Alzrius
The EN World kitten
However, I think that Paizo would have gone with Pathfinder or some OGL-version of the game regardless of a new OGL for 4E. When they announced Pathfinder, they said that they had been working on this since 2007, way before 4E was announced.
I don't think this is quite correct. While it's possible that I'm misremembering, I recall it differently.
I remember that shortly after we were told that the magazines would be ending (in early-mid 2007) Paizo let people know that they were starting a new monthly book of 3.5 material called Pathfinder, and that was all.
Later on (I think a few months after Gen Con that same year, which was when 4E was announced) Paizo announced that they would be releasing their own RPG, also called Pathfinder. We were told that Jason Bulmahn had basically been writing his own set of house rules for 3.5, and that these were the basis for the new game.
The open playtest then began in March of 2008, and lasted for about eighteen months before the final game came out.
In other words, at the time 4E was announced, Paizo hadn't made up their mind to publish their own game yet. It was the lack of announcement for what opportunities would be made available for third-parties regarding 4E that basically left them little choice but to go their own way (since they need to work several months in advance).
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