Peter Jackson's influence on The Hobbit

The only break I can see as working is when Bilbo and Dwarves have their falling out.
del toro said:
What we’re doing is because we have the relationship between Bilbo and Thorin and all the dwarves, there is a logical place for that relationship... There is a moment in the book where something is accomplished that allows us to say, ‘Okay, on to the next one after this.
The end of the relationship over dwarven greed sounds more logical of a breaking point than breaking after a capture of the dwarves.

The Hobbit: The Dragon Of Lonely Mountain [There]
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies [and Back Again]

I too will be mad as hell if I have to wait an extra year for Smaug.
 

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I can see a couple of break points, but really none of them provide a "complete story".

- You can break before Mirkwood, either just before of just after the interlude with Beorn (or omit Beorn altogether, as they did in the animated version). But this is fairly early in the story.

- Break just as the dwarves get captured and dragged into the elven caves (closing shot ... Bilbo outside, invisible, as the dwarves get marched away).

- Break as they escape the elves (Barrels out of Bond) ... so you know they get away, but don't know if the escape is successful ... closing shot is low-riding barrels sailing away down the river, open the next film with Bilbo pulling the dwarves from the water.

- Break when Bilbo splits from the dwarves -- but to do this, you have to add a whole lot to the end of the movie, otherwise the whole film is the Battle of the Five Armies and the journey home -- I don't see how you fill two hours with those topics. It's like splitting a five act play with four acts in the first half and one in the second.

Honestly, I'd vote for compressing a bit and making it one film -- save non-canon transition stuff, or secondary source material for a second movie.
 

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