At first, 4.0 will be for the ubergamers, who play every weekend. Then after a year or two, they will get bored of this simpler system after they've found every loophole and maxed every min. If WOTC is lucky, they will also attract some "kids" -- new gamers who are trying the offline version of WoW/simpler version of D&D that 4.0 aims to be. The trick is, WOTC will want to add rules bloat ("The Complete Book of Headgear-related Feats", "Return of the Gnome") to keep the ubergamers, but this will intimidate the newbs. Looking at sales figures, WOTC will go with gumming up the works, as they always do, because they are a rules-sales company dominated by ubergamer types.