Stephen Schubert's Playtest Reports

[Burr]

1 in 3,037, actually (rounded to nearest integer).

That said, if somebody seriously accused me of roll-cheating purely on the basis of rolling six 20s in a night, I'd walk out of that game and not come back. Coincidences like that happen all the time. The odds get a lot shorter once you spread them out over all the players in the group--in all the groups--with the kind of play schedule they undoubtedly have going on at WotC right now.

He wasn't reporting on all groups, though. He was reporting on 1 group that hasn't met for 2 months. Even with 6 players making 20 attack rolls apiece, at that rate it's more like 80 years before you'd see such an event.

Now, if I were actually playing with a person who did that, I wouldn't accuse them of cheating anyway, unless it happened too often and other players were getting pissed. I bring it up here because this is one of the behaviors playtesters should measure.

 

[Raith5]

Maybe its just me, but I'd like to see some of these playtest reports also in oh, say, the playtest report section of Dragon Magazine on the Wizards site. Its been a little over 3 months since any entry was made there, it would be nice to see the reports consolidated there for easier perusal.

Man, you are not alone.

When I want D and D info I always check en world first because the site is much clearer than WOTC.

Thanks to good folk here at en world who keep us in the loop! Thanks Shroomy!

 

[Voss]

Hmm... Going off some excel simulation, it would take an average of over 3200 sets of 20 rolls in order to get more than 5 natural 20s. That is, if you rolled 20 times a day every day for 10 years, you should only expect it to happen once.

Of course, he only actually describes 4 crits. It only takes about 60 or so such sets to get that. It's likely he either typoed or hyperboled at the end. But if it really was 6 natural 20s in 20 rolls, then it seems the action point system will not completely disincentivize roll-cheating.

Nothing will ever disincentivize roll-cheating.

But... on the all the 20s. This is why odds are vaguely useful, but don't really have any real bearing on a die thats actually being rolled.

 

[Cadfan]

Rolled 20, 20, 20, 19 once.

That's a greataxe critical, its confirmation, another greataxe critical, and its confirmation.

I'm the DM. I was rolling in full view of the players.

That series of rolls left behind one seriously dead paladin.

Wish I'd been using a screen. I'd have fudged those results.

 

[Dausuul]

He wasn't reporting on all groups, though. He was reporting on 1 group that hasn't met for 2 months. Even with 6 players making 20 attack rolls apiece, at that rate it's more like 80 years before you'd see such an event.

If this had happened in a different playtest group, we would still have heard about it. It's the sort of thing people are apt to post about. The fact that it happened to occur in this particular session means nothing.

Also, I'm a little skeptical that it was really only 20 rolls each.

 

[DMShoe]

If this had happened in a different playtest group, we would still have heard about it. It's the sort of thing people are apt to post about. The fact that it happened to occur in this particular session means nothing.

Also, I'm a little skeptical that it was really only 20 rolls each.

Well, the PC in question made approximately 20 attack rolls, give or take -- given the 6-8 round length of each combat and around 1 attack roll per round. (the last encounter went a bit longer, but the warlord didn't attack every round once the darkness decended) The PC also rolled initiative, and some various skill checks, so she rolled a d20 maybe 30 times or so. Rolls were in the open, on the table, and the player involved was so excited about each roll that she pointed at the die and yelled out "oh yeah! 20 baby!!" (I'm paraphrasing, but you get the idea). I know she critted at least 5 times, and two of those were back-to-back in the first fight. I'm unsure of the sixth crit, but it plausibly could have happened.

Probability and observed behavior are interesting and intriguing things. Knowing how rare something might be allows you to appreciate it even more when it happens. It is a memory that will stand out for all players involved, much like the time my dwarf dagger thrower once picked up a fallen foe's longbow and rapid-shotted three arrows, hitting a fleeing enemy at maximum range, rolling 3 consecutive 20's on the attack rolls and confirming two of them with nat 20's. It's the sort of story that legends are made of, and the only way to confirm the truth is to ask the others involved. (ask Noonan sometime about how I earned my "I roll twenties" t-shirt)

As far as providing the playtest reports to Dragon -- I've got enough going on that I don't want to commit to a schedule for playtest updates. By blogging them, I can get some details out (which some of you seem to want to read), while not feeling obligated to hit some deadline and add the report to my workload.

