone and their mother went to see [I]The Dark Knight[/I]. The first year of D&D Next is the reboot. The second year is the sequel. If they knock the core books out of the park, word of mouth and sales will rise. Continue to support new playstyles and options with accessories to the PHB and you’ll attract more and more players to D&D or back to D&D. That can lead to sustained sales. [/QUOTE]
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Opinion poll: Once D&D Next is out, how do you think it will do? (based on what we have so far)
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