Quickleaf
Legend
I appreciate you sharing your approach. I'm going to give it a try, and see what shakes out...Basically, “How do save or suck/die spells affect CR?”
It does look pretty darn hard. There isn’t an obvious straightforward method of figuring it out, though there probably should be.
Defensive CR 9
eff HP = 117 * 1.5 (for target CR 5-10) = 175
eff AC = 16 + 2 saves + 2 magic resist = 20
or
Defensive CR 8
eff HP = 117 * 1.25 (for target CR 11-16) = 146
eff AC = 16 + 2 saves + 2 magic resist = 20
Ok, hypothetical 3 round combat means prioritizing 8th, 7th, and 6th level spell slots. Her spells are from bard & cleric lists, so going to stick to those. Harm (6th) (14d6 or 49), Firestorm (7th) (7d10 or 38 vs. two targets = 76), and since there's no damaging bard or cleric spell at 8th, I'll just go with another Firestorm I guess (76).My next step would be to swap out her prepared spells with blasting spells and see what that does to her CR just to get a data point.
(49 + 76 + 76) / 3 = 67 DPR
Spell save DC is ~18
That gives me a data point Offensive CR = 11
And (9 defensive CR + 11 offensive CR) / 2 = data point CR 10.
I'm going to assume average HP for a 10th level party is something like a d8, maximum at first, high average each level thereafter, with CON 14. So it would = 8 + (9 * 5) + (10 * 2) = 73 hit points.Then, pretend she’s fighting a party of 4 with average level equal to that CR and see how many effective hit points she negates by taking out characters with removal spells like planeshift. I would say something like dominate would only last 2 rounds (but it might also contribute to her damage output during that time). Figure out an offensive CR from there.
She can cast two plane shifts with her 7th level and 8th level spell slots. Maybe I can equate an upcast 5th level hold person or dominate person as being roughly equivalent to a third plane shift? Maybe? I don't know. I'm going to do that just for the sake of completing the exercise.
That dives her a DPR of 73.
Which the magic on the DMG (page 274) tables gives us Offensive CR = 11.
Same as above, (9 + 11) / 2 = Total CR 10.
I'm going to assume average HP for a 9th level party is calculated same as I did above. So it would = 8 + (8 * 5) + (9 * 2) = 66 hit points.Then, I’d run the same numbers against a level 9 party (because that’s her defensive CR so it’s another potential starting point).
Then I‘d take each offensive CR and find a final CR. If the results with both data points are really close, then I would look at it based on feel. If they were only one apart, well, it’s one or the other. If they were two apart, then go for the middle (unless my gut says to round high or low). And it’s possible they could end up being the same number (in which case I have my answer)!
DPR 66. Which gives us Offensive CR = 11
And again, Total CR 10.
However... These "offensive" tactics are also about control, so they're reducing the overall damage/offense output the PCs can bring to bear against the monster. And somehow I'd need to account for that in her Defensive CR calculations, right?