Shane Hensley comments on the RPG industry

[Dinkeldog]

Only speaking for myself, I just agreed with Shane's glut comment based upon the observation of the shelf stock of several stores, the sheer number of d20 products far exceeds that of any other system in my area. Which is not really as baseless as you claim, it is pretty simple marketing strategy based upon physical space devoted to role playing games, and is used quite successfully by a certain company that makes several miniatures games and is based in England. Your rhetorical question can be easily neutralized by sheer market observation. As far as a realistic financial spectrum in the rpg field, as any budding accountant will tell you, '1+1= anything you want it to'. Therefore my comments on observation over numbers.
*snip*

Speaking only for myself, the number of White Wolf products still holds its own. Of course, to consider this, I lump everything from Vampire to Exalted together, since they're essentially variations/new-editions of the same original system in my eyes.

 

[hellbender]

Speaking only for myself, the number of White Wolf products still holds its own. Of course, to consider this, I lump everything from Vampire to Exalted together, since they're essentially variations/new-editions of the same original system in my eyes.

I agree there is White Wolf 'space', as it were, on shelves, however, at least where I am, the area on shelves devoted to White Wolf is nowhere near d20 space, and there are not that many repeats (other than WotC products) nor are all the d20 companies represented. Which is why I thought that a sampling survey could actually help this debate out, one way or another, or at least illuminate people as to what shelfspace holds in various points on the map.

hellbender

 

[RyanD]

1) What are the Gross Maragins for retailers

Almost universally in the hobby gaming industry the US retailers get between 40 and 45% off of SRP. Because most retailers can qualify to order directly from WotC and GW if they want to, most "real" game stores get up to another 5% off when they buy direct from the publishers or engage in special pre-release ordering programs and early payments. Call the "average" discount of everything in the game inventory about 47% off SRP.

On the same thread what is the general Gross Maragin for books in general

On average books have the same margins as games for hobby game retailers.

Bookstores order books at a wide variety of discount based on the kind of book and the size of the order. Fantasy and Science Fiction hardcovers and softcovers usually sell into book stores at between 40% and 45% off SRP.

2) Do the bulk of RPG sales come from small independents or from the major book chains,(Barnes and Nobles/ Borders).

Half of all of WotC's RPG sales come from bookstores who order product through WotC's book trade distributor, Holtzbrink. Of those sales, 80-90% go to the biggest 10 book chains (including Amazon). Independent book stores don't sell a lot of RPG products, or if they do, they often order from a hobby game distributor to get additional points of margin.

3) If the bulk of sales comes from the large book chains:
3a) How much autonomy do the stores have in ordering?

I've been told conflicting things, and so I believe the real answer is "it depends". Some chains, like Waldenbooks, give local store managers a lot of lattiude about the products they stock. The "big box" retailers (Barnes & Nobel and Borders) usually try to stock such a wide selection that it wouldn't make sense for a local manager to be too involved in inventory decisions. And I beleive that if a publisher worked hard, they could get a corprorate mandate to control inventory on certain products.

Do the stores place their orders directly with the producing companies?

Some do, some don't; some order direct from some publishers, and use a wholesaler for others. WotC exclusively uses Holtzbrink for book trade sales, but other publishers often sell direct to the chain bookstores.

Do these large companies place their orders in bulk and then ship requested quantities out to individual stores,(ie central warehousing and automated Purchase Order creation )?

Yes; that is how WotC's book trade business works. Everything goes to a warehouse in New York, where it is consolidated with shipments going to the distribution centers of the chain stores, or in some cases directly to individual stores. The logistics of that process are managed by Holtzbrink and it is opaque to WotC who gets what, when.

3B) How strict is inventory/sales ratio and OBO calculations?

My opinion is that now that the new sales-tracking software is going into the chain stores that they will be astonished at how much money they make from WotC RPGs compared to how little inventory risk they take. Turns on D&D in the chain bookstores are ferocious.

