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<blockquote data-quote="Haffrung" data-source="post: 7871132" data-attributes="member: 6776259"><p>Paizo's hopes for PF2 lie in converting 5E players. They can't rely on PF1 players alone, because barring the kind of boom we're seeing with D&D today (which is all about Stranger Things, Critical Role, and all things nerdy being normalized, not bounded accuracy or the action economy) the player-base for every RPG gradually withers and dies off.</p><p></p><p>I suppose they could have just accepted shrinking down to a Green Ronin-sized company, letting most of the staff go, and releasing a handful of books a year. But really, standing still was not an option if they wanted to remain a big player in the hobby. The Pathfinder player-base has been shrinking relentlessly for years, to where I'd presume it's a fraction of the size it was 6 or 7 years ago. Hanging on to 100 per cent of those players is unrealistic, though they probably expect to hold onto at least half of them. The rest of their growth has to come from new players, and the obvious place is 5E players looking for something a little different.</p><p></p><p>So let's say Paizo expects/hopes the audience for PF2 is 30 per cent returning PF1 players and 70 per cent new players. These people who you say are disappointed with the way Paizo has gone with PF2 are frankly small potatoes at this scale. The difference between a retention rate of 70 per cent PF1 players vs 50 per cent PF1 players isn't going to make or break the success of PF2, not when existing players are expected to make up only a fraction of sales for the new edition.</p><p></p><p>I'd thought that Paizo might attract 10-15 per cent of the D&D 5E player-base to at least try it out. And given how huge the 5E audience has become, that this would be enough to restore Pathfinder to something close to its peak years in sales.</p><p></p><p>Now I'm starting to think that PF2 won't attract anything close to 10-15 per cent of the D&D 5E player-base. But I don't think that's because of the mechanical issues people argue over on these forums. I think it's because the growth in 5E has been almost exclusively with casual and more narrative-focused players, many of whom barely even engage with the system at all and play for the social engagement. Hobby boardgames saw the same thing, where the explosive growth in participation in recent years has been overwhelmingly at the casual/low-complexity level.</p><p></p><p>Which is why I think Paizo need a breakout hit AP to attract veteran 5E players who aren't averse to complexity and are looking for a great campaign to run. Because a system this complex will not appeal to players who don't like to engage intensely with mechanics (the bulk of the 5E player-base), and the existing PF1 player-base is too small to support the game at the scale Paizo operates.</p><p></p><p>Oh, and to address your AP question: the reason APs haven't sustained the popularity of Pathfinder in recent years is because A) as I said, the PF1 player-base has been attriting away relentlessly because that's just what happens as RPGs age, and B) the recent APs have not been especially good (judging by ratings) or generated a lot of buzz.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Haffrung, post: 7871132, member: 6776259"] Paizo's hopes for PF2 lie in converting 5E players. They can't rely on PF1 players alone, because barring the kind of boom we're seeing with D&D today (which is all about Stranger Things, Critical Role, and all things nerdy being normalized, not bounded accuracy or the action economy) the player-base for every RPG gradually withers and dies off. I suppose they could have just accepted shrinking down to a Green Ronin-sized company, letting most of the staff go, and releasing a handful of books a year. But really, standing still was not an option if they wanted to remain a big player in the hobby. The Pathfinder player-base has been shrinking relentlessly for years, to where I'd presume it's a fraction of the size it was 6 or 7 years ago. Hanging on to 100 per cent of those players is unrealistic, though they probably expect to hold onto at least half of them. The rest of their growth has to come from new players, and the obvious place is 5E players looking for something a little different. So let's say Paizo expects/hopes the audience for PF2 is 30 per cent returning PF1 players and 70 per cent new players. These people who you say are disappointed with the way Paizo has gone with PF2 are frankly small potatoes at this scale. The difference between a retention rate of 70 per cent PF1 players vs 50 per cent PF1 players isn't going to make or break the success of PF2, not when existing players are expected to make up only a fraction of sales for the new edition. I'd thought that Paizo might attract 10-15 per cent of the D&D 5E player-base to at least try it out. And given how huge the 5E audience has become, that this would be enough to restore Pathfinder to something close to its peak years in sales. Now I'm starting to think that PF2 won't attract anything close to 10-15 per cent of the D&D 5E player-base. But I don't think that's because of the mechanical issues people argue over on these forums. I think it's because the growth in 5E has been almost exclusively with casual and more narrative-focused players, many of whom barely even engage with the system at all and play for the social engagement. Hobby boardgames saw the same thing, where the explosive growth in participation in recent years has been overwhelmingly at the casual/low-complexity level. Which is why I think Paizo need a breakout hit AP to attract veteran 5E players who aren't averse to complexity and are looking for a great campaign to run. Because a system this complex will not appeal to players who don't like to engage intensely with mechanics (the bulk of the 5E player-base), and the existing PF1 player-base is too small to support the game at the scale Paizo operates. Oh, and to address your AP question: the reason APs haven't sustained the popularity of Pathfinder in recent years is because A) as I said, the PF1 player-base has been attriting away relentlessly because that's just what happens as RPGs age, and B) the recent APs have not been especially good (judging by ratings) or generated a lot of buzz. [/QUOTE]
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