Ryan Dancey speaks - the Most Successful Year for Fantasy RPGaming ever. However...

[pogre]

If CPUs are the end all be all, why are miniature sales increasing across the board? There is something about "being there" that adds to the excitement and enjoyment of the game. I can play bridge online, but it is not nearly as much fun as playing in a live contract tournament.

I essentially agree about younger folks being drawn off to cpu games. They are not necessarily lost forever though.

The key is, as many have stated above, D&D requires too much effort for some folks. That's the barrier that cannot be overcome in tabletop games.

 

[jester47]

I think the corprate model will collapse. However the groups that continue will work off of the OGL and d20 SRD to create a pdf sub market. Print WILL go by the wayside.

 

[helium3]

It's funny. From what I understand, ten or fifteen years ago the computer rpg business was in the doghouse. I don't think that people in the industry at that time could have imagined the level of success that today's software gaming companies enjoy. And really, with rare exception, I don't get the impression that today's game software companies are really all that succesful.

People have a bad tendency to extrapolate current trends much further into the future than they should. My prediction is that the technological improvements that led to the rise of MMORPGs are more than half done, and maybe mostly done. All you're going to see for the near future are better interfaces, better graphics and other incremental improvements. That will be nice, but eventually the market is going to have to stagnate as the 18,000 other WoW-like MMORPGs that are currently in development come online.

What will the next innovation be that is analogous a jump from TTRPGS to MMORPGS? I don't know. All I can imagine is that it'll be of the same order of magnitude. Probably either something along the lines of a more immersive gaming experience or a more interactive and customizeable gaming environment. But honestly, I don't know and I'm skeptical that such an innovation is even remotely close. People seem to be assuming that this interest in playing fantasy games that people have will even last. I can easily imagine a world where fantasy simply gets "boring" and "trite" and the vast majority of people turn to entirely different past-times.

 

[painandgreed]

You can find Mike's response (and others) to this here:
http://www.livejournal.com/users/mearls/116408.html

Who are the people who can't find groups? They're not D&D players - remember, D&D's strength is that so many people play, it's easy to find a group.

Whatever. Most the people I know that play WoW play D&D. Some would rather play D&D in fact. There's a big difference between getting everybody together at a house of suitable size and location from all across the city or even state or saying "be online at 8:00 on server Wysiwyg".

 

[pogre]

Here are the reasons CPU RPGing is dominating and will continue to dominate - from http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051221/ap_on_he_me/us_at_play

People are doing less sports, card playing, and other activities where they have to get off their rears and leave the house.

 

[FickleGM]

I think that the computer games will continue to branch into other genres (Star Wars already has an online presence), which will increase the impact.

What will the end result of the improved graphics/storylines/genre availability/cost/etc. be? Who knows. Perhaps a scaling back of tabletop endeavors... Perhaps a dot.com type saturation of the online game market (what, you mean that's already happening?)...

Neither will kill the other, but things will obviously change and we will obviously adjust (kicking and screaming if necessary).

 

[barsoomcore]

Shrug.

This all seems like so much unecessary drama.

TRPGs have never been very popular and never will be. The very things that make them a unique pastime (utter freedom of creativity, endless expandability, easily improvised) make them difficult for many folks to enjoy -- they require a lot of reading, a lot of weighing options and a lot of spontaneity, which don't always add up to a fun time for plenty of people. MMORPGs place less of these requirements on players, but also offer less of those virtues.

I don't relish power-ups or button-mashing or cool graphics, so MMORPGs have so far failed to win me over. I'd rather be making up stories with my friends, and I enjoy memorizing thousands of obscure facts, so TRPGs are just the thing for me and my little brain. And I haven't seen MMORPGs cannabilizing my players -- quite the opposite. Most folks I know who play both have eagerly put aside WoW in order to jump into my games, often citing that they're tired of online play and look forward to some dice-rolling, paper-pushing fun.

I don't doubt that MMORGPs are growing, and that sales of TRPGs are shrinking. And yet Privateer Press sells out every print run. And PDF sales continue to rocket upwards.

We're seeing a "hobbyization" of most creative industries these days -- music and publishing and all, where the barriers to entry keep falling, and that means that the profitability of the industry declines. It doesn't mean that less good material is getting created, nor does it mean that less people are consuming that material. It just means less people are getting rich on it.

Is that sustainable? Does it spell doom and irrelevance for TRPGs? I guess we'll find out. But my thirteen-year-old nephews can hardly wait for the next game we play together. And the recent suggestion that the infamous flight attendants get together for another game was met with nothing less than squeals of delight.

 

[DaveMage]

It wouldn't surprise me if, down the road, Hasbro terminates the production of new D&D products and just continues to reprint "evergreen" products such as the core books, all the while simply licensing the D&D name.

 

[Odhanan]

Here's my comment on LJ:

What about the advantages TRPGs propose as opposed to MMORPGs?

The later require you to own a computer. And a good computer, at this moment, with a good video card etc. You also need a DSL internet connexion. You also need to know what you're doing with a computer (like knowing you have to slide the mouse on your table to make it work. Don't laugh, I actually know people who believe a mouse works by moving it in 3D).

What do RPGs need to be practiced? Core rules, dice, paper, pencils. Period. Then you have fun. That's the same reason why board games work really well. What do board games have that TRPGs don't? You don't need much preparation time, you don't need a huge culture, you don't need to read a thousand pages to play board games. Maybe TRPGs could survive this way.

Personally, I'm a grognard, that's very clear. To me, a computer interface, no matter how stunning, fluid, whatever, will never replace my own imagination. I don't want to have guys imposing on me what an "elf" is supposed to look like. No thank you. So I'll stick to my TRPGs.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

I find crediting 3E with WoW's success to be a rather strange notion, considering that Blizzard had, prior to WoW, been in the position of creating the fastest selling games of all time, and being their only competition in that category. Millions of people around the world play Blizzard games. There are enough copies of StarCraft in South Korea for one person in nine to own a copy there. WoW capitalized on a 10 year old franchise (that wears its ties to 1E and 2E on its sleeve), but the sales of WoW were generated on Blizzard's own name for creating highly polished mass market games, particularly in genres that had remained a small niche previously.

Having said that, take a trip to Blizzard's offices in Irvine, CA (I'm sure Ryan would be welcome), and you'll see D&D books of every generation in pretty much every office. There's definitely a lot of D&D love there -- and ongoing D&D games during lunch and after hours -- but that's a far cry from saying the market for WoW was created by 3E.