The top-down management of the orders in the system is really a function of persistence and isn't very automated. When a buyer or a salesperson really stays on top of the issue, inventory ratios can be kept quite high. When nobody's minding the store, they tend to get very spotty.

4) Chris refrenced how novelty plays a large factor in the 'saleability" of a product, in a hobby industry like RPG do stores factor more for novelty than sales trend. Are sales trend models for RPGs a steep spike,(initial large sales boost followed by quick decline)?

The answer to this question depends completely on whether your'e asking about an established top-selling game (D&D), an upstart new RPG, a supplement, an adventure, or some other subcategory.

D&D earns huge sales every year from the "top of the order" products - the PHB, DMG, MM, etc. Other games show a spike when a new core book comes out, but then show successive, smaller spikes as follow on content is reduced.

At the end of the day, most retailers make about half their RPG revenue from selling 50-100 products which have become "Evergreen" which means they sell at high, predictable volumes over a number of years. Exceptions of course for the years that D&D has a new release, and to some extent, when Vampire has a new release.

Ryan

 

[jasamcarl]

My argument is entirely rational. I'm saying that people who are passionate about their work tend to do better work than those who aren't. It's not that radical of a statement.

A designer who doesn't like d20 but is desinging for it because of the money is likely to do sloppy work or to not take the time to really learn the system. I'd rather see work by designers who give a damn.

And yes, I am generalizing.



You're right, useability counts. That's why products that are badly designed, poorly written, amuteurly ilustrated, and created without a good grasp of the rules are crap, whether they bear the d20 logo or not. I'm not talking about sentiment, I'm talking about concrete flaws.

The emphasis you place on those flaws is overtly sentimental. What I and the market consider a flaw is ego drive designers who place more emphasis on their artistic pretentions than providing the compatibility with the wide d20 user network. If they don't care about sales, fine; but to say their resentment is in anyway rational and implying that consumers, aren't, is quite frankly pathetic.

 

[jasamcarl]

Only speaking for myself, I just agreed with Shane's glut comment based upon the observation of the shelf stock of several stores, the sheer number of d20 products far exceeds that of any other system in my area. Which is not really as baseless as you claim, it is pretty simple marketing strategy based upon physical space devoted to role playing games, and is used quite successfully by a certain company that makes several miniatures games and is based in England. Your rhetorical question can be easily neutralized by sheer market observation. As far as a realistic financial spectrum in the rpg field, as any budding accountant will tell you, '1+1= anything you want it to'. Therefore my comments on observation over numbers.

However, I think you brought up an interesting scenario, one of which I would be interested in taking part in with a totally unbiased attitude; the sampling of several shops that carry role playing games. Back in college I used to do these types of surveys in the field of tobacco products, and if there were other interested people willing to conduct a survey in their respective areas, without bias or altering numbers, for the sake of comparing the sheer number of d20 products in comparison to non-d20 products. However, I would not participate if it would be used in any way to bash anyone or any company, and I would hope that nobody else would participate for any agenda other than producing facts. The survey would not reflect sales, but would reflect a sampling of shelfstock offerings and would have to be done on average of twice a week, for around 3 months to gather varied information reflecting trends and inventory.

hellbender

Glut implies that it is not sustainable; by your own admission, its a reasonable buisiness descision. Supply chains simply are not capable of placing every book in the hands of every person who wants one at original retail price. That does not indicate a net loss in either nominal or oppurtunity terms. While I think such a survey would shine some light one this situation, an immediate indicator of how viable the current situation is simply to look at the rational choice of producers and retail; are the former seeing profit comparable to non-d20 producers and are retailers still willing to order d20 products. The answers seem to be yes.. but what do i know?

 

[Dinkeldog]

Three deep breaths before the next round of posts, please?

Thanks. It's getting a bit warm (and frankly, humid, although I'm not sure exactly why) in here.

 

[MulhorandSage]

My argument is entirely rational. I'm saying that people who are passionate about their work tend to do better work than those who aren't. It's not that radical of a statement.