 

[Sitara]

Great stuff! I also had no idea ppl hated dragons so much; they are being mercilessley slaughtered in every playtest!

A few things:

1)When the warlord first charged out of the webs, was this out of turn due to a power? And did this somehow allow her to break free of the webs, or was she never entangled in the first place?

2)Did the wizard have nothing to add to the dragon fight save magic missiles?

 

[vagabundo]

Heh, I have a group with a couple of roll-cheaters, one in particular.

I caught him bad a month or two ago. He thought I wasn't looking and I seen him touch the d20 after he'd rolled with the tip of his finger. The gas thing was the original roll (7) was good enough.

He now has to declare his intent to roll and keep all hands off the table. He has also coined the "roll and move" technique for multiple dice cheating, with multiple attacks or something like a fireball, he will gather the dice after a roll to make it easier to add them, in the process of the move it will become a higher number. He is quite skilful and I love catching him: Autofail and an XPs penalty on the encounter....

Not to accuse the player above of cheating. Girls cheat less in my experience.

 

[Mathew_Freeman]

Well, the PC in question made approximately 20 attack rolls, give or take -- given the 6-8 round length of each combat and around 1 attack roll per round. (the last encounter went a bit longer, but the warlord didn't attack every round once the darkness decended) The PC also rolled initiative, and some various skill checks, so she rolled a d20 maybe 30 times or so. Rolls were in the open, on the table, and the player involved was so excited about each roll that she pointed at the die and yelled out "oh yeah! 20 baby!!" (I'm paraphrasing, but you get the idea). I know she critted at least 5 times, and two of those were back-to-back in the first fight. I'm unsure of the sixth crit, but it plausibly could have happened.

Probability and observed behavior are interesting and intriguing things. Knowing how rare something might be allows you to appreciate it even more when it happens. It is a memory that will stand out for all players involved, much like the time my dwarf dagger thrower once picked up a fallen foe's longbow and rapid-shotted three arrows, hitting a fleeing enemy at maximum range, rolling 3 consecutive 20's on the attack rolls and confirming two of them with nat 20's. It's the sort of story that legends are made of, and the only way to confirm the truth is to ask the others involved. (ask Noonan sometime about how I earned my "I roll twenties" t-shirt)

As far as providing the playtest reports to Dragon -- I've got enough going on that I don't want to commit to a schedule for playtest updates. By blogging them, I can get some details out (which some of you seem to want to read), while not feeling obligated to hit some deadline and add the report to my workload.

Thanks for posting and welcome to the boards!

I'd just like to reaffirm that right now I'm enjoying every single playtest report, and particularly enjoying drawing out the little bits of crunch that get revealed in each one.

 

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

Heh, I have a group with a couple of roll-cheaters, one in particular.

I caught him bad a month or two ago. He thought I wasn't looking and I seen him touch the d20 after he'd rolled with the tip of his finger. The gas thing was the original roll (7) was good enough.

He now has to declare his intent to roll and keep all hands off the table. He has also coined the "roll and move" technique for multiple dice cheating, with multiple attacks or something like a fireball, he will gather the dice after a roll to make it easier to add them, in the process of the move it will become a higher number. He is quite skilful and I love catching him: Autofail and an XPs penalty on the encounter....

Not to accuse the player above of cheating. Girls cheat less in my experience.

We also have such a player, though I sometimes think he is more miscalculating then manipulation dice nowadays. But we decided to no longer watch his rolls (not that it matters - i have a red-green weakness and that are exactly the colors his primary dice set uses), it's just to annoying.