D&D 5E Rolled character stats higher than point buy?

[Guest 6801328]

Since my opening post this has been about rolling stats vs point buy. And why rolled stats are higher. Which is ultimately about why it's a bad decision to ever use point buy when you have the option of rolling.

That's a statistical fallacy: you can't apply probabilities to discrete events. What you're saying is only true if you're going to be rolling lots of characters. If you're creating ONE character and you get really bad rolls, then it was clearly a bad decision to use rolling.

Your claim is analogous to saying that it's a bad decision to ever buy insurance, because insurance premiums are calculated as a probability of incurred cost, plus profit for the insurance company. So, yes, if lots of people don't buy insurance on average they all save money. And a few of them get royally hosed.

 

[FrogReaver]

That's a statistical fallacy: you can't apply probabilities to discrete events. What you're saying is only true if you're going to be rolling lots of characters. If you're creating ONE character and you get really bad rolls, then it was clearly a bad decision to use rolling.

Your claim is analogous to saying that it's a bad decision to ever buy insurance, because insurance premiums are calculated as a probability of incurred cost, plus profit for the insurance company. So, yes, if lots of people don't buy insurance on average they all save money. And a few of them get royally hosed.

Not so. Just because a bad outcome occurred doesn't mean that you made a bad decision. Bad outcomes don't equal bad decisions.

As for insurance you must look at the outcomes to understand why this isn't the same kind of comparison.
What is the outcome if I wreck with no insurance?
What is the outcome if I wreck with insurance?
What is the outcome if I do not wreck with insurance?
What is the outcome if I do not wreck without insurance?

If I wreck without insurance I am doomed. I cannot pay the tens of thousands of dollars I will owe for the cars and hospital bills.

Insurance is a small price to pay so that I do not take such a risk, even though I pay more into the insurance than I am expected to use.