A designer who doesn't like d20 but is desinging for it because of the money is likely to do sloppy work or to not take the time to really learn the system. I'd rather see work by designers who give a damn.

I can't see how anyone can argue against this. Even I hadn't seem this principle in action numerous times while I was working in the computer game industry, a designer who is motivated by purely mercenary reasons is less likely to spend the time playtesting the product than one who actually has a regular campaign and designs *and* plays with passion. And playtested products are, as a rule, more usable than unplaytested ones by an order of magnitude.

Svott Bennie

 

[rounser]

The emphasis you place on those flaws is overtly sentimental.

By refuting in this way, it appears that you're essentially claiming that the market isn't discerning enough to notice a difference in quality of work between those who are passionate and inspired in their attitude towards the game they are designing for versus those who are mercenary and resentful in their attitude towards it, and designing for it anyway.

I don't know whether it matters or not, but I suspect it does. Then again, Frank Herbert claims that he can't tell the difference in the quality of his writing during the times his muse was flowing and the times he was uninspired and found writing an utter chore. Maybe you're right, and with a professional designer, you couldn't tell the difference.

Was the FRCS book created by people who loved the setting? I assumed that the incredible quality of the work meant that it must have been created lovingly, but your assertion would bring that assumption into question.

 

[Nellisir]

I'm not yet a publisher, just a 15+ year consumer of D&D. I frequent 3 "local" gaming stores; the closest more or less specializes in Warhammer, and orders other products based on certain customers preorders. The second orders d20 products haphazardly -- they have the BIGGEST collection of old '80s stuff I've ever seen, and the d20 products simply get lobbed into the shelves, apparently from across the room. I follow reviews, and EN World, and keep track of what's new, and I can't find half of what they have. The third, and most distant, updates their website ever week with new orders. They place new books cover out on dedicated shelves, and order a number of non-d20 products (though not, interestingly, Warhammer). They have a D&D/d20 set of shelves for products over a week old, and a set of non-D&D/d20 shelves (mostly WW and GURPS, honestly). Products that don't sell in 2-3 months go into the 1/2 price bin -- those that don't sell there get marked down further.

The first two stores have their cities pretty much to themselves; the 3rd has at least 2 competing local stores. Make of it what you will; I wish store #3 was alot closer.

I think there's a learning curve with d20, both for consumers and publishers. The number of alternate settings and rules is very much on the rise (air-based rules & settings anyone?), and I believe as the boundaries continue to push outwards, more and more consumers will be comfortable picking up non-sword&sorcery fantasy material. Not having to relearn game systems is a big plus -- most of my 3e gaming group play 2 nights, one in 3e and the 2nd in a sort of exploratory round-robin style, switching campaigns as the mood takes them. In the past few months they've played Wheel of Time, Deadlands, Star Wars, and Rokugan, and are about to begin a high-level (16-20) 3e mini-campaign featuring (the) tarrasque.

I know most of them are feeling much more confident with the 3e rules now than they were a year ago -- we've begun "mastering" the game system, and are beginning to look at boundaries to push with our new knowledge.

idle thoughts
nell

 

[apieros]

Ryan Dancey wrote:

I'm often asked how to make a successful d20 product. My answer is "add as much value to the player's experience as possible". There are a lot of publishers out there who think that consumers still evaluate their products based on how cool their worlds are, or how interesting their art is, or how "fringe" their subject matter is. None of that is true (or has ever been true). Customers value products based on how likely they are to use those products in a game, and when used in a game, how much entertainment value they add to the pre-existing material the customer already has. The difference in success between the publishers who follow a customer-centric focus and those who follow an alternate path is increasingly obvious in terms of unit volumes and topline revenue.

Yes, dear god, yes. I don't want to trash anyone's hard work, but this is why I hated Dragonlords of Melnibone- nothing I could use in my game. I have my own homebrew world and d20 products which offer me enhancements to that world, I buy. Those that don't, I don't.