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<blockquote data-quote="fearsomepirate" data-source="post: 8194392" data-attributes="member: 7021420"><p>Worth remembering that D&D is so dominant in its own market that getting 10% of the TTRPG market is enough to make you a very comfortable #2.</p><p></p><p>Here's a really critical thing to remember about hobby markets:<strong> most users are casual users</strong>. We can be talking about model trains, video games, TTRPGs, CCGs, or fly fishing. Doesn't matter. Most users are casual users. As soon as you start talking about the person who does X for years and really wants to dive deep into skill/complexity, you're talking about somebody who represents, let's be generous, maybe 1% to 5% of customers. Somebody who cares enough about a product to post online about it is in a tiny sliver of customers, so talk on forums or whatever is extremely non-representative of the customer base. </p><p></p><p>Most people play for a while and quit. Some people continue playing for a long time. Only a tiny, tiny number of people become true hobbyists, continually plumbing the depths of what the hobby has to offer. These people are a paradox: they spend high quantities of money, allowing marginal products to succeed, but they are <em>extremely</em> tiny in number, and so do not drive larger trends. In concrete terms, waiting for "deep crunch systems" to pass some sort of tipping point and become a serious competitor to the mass market phenomenon is like waiting for ARMA to catch up to Call of Duty. Your typical customer is gone after a few years, usually less than that, and doing something else completely, not looking to go deeper.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="fearsomepirate, post: 8194392, member: 7021420"] Worth remembering that D&D is so dominant in its own market that getting 10% of the TTRPG market is enough to make you a very comfortable #2. Here's a really critical thing to remember about hobby markets:[B] most users are casual users[/B]. We can be talking about model trains, video games, TTRPGs, CCGs, or fly fishing. Doesn't matter. Most users are casual users. As soon as you start talking about the person who does X for years and really wants to dive deep into skill/complexity, you're talking about somebody who represents, let's be generous, maybe 1% to 5% of customers. Somebody who cares enough about a product to post online about it is in a tiny sliver of customers, so talk on forums or whatever is extremely non-representative of the customer base. Most people play for a while and quit. Some people continue playing for a long time. Only a tiny, tiny number of people become true hobbyists, continually plumbing the depths of what the hobby has to offer. These people are a paradox: they spend high quantities of money, allowing marginal products to succeed, but they are [I]extremely[/I] tiny in number, and so do not drive larger trends. In concrete terms, waiting for "deep crunch systems" to pass some sort of tipping point and become a serious competitor to the mass market phenomenon is like waiting for ARMA to catch up to Call of Duty. Your typical customer is gone after a few years, usually less than that, and doing something else completely, not looking to go deeper. [/QUOTE]
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