D&D 4E Showing the Math: Proving that 4e’s Skill Challenge system is broken (math heavy)

[pemerton]

I'm comfortable with best case analysis. Based on the context of his posts, I certainly couldn't have anticipated that proving that the Skill Challenges are even more horribly skewed against the PCs was his intent, or even necessary.

You're right that I wasn't trying to show Skill Challenges are badly skewed against the PCs, just trying to make the more narrow point that initiative order can matter to the chance of success if the PC's themselves have different chances of succeeding on the relevant skill checks.

If I know i'm a terrible speaker, and i'm in a diplomacy-based skill challenge, and came up first, I'd either hold my action, come up with something i could do (to give a + bonus), or expect to blow the whole thing.

For a more specific example: If you're trying to bluff your way past some guards, and the truthful paladin comes up first, and says "No we're really just here to murder your lord".. I'd expect that to become a combat situation very quickly.

Another alternative is for the weaker PC to delay - wait for a PC with a good chance of success at a relevant skill to use that skill to change the situation in some fashion, such that the weaker PC can then deploy a different skill in which s/he is better, or perhaps get a bonus on her weak skill.

 

[WyzardWhately]

BUMP ftw.

Did we ever get word about this from customer service?

I tried running a skill challenge last night, and even without the +5, the failure hit hard.

 

[Blastin]

Wow...I just waded through this thread and....head 'splodes.....

 

[Alzrius]

I thought WOTC hired mathematicians for this very reason. Where did I read that? Was I dreaming it? It's odd that this problem happened.

I'm pretty sure there have been people with backgrounds in mathematics working at WotC (Richard Garfield being a famous example), I don't know that they ever hired anyone specializing in that field specifically to work on skill challenges.

EDIT: Whoops, that's what I get for not checking the date on the post I quoted!