Success of d20?

[Synicism]

Well, from a consumer's standpoint, d20 has created a huge wealth of new stuff for me to choose from. Some of it is really, really good... much better, it seems, than similar offerings from Wizards of the Coast. Some of it is terrible. An awful lot falls somewhere in between. It's all about choices, and choices are good.

From a designer's standpoint, it's given a lot of good people the chance to publish when they might not have been able to before. Any writer will tell you that the first publishing credit is always the hardest to get.

So what do I think will happen? Darwinism. Outfits that produce solid books with good content will stick around. Outfits that don't, won't. There's a lot of speculation out there as to how many will remain standing when the d20 boom finally crashes. But I'd be willing to bet that they all share certain traits.

1. They have a stable income. Either because their books sell real well or because they have a stable product base outside d20 and make enough off their d20 lines to be self sustaining.

2. Their books are mechanically sound and people are willing to use their "crunchy bits" in their games. Some people's crunchy bits are really good. Some are so horribly overpowered that you'd have to be insane to allow them in a game. Publishers that have more reasonable, well constructed crunchy bits will do better in the long run than publishers that don't. Especially now, as the market is growing up and designers and editors alike are developing more of a feel for the system.

3. They'll put out something that is fairly unique to them. Even if they publish mainly OGL, if you can identify a publisher by its books (great crunchy bits, a unique campaign setting, historical fantasy, and so on), you're more likely to pick them up if you're looking for what they specialize in.

 

[trancejeremy]

Hmmm, according to that chart, a Simpsons Rubix Puzzle is #3, and the best d20 product is at #4. Perhaps all the d20 companies should start making rubix puzzles instead?

 

[trancejeremy]

Yeah, I think crunchy d20 books will continue to sell pretty well, or stuff usable in any D&D game. But setting specific stuff might struggle a bit. And even that tends to have a solid fan base. At least really specific stuff. Generic adventures might die out, unless they are really remarkable.

 

[DPG Darrin]

OK, this is all opinion here, but lets look at the D&D products from previous editions.

Crunchy mechanics were all the rage when 2nd edition AD&D was new. Remember the class books that decreased in popularity once they got to the book of Giff? Once the newness of the new rules wore off and the rules were available, the focus shifted to the adventures and then to campaign settings. I think 3rd edition/D20 will be much the same . How many different class books focusing on the same class will people invest their money on? How many different sets of seafaring rules are necessary? I'm guessing that most people will be happy with 1 book delving into a given subject. As long as there is a demand for new materials along these lines they will continue to be produced, but how long will the demand for this type of product remain once all the bases are covered? Once the rules are out of the way, what does that leave?

Campaign settings
Monster & magic books
adventures

Note that even though the D20 companies hit the adventures pretty hard at first, their popularity has never gone away, and there has been a steady stream of adventures since the beginning of role playing. I think that the reason for this can be explained as being similar to science. New ules and crunchy bits are like new theories. They're interesting, you want to test them, and in the end they can lead to some very useful things in the game. Adventures, while usually being somewhat low on crunchy bits, are applied theory. It is here that you pull rules, monsters, items, etc. from a number of different sources and mix it all together to come up with something unique that, if used, has a necessary function at the game table.

Monsters, spells, and magic will always be popular as long as the new stuff being produced is imaginitive. I personally don't need to see 30 different versions of orcs, but I don't mind seeing new monsters from all CR ranges. I applaud the quality and the creativity of all the monster books I've seen thus far from the D20 industry, starting with the Creature Collection. There's a lot of potential here because you can never have enough new monsters to chellenge your players with. Spells and magic are much the same. The more stuff you can bring to the table that is unrecognizable to the players, the more entertained they will be with the game session. Familliar monsters, while fun, are kind of like warmed over left overs.

Campaign settings are an interesting category because you can literally go in any direction you want with these. 2nd edition had Ravenloft for the horror lovers, Darksun for something completely different, Greyhawk revivals for the traditionalists, the Forgotten Realms for the magic heavy games, and many more covering virtually every flavor of game that you can think of. In the D20 market, this could be a great area for new stuff. There's also the potential for non-fantasy settings with the D20 rules. Personally I have and will continue to invest in the Scarred Lands and the Forgotten Realms, but I also picked up and was very impressed with the detail on the Codex Arcanis and (last night I just picked it up) the Codex of Erde. As long as the flavor of the campaign settings is suitably different from one offering to another, I think they will do well and will establish their own fan bases. True, this is a bit of a fracturing of the market, but its not necessarily a bad one.

I was thinking last night about how the Codex of Erde seems more 1st edition (from the writing style to the paper to the orange spine with the black letters and Gygax's name appearing on the cover of the book) than other settings. Necromancer Games makes great adventures with a first edition feel. I can't think of any reason that I wouldn't want to set the Necromancer adventures in the world of Erde!

