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Rule of Three: 7 Feb. 2014
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<blockquote data-quote="pemerton" data-source="post: 6261266" data-attributes="member: 42582"><p>A 13th level fighter with 16 CON needs to roll 8 to succeed on a DC 15 CON save (+3 stat, +4 prof). With advantage (from Indomitable) that makes the chance of failure (7/20)^2 = 49/400, or a little more than 10%. Which means that the chance of success is 351/400, or a little less than 90% (87.75% to be exact). Over three consecutive attacks that's still better than a 2 in 3 chance of staying up at 1 hp.</p><p></p><p>As for Blight: that's a 4th level spell, so at least 7th level. Let's assume a 20 INT and proficiency. At 7th level that's a DC of 16; at 13th that's a DC of 17.</p><p></p><p>A 7th level fighter has a CON save of +6 (assuming 16 CON); that's therefore 10 to save, so a 55% chance; and 67 hp (10 + 6*6 +21). Average damage from 8d8 is 36, so expected damage is .55*18 + .45*36 = 9.9 + 16.2 = 26.1. So somewhat less than half hit points. </p><p></p><p>The fighter at that level gets two attacks at +8 (assuming 20 CON) for 9.5 average damage before crits (assuming a longsword). Assuming the mage has an AC around 13, that's 5 to hit, with 3/14 hits being crits. So expected damage is 2*0.8*9.5 + 2*8/14 = 15.2 +16/14. Which is just over 16 and a third hp of damage. A mage at that level (assuming 14 CON) has 6 + 6*4 + 12 = 42 hp. This is the same proportion of the mage's hp in damage as the mage's attack on the fighter (around 40%).</p><p></p><p>Now at 13th level:</p><p></p><p>At 13th the fighter has +7 to CON saves, plus advantage; that's therefore 9 or less twice to fail, or 81/400, so 319/400 to save; hit points for a fighter at that level = 121 (10 + 6*12 + 39). Average damage for Blight in a 7th level slot is 11d8 = 49.5. So expected damage is 81*49.5/400 + 319*49.5/800 = 29.761875. So just a smidgeon less than one quarter hit points. (The 7th level attack spell Finger of Death does 12d8 rather than 11d8. That lifts the expected damage to 31.86, or just a smidgeon over one quarter of the fighter's hp.)</p><p></p><p>Now the fighter's attacks vs the mage: assuming an AC of 14 for the mage, that's still a 5 to hit. With three attacks. So expected damage is half as much again as 7th level, or just over 24.5. The mage's hp are 6 + 12*4 + 26 = 80 hp. So the fighter is doing somewhat over 30% of the mage's hit points.</p><p></p><p>Is this balanced? It seems to me that the fighter is pretty capable in combat relative to the mage. The balance issues, if they're there, would be in the scope of the mage's capabilities, I think. Or Polymorph: the fighter's chance of making a Will save of DC 16 is probably not much better than 1 in 4. (Plane Shift is a 7th level save-or-suck spell, but gives that target two saves, DEX and CHA. An Indomitable fighter therefore gets 4 rolls. That's probably in the neighbourhood of a 2/3 chance of success. If I were a mage I'd stick with Polymorph as my go-to save-or-suck.)</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="pemerton, post: 6261266, member: 42582"] A 13th level fighter with 16 CON needs to roll 8 to succeed on a DC 15 CON save (+3 stat, +4 prof). With advantage (from Indomitable) that makes the chance of failure (7/20)^2 = 49/400, or a little more than 10%. Which means that the chance of success is 351/400, or a little less than 90% (87.75% to be exact). Over three consecutive attacks that's still better than a 2 in 3 chance of staying up at 1 hp. As for Blight: that's a 4th level spell, so at least 7th level. Let's assume a 20 INT and proficiency. At 7th level that's a DC of 16; at 13th that's a DC of 17. A 7th level fighter has a CON save of +6 (assuming 16 CON); that's therefore 10 to save, so a 55% chance; and 67 hp (10 + 6*6 +21). Average damage from 8d8 is 36, so expected damage is .55*18 + .45*36 = 9.9 + 16.2 = 26.1. So somewhat less than half hit points. The fighter at that level gets two attacks at +8 (assuming 20 CON) for 9.5 average damage before crits (assuming a longsword). Assuming the mage has an AC around 13, that's 5 to hit, with 3/14 hits being crits. So expected damage is 2*0.8*9.5 + 2*8/14 = 15.2 +16/14. Which is just over 16 and a third hp of damage. A mage at that level (assuming 14 CON) has 6 + 6*4 + 12 = 42 hp. This is the same proportion of the mage's hp in damage as the mage's attack on the fighter (around 40%). Now at 13th level: At 13th the fighter has +7 to CON saves, plus advantage; that's therefore 9 or less twice to fail, or 81/400, so 319/400 to save; hit points for a fighter at that level = 121 (10 + 6*12 + 39). Average damage for Blight in a 7th level slot is 11d8 = 49.5. So expected damage is 81*49.5/400 + 319*49.5/800 = 29.761875. So just a smidgeon less than one quarter hit points. (The 7th level attack spell Finger of Death does 12d8 rather than 11d8. That lifts the expected damage to 31.86, or just a smidgeon over one quarter of the fighter's hp.) Now the fighter's attacks vs the mage: assuming an AC of 14 for the mage, that's still a 5 to hit. With three attacks. So expected damage is half as much again as 7th level, or just over 24.5. The mage's hp are 6 + 12*4 + 26 = 80 hp. So the fighter is doing somewhat over 30% of the mage's hit points. Is this balanced? It seems to me that the fighter is pretty capable in combat relative to the mage. The balance issues, if they're there, would be in the scope of the mage's capabilities, I think. Or Polymorph: the fighter's chance of making a Will save of DC 16 is probably not much better than 1 in 4. (Plane Shift is a 7th level save-or-suck spell, but gives that target two saves, DEX and CHA. An Indomitable fighter therefore gets 4 rolls. That's probably in the neighbourhood of a 2/3 chance of success. If I were a mage I'd stick with Polymorph as my go-to save-or-suck.) [/QUOTE]
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