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<blockquote data-quote="JmanTheDM" data-source="post: 8193932" data-attributes="member: 6791902"><p>I look at all this data and wonder if we are not missing something, or discounting something that's big. While the sunk cost fallacy is real and can sink even the biggest ships (looking at you, in an odd way, Blackberry), I do wonder if a brand-new edition that's < 2 years old which is trying a number of different sales techniques (eg. lost omens world books), and for us to NOT see any drastic changes to format, release schedule or "strategic pivots with the PF RPG line" signifies something completely different than the doom and gloom this thread implies. Because, and this is just my opinion, when something is brand new you have the lowest sunk cost at that point and the most flexibility to adapt on-the-fly to adjust due to misaligned expectations.</p><p></p><p>If you accept the fact that the Pathfinder line is likely the most important product line at Paizo for revenue, and not seeing a fundamental change in their 2nd edition Paizo release and content strategy after 1+ years of real-time "market research", I can guess 3 different things might be going on:</p><p>a) Sales are good-enough to justify this "all in" release schedule with monthly AP's, 4x core books and n lost omens books per year including flip mats, standee's and supplemental decks. good enough to maintain staffing levels as we (I don't think) hear about layoffs or other non-normal employee initiated attrition losses</p><p>b) paizo was sitting on a pile of cash. they have been burning through this cash with the company being mismanaged praying that future splat books will bring in the #'s of gamers that the core books didn't do to "save them" ala hail Mary. (sunk cost here, as they are not trying anything new and thus apparently doubling down on a failed product line)</p><p>c) paizo has sufficiently diversified their products such that PF2e, while still very important is no longer the cash king it once was needed to be to keep paizo afloat. </p><p></p><p>I do wonder, specifically pertaining to point a above if we are not underestimating the impact their subscription services has on their bottom line. I may completely misremember this, but I think publishers have to discount by approx 50% the MSRP of their books to get it into distributors and retail. Paizo sells at close to retail with their subscription so they are "earning" 2x the cash for every 1 sub that consumer would generate if they bought from Amazon. WOTC doesn't have any of the subscription services so amazon rankings would be distortive. While Amazon would be foolish to ignore Amazon, they are HIGHLY incented to increase Sub's unlike WotC which must rely 100% on 3rd party distribution.</p><p></p><p>I personally think its a combination of (in order) c) diversification and a) good-enough sales. the slice of pie in the sales pie chart that represents Pathfinder RPG no longer needs to be the same size it used to for Paizo to remain a successful small company. that's a very good thing and unlike most in this threat indicates IMO good strategic management rather than mismanagement or short sightedness.</p><p></p><p>and not to think I'm completely biased, here's my quick take on where I think I'm full of it - especially with the "good enough" justification above:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">licensing PF to Pinnacle for Savage Worlds. this is brand new! and was never (presumably) required in PF1e days</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">the current complete lack of 3PP 2e material getting released.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">reworking digital content for adventures to try and make them more VTT friendly. this feels like customer service but also feels like needing to support GM's to add content to their own campaigns instead of relying on VTT's to publish content in a timely manner</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">increasing costs on Organized play content from Paizo store. its a bad time to increase costs if you ask me.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Continuing to grow their computer game licenses through Owlcat games with a new game. with it NOT being 2e</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">a crowd source release of a PF1e AP (kingmaker) as a "one-time" deal, but could signify a market test to gauge interest in reskinning old AP's</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">changing AP format in 1st 1/2 of 2021 by releasing 2 3-part AP's instead of 1 6 part mega-AP. this could also signify a shift in their strategic thinking</li> </ul><p></p><p>but with all that said, I remain an optimist and think paizo is doing OK and we're in for a few more years of frantic product releases following a similar format - even if Amazon "stats" indicate they are number 3 qazillion out of 3 qazillion and 1 all-time book sellers. <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" class="smilie smilie--sprite smilie--sprite1" alt=":)" title="Smile :)" loading="lazy" data-shortname=":)" /> </p><p></p><p>Cheers.</p><p></p><p>J.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="JmanTheDM, post: 8193932, member: 6791902"] I look at all this data and wonder if we are not missing something, or discounting something that's big. While the sunk cost fallacy is real and can sink even the biggest ships (looking at you, in an odd way, Blackberry), I do wonder if a brand-new edition that's < 2 years old which is trying a number of different sales techniques (eg. lost omens world books), and for us to NOT see any drastic changes to format, release schedule or "strategic pivots with the PF RPG line" signifies something completely different than the doom and gloom this thread implies. Because, and this is just my opinion, when something is brand new you have the lowest sunk cost at that point and the most flexibility to adapt on-the-fly to adjust due to misaligned expectations. If you accept the fact that the Pathfinder line is likely the most important product line at Paizo for revenue, and not seeing a fundamental change in their 2nd edition Paizo release and content strategy after 1+ years of real-time "market research", I can guess 3 different things might be going on: a) Sales are good-enough to justify this "all in" release schedule with monthly AP's, 4x core books and n lost omens books per year including flip mats, standee's and supplemental decks. good enough to maintain staffing levels as we (I don't think) hear about layoffs or other non-normal employee initiated attrition losses b) paizo was sitting on a pile of cash. they have been burning through this cash with the company being mismanaged praying that future splat books will bring in the #'s of gamers that the core books didn't do to "save them" ala hail Mary. (sunk cost here, as they are not trying anything new and thus apparently doubling down on a failed product line) c) paizo has sufficiently diversified their products such that PF2e, while still very important is no longer the cash king it once was needed to be to keep paizo afloat. I do wonder, specifically pertaining to point a above if we are not underestimating the impact their subscription services has on their bottom line. I may completely misremember this, but I think publishers have to discount by approx 50% the MSRP of their books to get it into distributors and retail. Paizo sells at close to retail with their subscription so they are "earning" 2x the cash for every 1 sub that consumer would generate if they bought from Amazon. WOTC doesn't have any of the subscription services so amazon rankings would be distortive. While Amazon would be foolish to ignore Amazon, they are HIGHLY incented to increase Sub's unlike WotC which must rely 100% on 3rd party distribution. I personally think its a combination of (in order) c) diversification and a) good-enough sales. the slice of pie in the sales pie chart that represents Pathfinder RPG no longer needs to be the same size it used to for Paizo to remain a successful small company. that's a very good thing and unlike most in this threat indicates IMO good strategic management rather than mismanagement or short sightedness. and not to think I'm completely biased, here's my quick take on where I think I'm full of it - especially with the "good enough" justification above: [LIST] [*]licensing PF to Pinnacle for Savage Worlds. this is brand new! and was never (presumably) required in PF1e days [*]the current complete lack of 3PP 2e material getting released. [*]reworking digital content for adventures to try and make them more VTT friendly. this feels like customer service but also feels like needing to support GM's to add content to their own campaigns instead of relying on VTT's to publish content in a timely manner [*]increasing costs on Organized play content from Paizo store. its a bad time to increase costs if you ask me. [*]Continuing to grow their computer game licenses through Owlcat games with a new game. with it NOT being 2e [*]a crowd source release of a PF1e AP (kingmaker) as a "one-time" deal, but could signify a market test to gauge interest in reskinning old AP's [*]changing AP format in 1st 1/2 of 2021 by releasing 2 3-part AP's instead of 1 6 part mega-AP. this could also signify a shift in their strategic thinking [/LIST] but with all that said, I remain an optimist and think paizo is doing OK and we're in for a few more years of frantic product releases following a similar format - even if Amazon "stats" indicate they are number 3 qazillion out of 3 qazillion and 1 all-time book sellers. :) Cheers. J. [/QUOTE]
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