So my predictions on the D20 industry: certain companies have and will continue to prosper by having an established track record for excellence. We'll probably see a number of others either consolidate or fold just because of the sheer number of us right now. There only is so many dollars to go around. Stronger product lines and more recognized names will most likely survive, and some newcomers that do good work will probably survive as well. Companies with products that cover the same areas of the rules over and over will probably not do as well as those with products that attempt to branch out into different areas. That just leaves the question of whether or not the PDF publishers will make it. My answer to that is that we've tested those waters and are going to print.

 

[Mystic Eye]

I can see goods points in every post to this thread and want to throw my 2 cents into the hat as well.

The bottom line is, and others have said this, there is only so deep the money pool goes. new blood trickles in and old blood flows out.
The winners in this race are those that can simply grab their portion of the "market share". This can be done in many ways but I think that those that focus entirely on generic offerings will eventually suffer regardless of quality becuase they have no hook to create a loyal fan base. Eventually, generic products will have covered all the major topics and the sales will fall off tremendously.
Though many of you have only got a taste of it, we, like some others have a unique setting that is filling a niche or two. We have created a loyal fan base apparently. The indicator to this is restocks by distributors as well as fan emails with questions, comments, and praise.
It is the guys that create that fan base that will survive in my book. SSS has a loyal following for scarred lands and as long as they continue to make solid products to keep their base in their world they will be fine.
Troll Lord is developing a setting specific fan base for Erde. Thunderhead's Bluffside may be easy to add to a campaign world but it is developing a loyal fan base for its city setting and it is not even on the shelves yet.
Privateer Press launched with a setting that people liked, or rather, loved. If they can turn up the heat on production they will "Steam" ahead.
Dragonstar-fantastic setting in my book. They WILL have a loyal base for this product-no doubt.
You get the point.

At first, generic was the way to go becuase so much was yet to be covered. There is still room for lots of generic stuff. Not forever though.
As far as the d20 crash, it is a self fulfiling prophecy that is not happening to a level that people are suggesting but will happen if people keep saying it will.
The only time we experienced a slow down was during our shift over to Osseum while distributors and retailers were trying to find us and word was getting out. Now, restocks are high and all is going strong. We are growing ,steady and well. Will we be rich, heck no, will we be able to keep going, I am confident we will but we will need to be ever more creative.
Some of the guys who were once producing massive 10k -30k print runs are the ones being most impacted now. They have had to reduce their print runs and so for them it is a major decline. For us smaller guys, if you can't find 3-5000 loyal people to buy your products on a regular basis we need to rethink your strategy and product offering.
Well done adventures will always sell but not in quantities of 10k + and that is just the way it is. Maybe some have a big enough base to pull that kind of number off (Atlas, FFG, WOTC, Kenzer, and a few others) but us mid-range guys won't see that kind of number for adventures unless we find an entirely new channel to sell to.
As a personal example (and I find this amazing) our first product- The Pit of Loch-Durnan- is a great adventure and story, flawed in some ways by us being brand new at the time and on a very limited budget (like how most of us start). The amazing thing is that that adventure. now seven months old, still sells around 50 units every single month. Personally, I thought it would be dead by now. It demontrates that there IS still a solid market for adventures. That may not seem like a big number but we have cleared all costs on that book a few times over.

To wrap up my long winded post, Those who find their loyal fan base (market share), offer an interesting and creative setting, put out solid products, Continue to have a strong presence in regards to marketing and self promotion, will keep going.

Those that do not move away eventually from generic offerings or consistantly put out low quality products will go bye bye (but may stay in a low end PDF market).

Also, quit helping to fulfil the d20 demise prohpecy with the doom and gloom and think "half full" for a change. The d20 market is extremely young and has a lot of maturing to do before it fails.

My 2 cents, well, more like my dollar, but this is my opinion of this topic.

 

[DungeonKeeperUK]

Re: d20 boom?

I agree with Mr. Walker's assessment (from Scrollworks Press). As long as the OGL and d20 SRD are available, there will continue to be new material for the d20 System

As I understand it there will always be a d20/OGL now for the info so far. Beleive its right that once materail is published as OGL they can't take it back, so it wil always be around in one for or another..
But don't quote me on that..

 

[DungeonKeeperUK]

I agree with the Mystic Eye guy...

 

[DPGTony]

I agree with the Mystic Eye guy...

You agree with the Mystic Eye guy...

You...agree...with the Mystic Eye guy...

You looked at the eye didn't you?

Didn't you!

<sigh> Another who has become a slave to the diabolical influence of "The Eye."

 

[Mystic Eye]

You are cracking me up!

The eye has no power...really...its nothing.
just gaze at it for a while and you will see. nothing at all.

 

[Mark]

You are cracking me up!

The eye has no power...really...its nothing.
just gaze at it for a while and you will see. nothing at all.

Are you saying the "Alfred Hitchcock" profile is unintentional?