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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Porridge" data-source="post: 7977240" data-attributes="member: 7020143">By the way, thank you for posting this. It's great to get some quantitative data (not merely ranking data) to sink one's teeth into.(Where did you get this, by the way? Do you have access to more than a year of data? If you did, one could start making educated guesses about all sorts of things, like what the typical spike/drop-off rates for new TTRPGs are, and what edition change conversion rates tend to look like.)Anyway, with this data set, I'm inclined to bracket the months of 8/2019 (with the unrepresentative spike that comes with a new game) and 3/2020 (where everything goes haywire due to COVID-19 madness). Other than these two months, though, these numbers are relatively stable in the pre and post PF2 regimes, so they give us some nice numbers to work with. A couple of these numbers:<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Pre-PF2 release, the average number of PF1 games/month was approximately 3100.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Pre-PF2 release, the average number of PF2 playtest games/month was approximately 250.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Post PF2-release, the average number of PF1 games/month was approximately 2500.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Post-PF2 release, the average number of PF2 games/month was approximately 2200.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">For context, pre and post PF2-release, the average number of D&D 5e games/month was approximately 19500.</li> </ul>A couple interesting things we can glean from this:<ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">The average number of PF1 games/month only dropped by about 600 (20%) when PF2 came out.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Post-PF2 release, the average number of PF1 games/month has been about 300 (12%) greater than the average number of PF2 games/month.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Pre-PF2 release, the net number of PF games/month was approximately 3350.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Post-PF2 release, the net number of PF games/month was approximately 4700.</li> </ol>--Regarding #1 and #2: PF1 seems to currently be getting a bit more play than PF2. Whether this is due to (a) people finishing long PF1 AP campaigns, or (b) waiting for more material to come out so they can convert their characters, or (c) because they simply prefer PF1 to PF2, is impossible to tell at this point.I'd expect to get feel for the size of (a) once we've got about two years of data to see whether there's a gradual decline in PF1 games and a corresponding increase in PF2 games. I'd expect to get a feel for the size of (b) by seeing whether there are little bumps of PF1-to-PF2 conversions after major crunch-book releases (e.g., the PF2 Advanced Players Guide). And I'd expect to get a feel for the size of (c) by gauging the extent to which we don't see (a) and (b)-style shifts.Regarding #3 and #4: Interestingly, the total size of PF games seems to have increased substantially (by about 40%, or 1400 games/month) with the release of PF2. And the majority of these games didn't come at the expense of PF1, which only dropped about 600 games. So where did they come from?The data's too noisy for me to make this out. It could be that many of those players came from D&D 5e -- the average number of D&D 5e games/month decreased by about 1000 post-PF2 release -- but the number of D&D 5e players is very large, the data pretty noisy, and the sample size pretty small. That makes it hard to confidently draw any conclusions like that. (I.e., there are month-to-month swings in the number of D&D 5e that are substantially larger than 1000 games, so this could just be noise.)</blockquote>

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