Statistically Proving Bad Luck (Help Appreciated)

[Heretic Apostate]

Okay, here's what you do. Put all the numbers into excel. Type into one cell "=stdev(a1:a179)" (a1:a179 is the range your rolls are in, adjust this if they are in a different range). <snip>

With these formulas, he'd have to adjust the formulas every time he added a new die roll.

Try this, instead. (Pulling out my Microsoft Excel 2000 Formulas book, ISBN 0-7645-4609-0.)

Insert menu, Name, Define:
....name the range (e.g., DieRolls)
....in the Refers To area, type "=Offset(Sheet1!$A$2,0,0,CountA(Sheet1!$A:$A)-1)"

What this does is it sets up an array starting from cell A2 (assuming a title in cell A1) that is as large as the number of die rolls. Don't skip any cells!!!

Now, do your formulas.

For instance:

=Quartile(Sheet1!DieRolls,1) 25th percentile
=Min(Sheet1!DieRolls) Minimum
=Average(Sheet1!DieRolls) Mean
=Quartile(Sheet1!DieRolls,2) 50th percentile
=Max(Sheet1!DieRolls) Maximum
=Quartile(Sheet1!DieRolls,3) 75th percentile

In chapter 15, they do a cool box plot (using all the above formulas).

I REALLY like this book.

 

[reapersaurus]

The deviation from the mean may be due to the die you are using, and not your phenomenoscopic transprobability curve warping field.

I am REALLY considering adding this whopper of a sentence to my sig.l

 

[Themis]

What rolls Matter?

Your bad luck may also be a relative thing.

What if you make all the relatively unimportant rolls which I would guess make up 90% of your roles. Then when it comes to those crucial save or die rolls you fail every single one.

I play with a guy who is much like that.
Perhaps his stress level is able to effect the die rolls.

Personally when I REALLY want to make a roll I concentrate on it and verbalize the result that I want. Usually I get it and my friends gawk at me. Yup, prayer works for me They all think I am a lucky SOB.

Alternately you could always try this handy dark pagan ritual.
Melt your dice in a sacrifice to your favorite dark god and pray for said god to bless your new dice. LOL.

 

[Wolfspirit]

Re: What rolls Matter?

Your bad luck may also be a relative thing.

What if you make all the relatively unimportant rolls which I would guess make up 90% of your roles. Then when it comes to those crucial save or die rolls you fail every single one.

I play with a guy who is much like that.
Perhaps his stress level is able to effect the die rolls.

Personally when I REALLY want to make a roll I concentrate on it and verbalize the result that I want. Usually I get it and my friends gawk at me. Yup, prayer works for me They all think I am a lucky SOB.

Alternately you could always try this handy dark pagan ritual.
Melt your dice in a sacrifice to your favorite dark god and pray for said god to bless your new dice. LOL.

Yeah, that's kinda what I'm looking at for combat vs non-combat. Sure, there's rolls that you don't REALLY need during combat and save or die spot check outside of it, but that'd be more subjective

 

[Thresher]

Im one of the people out ther that can consistantly suck arse at dice rolling, point-buy systems are my friend otherwise I end up with characters with 10, 10, 8, 12, 14... *gunshot*

I can make a great character, use tactics, think out a situation over days and then hit the table, roll the dice and wow, just look at crap roll(s) that means "you miss/you dunno/it dosnt work this time" and if I had any anticipation of actually suceeding once in awhile I'd actually be distraught. As is I carry something of an inbuilt expectation of failure, dosnt matter what I say or do, if theres a dice roll in there I 'take 1' and flub out.
And... the more dice I roll the worse I will dig myself in, which is why I will not play the WoD system, love the games-will assuredly fail, wont play desktop wargames anymore either. Theres 300+ minatures painted up, looking pretty in a cardboard box and probably worth several thousand dollars, but hey I know for a fact them bastards cant hit anything or kill anything no matter how bad the other guy screws up and leaves himself open.

Over the last 10 or so years you'd think my gaming group would have understood this fact and decided not to rely on me for anything other than being the random 'tard that screws up everything on contact with the enemy.
But no.
No, I'll be the cleric that'll roll 3 ones and a 2 on a cure crit to save someone life, the pilot to put down the crippled frieghter, right on top of the stardestroyer chasing us, or the dumb fighter that manages to 'wiff wiff wiff' his way to hitting nothing while the monster eats the wizard.
For awhile I just claimed it was a "warning shot, my god dosnt like you or it was the ships fault", but that was denial and I can not longer deny the fact Im mostly reduced to vile language to do anything in game.

So, I hate dice, they hate me and I dont make any excuses, dosnt matter who's dice or what its for they will just suck. For some time over the last 6 weeks Ive been watching the D20 rolling, its consistantly between 2-9 and occasionally I'll do something like roll a 19-20 on something really usefull like a general knowledge check while not noticing the bounty hunter with the thermal detonator or 2000 screaming orcs running down the mountainside in the middle of the night when Im on watch.

I really fuggen hate dice games

 

[reapersaurus]

Re: What rolls Matter?

Personally when I REALLY want to make a roll I concentrate on it and verbalize the result that I want. Usually I get it and my friends gawk at me. Yup, prayer works for me They all think I am a lucky SOB.

Since we're talking ridiculous, I'll add my experience:

If I don't know whether I need to roll high or low, than invariably I roll crappy. (for example, when a DM in previous editions would ask me to roll a die - I'd ask him if I need to roll high, or low, and he'd say he wouldn't tell me)

If I know straight-out what I need, I'm successful (I'd estimate) 70% of the time.

 

[Rashak Mani]

Do like my DM does... he thinks that as a player he rolls exceddingly bad and therefore he tries to always play Arcane Spellcasters as a gamer. Mages dont have attack rolls basically.

So if you are a bad luck or bad roller... get Mages. Your fireball damage might suck... but it will hit the enemy. The saves are made by the foes anyway any luck is theirs to botch.

As for Luck... I think some people are unlucky... no need to prove statistically. Its just that when the rolls are simple stuff they roll like everyone else. When its the major combat they start rolling 1's and under 10 all the time. One of our friends rolled 3 fumbles in one major combat... the most dangerous we have faced ever.... naturally some guys are luckier too...

In my case I have only sucessfully made one (1) roll of Save vs Fear in 9 years. Inlcuding a roll of one against a creature where a 1 roll meant instant death from fright. For some wierd reason all my characters fail vs Fear. These included from Archmages to Raging barbarians. No wonder my favorite current character is a Paladin....