So...How are Sales of 4E Product?

[Imaro]

And I reiterate...

I won't go so far as to call the representatives of WotC "liars", but alot of their statements ( close to, during and after the announcement of 4e)...have made me feel that the things they say should be examined and taken literally since the implied meaning, which most would probably take from their statements, may be later argued as "not exactly what they said"...also, one should not expect them to correct said statements if an implied meaning is bandied about.

 

[Delta]

I never claimed that it sold more than 1E, nor did I claim that it looked like it did. The first time I ever saw anything like that claim was from 'Ryan'. And even he stated that it was really only a guess.

Sure, that response wasn't directed at you. It was directed at folks such as in posts #31, 44, 58, etc., in this thread, claiming that it's been established that 4E is outselling 1E (under some metric).

Scott, thanks for the input here, it's appreciated. Noted that "for the record I don't know how 4e has done compared to 1e". Let me ask one follow-up question to totally clarify: To your knowledge, has any WOTC staffer claimed that 4E has outsold 1E (i.e., "all prior editions")? Or would it be incorrect for anyone to have made such a statement?

 

[Delta]

Not exactly. It would have been 2005, and what I was saying was that, contrary to the common perception (among gamers and nongamers) that D&D has for 20 years been a mere shadow of its early-80s fad highs, D&D was in fact about as big as it had ever been.

Comparisons are hard to make, because the TSR-era data is so sketchy, but virtually every metric we had good data on indicated that D&D had as many players then (2005) as it had ever had. And the numbers are probably up since then!

The broader point isn't a direct comparison of PHB sales. It's that we gamers shouldn't continue to think we live in the shadow of some glory days when D&D was really popular. These days are even bigger!

Charles, I just noticed this response, thanks for that. As I said, I was keenly interested in your clarification there to the "So-and-so said 1E PHB's had been outsold" claim.

 

[Scott_Rouse]

To your knowledge, has any WOTC staffer claimed that 4E has outsold 1E (i.e., "all prior editions")? Or would it be incorrect for anyone to have made such a statement?

There are still a few people who work at WOTC who were at TSR back in the day (e.g. Kim Mohan) but I kinda doubt they would know the 1e sales that well so I doubt a staffer would have made that claim.

 

[Jack99]

So I can see from the video that darjr posted that that is not what he said. He did say that 4E was getting more preorders than 3E did for the last couple years.

Look, I'm sure that 4E is selling a whole lot of books. That's not in doubt, nor am I interested in arguing that.

But once again someone has danced very carefully around the "record sales" issue, and you took from it what you wanted to hear. We know that both Scott Rouse and Charles Ryan are involved in this thread, they've had a golden opportunity to say for the record, "yes/no/don't know if 4E has outsold 1E to this point in time". And they have, as always, scrupulously avoided that.

So to this time I see the number of official claims that "4E has outsold all prior editions": zero. My personal theory is that 4E has sold a lot of books, less than 1E, and I don't see any evidence to the contrary.

I don't usually discuss business on these forums, but I will answer enough to say, "4E is doing well for us." 4E is definitely smaller than the launch of 3.0 so many years ago, and people have a valid point in saying it's a smaller "edition launch" overall. But compared to the trends of the last couple years, 4E has definitely caused a significant increase in sales.

In answer to the specific callout that you quoted, "I haven't heard of any 4e third-party products selling in significant numbers", there was a period in the early days of 3.0 where ANYTHING with the d20 logo could sell great numbers. That effect has not been repeated. And many distributors and retailers who were burned by that period are being even more strict with the (limited) pool of GSL goods available. There may be some third party publishers who hoped that the GSL would be their trampoline into the sales stratosphere... but this time around it appears to require quality product, good partnerships, effective marketing, and all the other nuts-and-bolts business basics, GSL or no GSL.

From GG Link

 

[Delta]

There are still a few people who work at WOTC who were at TSR back in the day (e.g. Kim Mohan) but I kinda doubt they would know the 1e sales that well so I doubt a staffer would have made that claim.

Thank you, Scott, much appreciated.

 

[Delta]

From GG Link

Again, I have no doubt that 4E is selling a bunch of books, that's not my beef. More sales than the "last couple years" of 3.5 material, easy to believe.

But re: "breaking all sorts of records" (per post #31), you just quoted Joseph Goodman saying the following, which I count as contradicting that claim:

4E is definitely smaller than the launch of 3.0 so many years ago

 

[ProfessorCirno]

First, all I will say regarding promises made before 4e fully came out, is that ze game did not remain ze same

Ignoring the issues of sales and all that nonesense, instead I'll touch on this idea of "sales = quality." Good lord, this is a frightening idea - scratch that, terrifying idea - in a world where Twilight sells well and the Wayans Brothers are still able to make movies.

 

[Jack99]

Again, I have no doubt that 4E is selling a bunch of books, that's not my beef. More sales than the "last couple years" of 3.5 material, easy to believe.

But re: "breaking all sorts of records" (per post #31), you just quoted Joseph Goodman saying the following, which I count as contradicting that claim:

It was not to prove a point. It was merely in the interest of the debate, as someone brought up GG, and I remembered this quote.

 

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

Again, I have no doubt that 4E is selling a bunch of books, that's not my beef. More sales than the "last couple years" of 3.5 material, easy to believe.

But re: "breaking all sorts of records" (per post #31), you just quoted Joseph Goodman saying the following, which I count as contradicting that claim:

Maybe he's misinformed? It's just his gut feeling, I don't know what he did around 3E and what he does now. I don't like to assume that anyone is lying, so I would say WotC is pretty sure about their print runs for 3E, 3.5 and 4E, and I wouldn't be surprised if individual distributors aren't so much aware of it.

Though I am not sure - was he talking about the 4E core rulebooks or was he talking about the Goodman Games products launched? (I am not familiar enough with Goodman Games to know what they did during the 3E launch and what they are doing now...)

First, all I will say regarding promises made before 4e fully came out, is that ze game did not remain ze same

It did remain the same for some values of sameyness. OD&D, AD&D and D&D 3E all were the same and they were all different, too. The game still always remains the same with its dungeon exploring focus and its essential classes and races... (as opposed to Core classes and races, which did change over time)

Ignoring the issues of sales and all that nonesense, instead I'll touch on this idea of "sales = quality." Good lord, this is a frightening idea - scratch that, terrifying idea - in a world where Twilight sells well and the Wayans Brothers are still able to make movies.

You know, the trick is - there are different types of qualities. To go in the generic food analogy thing: Fast Food for example has the quality of being fast and easy to get. It might not be as healthy or as refined as other options, but if you want your food fast, you go to Burger King or McDonalds.
A fish restaurant might make the best fish in the world, but if you want a noodle salad, it's not getting a sale from you.

So yes, "sales = quality", for the type of quality people want. (Notice: Type does not mean "degree" or "level")

D&D always had the quality and the qualities a lot of people wanted. If it ceases to do so, the value of the D&D brand will diminish, and it won't sell as good as it used to. If AD&D, D&D 3E or D&D 4E would have been bad games, D&D would no longer bring in the same amount of customers and cease being a guarantee for good sales.