My biggest gripe with bell curves is - your only count middle theory aside - is precisely that it makes modifiers unpredictable. A +2 might be worth less on a roll than a +1 is on another and ir realky depends not on sone predictable theme like "latters more for harder" or "matters more for eadier" but for "matters more when its meh difficult" and so on.Bell curves make the game a lot less granular and makes min-maxing for any extra modifier a much bigger deal.
I'm going to talk about normal bell curves right now, I haven't worked out the math on your red-die modifier but it seems like it won't make a large difference in what I talk about.
With bounded accuracy, the results you need are supposed to be near the middle for on-level challenges. Consider two characters, one that needs an 10 or higher (55% with a d20) and one that needs an 11 or higher (50% with a d20). That +1 grants a 5% difference in success with the current system.
But with a classic 3d6 bell curve, that is a 12.5% modifier. So a +1 weapon or starting with perfectly aligned race ability scores for your class can give you a large leap up over others.
And because of bounded accuracy, these are really the scores we care the most about, the ones near the middle. It's above a 5% difference until you get to the extremes of 15+ or 6+ - in other words for probably 95% or more of the dice rolls needed to make the target in actual play it gives a much bigger modifier then 5%
So in general bell curves decrease granularity, penalizes build "casual" or themed builds because a +1 is now worth much more in the system, and makes +X items a much bigger difference. None of those are positive for me.
My biggest gripe with bell curves is - your only count middle theory aside - is precisely that it makes modifiers unpredictable. A +2 might be worth less on a roll than a +1 is on another and ir realky depends not on sone predictable theme like "latters more for harder" or "matters more for eadier" but for "matters more when its meh difficult" and so on.
For me, i have never seen a situation in a game where i felt there was enough precision in description and skills to see anything more "precise" than 5% increments as needed.

(Dungeons & Dragons)
Rulebook featuring "high magic" options, including a host of new spells.