For movies (and video games, but I haven't played those in a while unless you count pinball), a "good" movie needs a definition.
1) The movie, director, and/or stars will be up for best picture/director/actor/actress/supporting....? About the same odds that next year's splat book will be [MENTION=88539]LowKey[/MENTION]'s guide to gnome paladins.
2) #1 movie for one week? 50:50
3) #1 movie for more than one week (assuming it is #1 for 1 week)? 25:75 unless it comes out in February-March, then 75:25
4) Thousands of people flock to play D&D? No idea.
5) Critics hate it, but it becomes a "cult classic"? 50:50 (remember some movies are so bad that people love them).
6) It will get a Razzie nomination? 90:10
7) It makes Transformers movie money? 50:50
8) People will badmouth it if it makes Transformers movie money? 100%