Size of RPG Market

[Krug]

I posted this on the main forum but think this could be interesting to D20 publishers too...

http://www.icv2.com/articles/news/2489.html

CCGs is the largest single category in the games business, and despite the decline of Pokemon, the market for CCGs is still robust, at around $750 million at retail in 2002, thanks largely to the rise of Yu-Gi-Oh! and the continued strength of the classic Magic brand from Wizards of the Coast. The rapid development of the Collectible Miniatures Game category created by WizKids has also helped to fuel the market for miniature games, which was probably around $170 million at retail in 2002. The subset of board games carried by pop culture retailers is difficult to quantify, although that market definitely grew substantially in 2002. One of the most surprising findings for us was the relatively small size of the roleplaying game market, at only around $35 million retail.

 

[Flyspeck23]

RPG market smaller than CCG and CMG doesn´t surprise me at all. For three reasons:
1: With RPGs, once you've got the "core books" you're ready to go. Not so with the other two.*
2. Only one person out of a group of five or six people really needs those books: the GM.**
3. You can play CCGs almost everywhere (CMG falls somewhat short here, but only slightly). You can't (better: you shouldn't) play a RPG in a bar.

Conclusion: from a marketing perspective, I'd put out a CCG or CMG. From the fun-and-fairness perspective, I'd publish a RPG.
IMHO CCG and CMG are ripp-offs (I like some of them, mind you, but I can't stop feeling cheated somehow).


* Granted, you could play with just a starter of either CCG and CMG, but the games get boring rather quick (or frustrating, if one of your opponents keeps buying stuff and you don't). And everybody wants more options for their characters, a detailed campaign world and whatnot - all these things can be supplied by a creative GM, and don't have to originate in some RPG book.
** Granted, it's always nice if the Non-GMs have got their own Player's Handbook or class books. But most casual gamers won't buy any (at least that's my experience).

 

[Mongoose_Matt]

Figures for the RPG market pop up now and again and are often in the $35-50 million range. The trouble is, I don't buy it - not completely. If these figures are accurate, then Mongoose has a sizeable share of the entire RPG market. And I just don't think that is quite true yet. . .

 

[Krug]

Figures for the RPG market pop up now and again and are often in the $35-50 million range. The trouble is, I don't buy it - not completely. If these figures are accurate, then Mongoose has a sizeable share of the entire RPG market. And I just don't think that is quite true yet. . .

Yes, I found it a little hard to believe too. I wonder how ICV2 went about getting their figures...

 

[Mongoose_Matt]

There are several reports like this available in the industry and, to my mind, none can be considered wholly accurate - the most famous of these is the monthly Comics and Games Retailer magazine. They can be 'interesting' to gauge the performance of various companies, though only when taken over a period of time (one month last year, we dropped off the chart altogether, and I know we increased sales in that month - so unless the rest of the industry surged ahead without telling us. . .). Also, they tend to be very limited in scope, ignoring, for example, sales to the book trade or sales outside of the US. Both of which can be substantial

As for defining the entire industry - well, I would tend to rgeard them as a pleasent fiction

 

[rpghost]

Figures for the RPG market pop up now and again and are often in the $35-50 million range. The trouble is, I don't buy it - not completely. If these figures are accurate, then Mongoose has a sizeable share of the entire RPG market. And I just don't think that is quite true yet. . .

I wouldn't discount that number so quickly. Most successful gaming stores push 100-300k a year though their stores. I know several online stores that do that as well. It seems like a reasonable amount if you count the whole product line of game stores.

I also don't think that Mongoose has as large of a market share as you seem to think (no offense)...

James

 

[Steve Conan Trustrum]

I also don't think that Mongoose has as large of a market share as you seem to think (no offense)...

James

You're missing Matt's point. He was saying that IF those numbers were accurate, Mongoose would have a large market share, and he doesn't believe that is so ... yet. So he was agreeing with your above statement.