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Message: <blockquote data-quote="ced1106" data-source="post: 7944963" data-attributes="member: 7551">"Because no one was immune to the new virus, “the majority of the population will be infected” absent the quick arrival of a vaccine or drastic public health interventions such as closing public places and canceling public events,"There is no vaccine yet for the virus. Nobody in a first world country in their 20's to 40's, the "healthy" demographic for the virus, has lived through a period of time when a contagious disease has not had a vaccine. Polio, back in 1955, may be a similar situation to today, since at the time, Americans were waiting for a vaccine for it while it was virulent each summer. Even those who have not been vaccinated benefit from those who have, through the "herd effect", where a critical mass has immunity, suchthat any viral infection in one person is unlikely to spread to another.The fatality rate, though based on Wuhan data is : "For those aged 15 to 44, the fatality rate was 0.5%, though it might have been as low as 0.1% or as high as 1.3%. For people 45 to 64, the fatality rate was also 0.5%, with a possible low of 0.2% and a possible high of 1.1%. For those over 64, it was 2.7%, with a low and high estimate of 1.5% and 4.7%." Assuming the same rate of transmissions and thus infections among age groups, those aged 15 to 44 can have the same fatality as those over 64 by congregating more often at work, school, and social events. A healthy person with a child and going to work five days a week has far more exposure and thus risk than a retired couple at home. Schools are being closed, but cases of elementary and high school children being infected have been reported in Sacramento, CA, and San Francisco Bay Area, CA. Children, of course, do not practice hygiene as well as older adults, so the chance of an adult with a child is much higher than one without. When one member of a household contracts a virus, everyone there typically does.While healthy people are relatively immune, without a vaccine and without precautions, the expected high number of infections means that the actual number of infected healthy people may be higher than the seasonal flu. The high number of severe cases in older victims and those with pre-existing conditions means a shortage of hospital beds. As Dr. Harris' twitter feed put it, "It's the difference between finding an ICU bed & ventilator or being treated in the parking lot tent." Without vaccines, the only way to slow down the spread of the virus so that hospitals are not overwhelmed is by isolation, or "social distancing". Unlike vaccines, this is less meant so you, as an individual, are infected ("containment"), than to not overwhelm hospitals ("mitigation").Taiwan started taking action against CoVid in early January, while only now has the San Franciso Bay Area, one of the area of the country with the highest number victims, taken action. Taiwan has had only one death from CoVid. Meanwhile, the number of US cases is now over one hundred. Perhaps social distancing will have the same "herd effect" as a vaccine for those who choose to still go out. My own hope is that we will have a vaccine by the end of the year so will have a better idea of the actual danger of this virus.[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/13/814602553/coronavirus-faqs-for-the-week-of-3-7-whats-flattening-the-curve-should-i-travel[/URL][URL unfurl="true"]https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/lower-coronavirus-death-rate-estimates/[/URL][URL unfurl="true"]https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/16/taiwan-china-fear-coronavirus-success/[/URL]</blockquote>

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