BG3 was an absolute fluke.
Not only that, but it was a fluke the studio decided not to follow up on with a sequel. The reasons for that can be discussed separately, but it's almost irrelevant - it just points to how IP licencing has become increasingly unpopular over the last 20 years, and how much difficulty WotC apparently has with maintaining positive relationships with skilled/experienced development studios.
I think they might say “ this looks like a stinker” so cut bait .
With some studios I might believe that.
With Starbreeze? Nah. If they couldn't tell Payday 3 wasn't hot, they wouldn't have been able to tell here. What's much more likely, given everything we know, is that Starbreeze are in enough financial trouble that they simple don't have the wherewithal to complete the project. Especially it would really need to be solidly AAA quality to sell well in this market.
The absolute titans of the industry, like Microsoft or Square Enix, can bite the bullet and pay for the enormous cost of a maximum-budget game, knowing that as long as it's at least pretty decent they'll make their money back eventually.
Even those companies are often cutting projects off quite far into development. MS cancelled an MMORPG that was at least 80% complete, probably would have released early 2027 at the latest, as well as a bunch of other projects which were looking solid. But MS seem to have lost the plot recently, given not only these cuts into, essentially, their own future, but the demented decision to raise prices on Game Pass massively. Like, the basic PC Game Pass is going up by 40% with absolutely no improvements planned, and no spectacular-seeming games any time in the foreseeable future being added. And they've bumped the top tier up to $30, with absolutely pathetic additions that no-one cares about. And it's not like Game Pass wasn't profitable! It was already massively profitable. I guess they're hoping they lose few enough subscribers that the hike makes up for it, but I suspect they will be disappointed. Game Pass isn't Netflix, but MS thinks it is.
So even those companies like that can bite the bullet, the nature of corporations and cowardice and always looking at the next annual report (and thus annual bonuses for high-end execs) means that games that could have been genre-defining or provided profits for a decade or more to come get zapped.