I gave this issue some thought not long ago and posted my ideas and results here:
http://www.enworld.org/forum/showthread.php?412279-True-Counterspelling
The True Counterspelling rule is /very specific/ to spell duels, however, because all the opponents are trying to do is disguise the /nature/ of the spell being cast, not that any spell at all is being cast. I think this is an important distinction.
For a totally silent stealth-casting, that seems pretty powerful, so I'd fall back on my simple wager system: The PC makes a check to get what they want, but on a failure they get a consequence just as bad.
This feels like a critical failure result to me, rather than the consequence of a standard failure.
In this case, I'd allow a DC 15 spellcasting ability check to modify the spell so that you can cast it without a verbal component;
If you're trying to throw off a counterspell, I think it makes sense to use Arcana to weird the somatic and verbal components. But if you're trying to avoid an arrow in the gob, completely concealing the fact that you are casting /at all/ is an entirely different and more challenging issue.
When I designed True Counterspelling, I specifically wanted it to be something that a classically trained wizard would be good at, because that made sense. But I'm not sure total casting concealment falls under the same aegis. I picture rooms full of wizards practicing the same somatic gestures over and over, like a tai chi form, and instructors shouting at pupils to "enunciate your vowels" and "chant from the diaphragm." Any ability they have to disguise their spells, yes, comes from their understanding of magic.
Bards, sorcerers, and warlocks obviously don't have this baggage, but even -- or especially -- in their case, I don't feel like Arcana is the right choice for spell stealth. It's not about academia, it's about being sneaky.
Deception is the obvious go-to skill here, but I don't think Charisma is the appropriate stat. It feels more like a Dexterity problem to me, although I realize the inherent shortcomings of the Sleight of Hand skill in this regard. So maybe Dexterity+Deception? It makes sense that being good at this would require a very specific ability set.
And then, it's important to note that an opposing /caster/, if he notices the surreptitious casting, is going to know the spell unless a /further/ Arcana check is made. This is a nuanced thing, but I kind of like it.
but on a failure, not only do you make a sound, but you also lose the spell being cast!
I choose to interpret this as, "and the wizard farts apocalyptically."
That should be sufficient disincentive so that it doesn't step on the sorcerer's toes, but still be a viable option if people want to accept that risk.
I think the Wizard ought to step on the Sorcerer's toes as often as possible. What's the point of playing The Man if you ain't keepin' people down?