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<blockquote data-quote="Porridge" data-source="post: 7983678" data-attributes="member: 7020143"><p>I think you got confused about which numbers I'm comparing. (Which is reasonable; I can see how my post was confusing without some context.) To help provide that context:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The May 5th-7th numbers weren't the big dips and drops I was talking about -- those are the numbers I was saying were very stable. (As you say, the difference between 118 and 127, and between 2900 and 3700, is relatively small.)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">If you expand the earlier post I quoted, you'll see a description of the contrasting numbers I was talking about. These were differences between, for example, 50, 210, 25 and 120 (rough 5e averages, respectively, before the coronavirus slump/during the coronavirus slump/during its recent sale/during the last couple day slump). Those differences indicate substantial changes in sales numbers.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The reason 5e numbers are interesting isn't because anyone thinks there's any real competition between 5e and PF2 -- 5e sales are an order of magnitude larger. The reason they're interesting is because there are big peaks and valleys to all TTRPG book sales throughout the year (e.g., there's always a big dip right around Christmas), and 5e sales are big enough and stable enough to provide a good reference point for whether an increase or decrease in sales of a product (e.g., PF2) is due to something specific to that product, or whether it's due to a general ebb/swell in TTRPG sales.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">In order to get a feel for assessing when changes are due to noise or not, I highly recommend looking at the first link I gave above, with the daily aggregate rankings over time. Looking through those gives one a clear sense for what the noisy changes of day-to-day variation look like, and what the trend line differences look like.</li> </ul><p></p><p></p><p>Yeah, absolutely true. (And I'll add to this that the interesting differences are percentage increases/decreases in sales, not how many books were sold. A 200 book difference in monthly sales is a much bigger deal for Paizo than for WotC.)</p><p></p><p>But the shifts I was talking about take that into account. E.g., the PF2 numbers I was comparing were numbers in the 3000 range (over the last couple days) and numbers in the 5000-10000 range (averaging around 7500) that PF2 has been mired in since early March.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Porridge, post: 7983678, member: 7020143"] I think you got confused about which numbers I'm comparing. (Which is reasonable; I can see how my post was confusing without some context.) To help provide that context: [LIST] [*]The May 5th-7th numbers weren't the big dips and drops I was talking about -- those are the numbers I was saying were very stable. (As you say, the difference between 118 and 127, and between 2900 and 3700, is relatively small.) [*]If you expand the earlier post I quoted, you'll see a description of the contrasting numbers I was talking about. These were differences between, for example, 50, 210, 25 and 120 (rough 5e averages, respectively, before the coronavirus slump/during the coronavirus slump/during its recent sale/during the last couple day slump). Those differences indicate substantial changes in sales numbers. [*]The reason 5e numbers are interesting isn't because anyone thinks there's any real competition between 5e and PF2 -- 5e sales are an order of magnitude larger. The reason they're interesting is because there are big peaks and valleys to all TTRPG book sales throughout the year (e.g., there's always a big dip right around Christmas), and 5e sales are big enough and stable enough to provide a good reference point for whether an increase or decrease in sales of a product (e.g., PF2) is due to something specific to that product, or whether it's due to a general ebb/swell in TTRPG sales. [*]In order to get a feel for assessing when changes are due to noise or not, I highly recommend looking at the first link I gave above, with the daily aggregate rankings over time. Looking through those gives one a clear sense for what the noisy changes of day-to-day variation look like, and what the trend line differences look like. [/LIST] Yeah, absolutely true. (And I'll add to this that the interesting differences are percentage increases/decreases in sales, not how many books were sold. A 200 book difference in monthly sales is a much bigger deal for Paizo than for WotC.) But the shifts I was talking about take that into account. E.g., the PF2 numbers I was comparing were numbers in the 3000 range (over the last couple days) and numbers in the 5000-10000 range (averaging around 7500) that PF2 has been mired in since early March. [/QUOTE]
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