ICv2 Reports Disappointing Year For Hobby Games Channel: TTRPGs Down, D&D Declines 30%

According to ICv2, 2023 was a tough year for hobby game sales. The US and Canada market increased by just 1%, which was less than the rate of inflation, growing from $2.86 billion in 2022 to $2.89 billion in 2023.

The hobby game sales channel is defined as specialist game and card stores--it doesn't include Amazon, direct sales, etc. It does include Kickstarter.

Top Hobby Channel TTRPGs (2023)

1. Dungeons & Dragons (WotC)
2. Pathfinder (Paizo)
3. Cyberpunk Red (R. Talsorian)
4. World of Darkness (Renegade Game Studios)
5. Starfinder (Paizo)
6. Warhammer 40K (Cubicle 7)
7. Marvel Multiverse Roleplaying (Marvel)
8. Kobold 5E Books (Kobold Press)
9. Call of Cthulhu (Chaosium)
10. Pirate Borg (Free League)

The only two categories to grow in 2023 were collectibles and miniatures. All other categories--board games, card games, and roleplaying games--were down. ICv2 reports a 30% hobby store sales decline for Dungeons & Dragons specifically, citing the impending new edition and lackluster movie performance, and the tail end of a pandemic-fuelled high; they also report that while the OGL crisis of last year impacted some lifestyle gamers, newer players as a whole were oblivious to the situation. The other important element ICv2 mentioned was D&D's increasing move to digital, which impacted retail sales.

Older D&D players, says ICv2, are also migrating to other games, with Pathfinder as one of the major beneficiaries.

The last 6 years has seen much larger growth rates--partly fuelled by the pandemic--ranging from 10% to 30%. 2022 saw a 7% growth over 2021. Despite the small increase, 2023 represents the 15th year of growth for the overall market. ICv2 does predict a market decline in 2024, though.

ICv2 conducts periodical surveys and speaks to publishers, distributors, and retailers, along with publicly available company information and Kickstarter data.

 

[Parmandur]

Oh it is a lot more than that, in some cases it's exactly the same network.

I am sure you would be more familiar than I am, that is just my understanding from the outside. It does seem more complicated than "MONOPOLY".

 

[teitan]

I am sure you would be more familiar than I am, that is just my understanding from the outside. It does seem more complicated than "MONOPOLY".

OH yes, Amazon isn't a monopoly when you actually examine what is sold and how many third party retailers are actually selling. Amazon would essentially fall under "resource" as those sellers are considered independent businesses. They make up the majority of what is sold on Amazon.

 

[Kichwas]

The hobby game sales channel is defined as specialist game and card stores--it doesn't include Amazon, direct sales, etc. It does include Kickstarter.

My YouTube subs only just caught up to this thread existing so I'm a little late to the thread on this one.

This has probably been noted already but this almost seems inline with the intentions for both WotC and Paizo. WotC seems to want people to move over to digitial purchases. Paizo really heavily encourages buying direct from them with a subscription (subs get a free PDF copy, and a 15% discount - almost makes it as cheap as Amazon, but Amazon doesn't include the PDF. Local stores are left out in the cold save for the 'special covers' for the remaster which is not a normal promotion).

I'd be curious to know much things have dipped if we added Amazon, D&D Beyond, and Paizo subscription data "back in".

Are we seeing an actual dip, or a move away from local stores.

Not just in hobby games, but across the board I'm seeing a dip in local retail. Empty malls and storefronts. Even restaurants are getting replaced by shared commercial kitchens for shops that only sell through food delivery apps.

Older D&D players, says ICv2, are also migrating to other games, with Pathfinder as one of the major beneficiaries.

While I am in the Pathfinder camp, I was never in the 5E camp. In fact I dipped out of D&D in the early 00s (when last I was a regular poster here). BUT most groups I have encountered online over the last year or so has been 5E people moving systems. Played in several one-shots of people trying it out.

