Basically Malocchio has allied with Drakov, and there’s a not-insignificant number of Falkovnian mercenaries/soldiers/military advisers now stationed in Malicchio’s holdings in Invidia. This has made Borca nervous because if Falkovnia invaded again they could be fighting on two fronts, and also it means if Malocchio gets too troublesome they can’t simply crush invidia without risking a wider war that would involve Vlad. And to get to Invidia in the first place, Vlads troops have to pass through Borca, which they have been doing despite not having permission from Ivan and Ivana. Quite the provocation, and tensions are high there.So I've lost the thread a bit here on Invidia in international politics, how has Invidia been involved?
And on the other side, relations are bad between Malocchio and Strahd because of Malocchio’s persecution of the Vistani, but they’re not much better between Gabrielle and Strahd because of Gabrielle’s links to the Gundarakite independence movement, the relative success of which in Invidia is encouraging the similar movement in Barovia. S speculates that Strahd might be tempted to just simply invade and crush the lot of them and take over - he did the same with eastern Gundarak when Duke Gundar died, and he doesn’t care about alliances with Vlad since Barovia and Falkovnia don’t share a border and Vlad can’t get at him. And Azalin may be encouraging him to do this, presumably because if Malocchio has to flee Invidia then Azalin gets the chance to offer ‘sanctuary’ in Darkon and have a pet dukkar of his very own.