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Message: <blockquote data-quote="BryonD" data-source="post: 7977110" data-attributes="member: 957">I don't think the marketplace shrank.  And Pathfinder got a ton of media coverage, etc.  I think there is a lot of evidence to think that it was huge right when it took off (release date was 8/13/09 FWIW).  But, yeah, I can't quantify that.  And did it plateau quickly and just hold on for a while?  No idea, but my guess would be it got to more flat than up pretty fast.But I also am very confident that PF the day PF2E was announced was WAY below PF at its peak.  Obviously 5E is the answer.  Though even two years ago "Pathfinder" was 9 years old and really it was still 3X, which was old enough to vote.If you think PF2E is doing about the same as PF was 2 to 3 years ago, then I don't think I can argue with you.  Unfortunately, if there was a way to prove an answer, I'd guess it was down a little.  But I wouldn't bet more money that I'd be happy to lose on a "fun bet".  And regardless, I agree that it is in the same range.But if we are saying that PF2E isn't a LOT bigger than PF was 2 to 3 years ago, then IMO, PF2E has not achieved a gamers' success.   And I really tend to doubt the same amount of sales they already had was the planning target they used to start up the development cycle.  They certainly got a slug of cash with the release sales spike.  But I just don't for a second think a splash in the pan and then back to the same old far distant second they already had a firm grip on was the plan.  And I don't think they paid to ship a giant stack of books to GenCon and then pay again to ship those books to their warehouse, just so they would have extras.  I'm not even sure you can say anything is "stable" right now.  It came out in August and plunged through the quarter.  It got a nice spike (along with 5E) around Xmas and then dropped again.  And then Corona hit and all bets are off.  But even without the last bit, there hasn't been enough time to call anything stable.  I'd be curious what people consider their late April 2020 standards of expectation for October 2020.Bottom line, it sounds like we agree on the optics of ballparking the quantifying.  I think you are much more forgiving on the qualitative evaluation of those optics.  And you say we would never know, but keep in mind that there is also simply a significant lack of broad based enthusiasm.  Yes, the fans who love it love it.  But I don't find that wide excitement in game stores or anywhere online.  Even the Paizo forums are less than on fire.When PF was originally announced there were a lot of people saying that nothing could ever ever ever take on the brand which is D&D.  And, yes, we agree that 4E had more to do with the outcome than PF.  But the certainty was wrong.  Is it reasonable to expect this to happen twice?  No, not really.  Anything is possible.  But I can't imagine that was part of Paizo's plan either.  There must have been a reasonable in between of "significantly better than we have now without being forced to try to match the domination which is 5E".And this part is just me speaking purely from my own gut feeling, but I truly believe that the name recognition of both "Paizo" and "Pathfinder" could have put a second major player on the table if they had built a game with broader appeal.  It wouldn't have to put fear into WotC beancounters.  But it could have been a lot more than it is achieving.  And all signs point to a downward trend.</blockquote>

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