Whether they switched or not, 2023 was a year a lot of people tried other choices. Then again 1% of D&D players trying PF2E would be like PF2E seeing a doubling in it's player base... so while it feels like a lot of people from my side of the table, from their side it could be so few as to be unnoticeable.

 

[Reynard]

I wonder is there is any realistic way to determine how D&D sales are actually doing, across forms and outlets. Like, it matters if dead tree versions dip but digital versions bump, or if VTT sales increase while Beyond sales dip, etc.

 

[moose2271]

The OGL stupidity and complete incompetence by people who have poor performance records from previous employers affected WOTC more than most realize. Many more companies have there own system now and those sales really won't show until later this year. WOTC saw this coming and dump their excess inventory to keep things appear not as bad. Amazon sales would show a huge loss in profitability and give a far grimmer picture, though more accurate. There are a lot of ways WITC could have done things better, but you have to be willing to adopt a long term growth and profitability strategy in the face of stock holder, instant profit demands.

 

[TheSword]

MSRP is created by setting a retail sales cost a certain percentage above wholesale cost whereby the merchant can make a sustainable profit selling that item. Amazon, however, is an effective monopoly and can (mostly) ignore it. Being a monopoly doesn't mean that no one else is offering what you are, but it does mean they can't compete with you. In the US this happened with Pacific Bell in the 70's - no one could compete with them and so they were broken up. No one can compete with Amazon. They are so big, and deal with so much volume, and have so much money, that they can sell at a loss across entire sectors for no other reason than you might buy there more as a result. No one else can do that. They are largely immune to the traditional market forces that 99.99% of the rest of the world have to obey. Every so often, you'll hear complaints that Amazon needs to be broken up, but anti-regulatory forces are much stronger now than they were in the 70's and so it goes nowhere.

Their speed of delivery, communication, information, refund system, range of stock, and usually price (not always) is excellent. But you could set up a shop tomorrow selling the kinds of products that Amazon sell and do very well. The way I know that is because there are companies that are thriving by doing exactly that. Businesses are successfully competing with Amazon all the time.

‘effective’ doesn’t really mean anything in this debate. Something either is a monopoly in which case we can discuss the impact or it isn’t, in which case what the point.

 

[Zardnaar]

Oh well was going to happen eventually.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

I wonder is there is any realistic way to determine how D&D sales are actually doing, across forms and outlets. Like, it matters if dead tree versions dip but digital versions bump, or if VTT sales increase while Beyond sales dip, etc.

That's a great question. And I think WotC would actually be perfectly happy if dead tree dropped but Beyond went up for example. We should always keep in mind that the guy literally in charge of all things D&D at WotC is a man whose career highlight is converting huge numbers of people from one-off purchases to long-term digital subscriptions for Microsoft. And WotC aren't likely to discuss Beyond sales unless there's a compelling reason for them to do so (and I don't think ICv2 figures remotely count as that).

 

[SteveC]

I wonder is there is any realistic way to determine how D&D sales are actually doing, across forms and outlets. Like, it matters if dead tree versions dip but digital versions bump, or if VTT sales increase while Beyond sales dip, etc.

I think that would be really tough for outsiders to do. Since Covid I've been playing online exclusively and once I adopted Foundry, I have picked up a ton of stuff. I'm running PF2 and have many resources for adventures, tokens, heck I even picked up the card deck.

What I'm not doing is buying many physical products. I have too many books that I don't use already. I do support my favorite small publishers but by and large, it's all electronic. I know that many of my gaming crew are doing the same thing. I don't know of any easy way to get statistics on sales for these products. I think it would be surprising how much gets sold that way.

 

[Wolfpack48]

What I'm not doing is buying many physical products. I have too many books that I don't use already. I do support my favorite small publishers but by and large, it's all electronic. I know that many of my gaming crew are doing the same thing. I don't know of any easy way to get statistics on sales for these products. I think it would be surprising how much gets sold that way.

I am betting that the sales numbers reported are not including those from Drive Thru or other sources. Any way to verify this with ICv2?