Tabletopocalypse Now - GMS' thoughts about the decline in the hobby

Not a strong position. Tabletop RPG websites do not account for much of the TRPG gaming population WotC has claimed their market research reveals. And, we are of highly pre-selected types. We don't represent gamers as a whole. So, while we may not segregate, it may be that the masses of other players do.

GMS specifically identified the online TRPG presence as shrinking down to a small, hardscore group who identify as "gamers" in a way that does not include playing other games.

GMS said:
The problem, though, is that what we’re left with in the tabletop community are the hardest of the hardcore — which can be both a positive and a negative. They’re dedicated (obsessive), loyal (rigidly orthodox), and constant (inflexible). This is their preferred method of gaming — but for most, that’s led to an almost self-segregation from the rest of gaming: console, online, PC, board, cards, etc. A lot of these folks don’t even seen these other platforms as part of the same hobby. When they say “gamer”, they mean “tabletop gamer” — the rest of the wider gaming world is part of some other hobby.

I posited to my friend that I don’t think the overall level of negativity and vitriol found in the community online has changed much since the dawn of the internet. What has changed is the size of the community — the negativity is at the same level, but the community is far smaller. Part of that is probably because we’ve dwindled to the True Believers — the ones most strident in their identification with the hobby, and therefore possessed of the most passion in arguing about it.

Pre-selected or no, GMS's gamers
who only play tabletop games are mythical.

My instinct is that there is huge crossover between the groups. However, the presence on sites like this is not a solid indicator.

It's true I don't have extensive marketing data, but I know of no tabletop gamers, none, who is not involved in at least one more of MMOs, trading card games, miniature wargaming, or board games. When I visit gaming stores, many of the players there are tuned into Halo and WoW and so forth. Game Chest, at Valley View, has a huge RPG section, selling back to back with board games, and the front desk is flooded with collectible card games and more. Why would these all be sold at the same place if they aren't sold to a somewhat unified group of customers?

As a matter of style and rhetorical strength - if you are going to try to call someone else's position a myth, I would recommend against using unprovable, anecdotally supported assertions to do it. It is well known that sales data for the early days does not exist - Gygax himself said so, IIRC - leaving your position unprovable. Basically, you're pitting your legend against his myth.

My point doesn't hinge on those anecodotes. Tossing that whole discussion out the window, it's obvious that many gaming groups have more players than they have copies of the rules. I also see plenty of AD&D books in stock at Half Price. As those books came from somewhere, that implies someone has stopped playing AD&D, which means that sometime in the last couple of decades, they WERE playing AD&D.

In college, I was involved in playing many games which were unavailable at local game stores, including Torg (OOP at the time), Tales from the Floating Vagabond, and Synnibarr. I also played in a Hero System conversion of Forgotten Realms with some Palladium add-ons. In fact, during my two years of college, I don't think I saw anyone purchase brand new RPGs of any kind apart from Vampire and Werewolf.

At the moment, I agree that this is likely. Someone would step in to try to be the next Paizo. But that's if all the publishers disappeared tomorrow. Today, demand exists, but times change. If companies disappeared after, say, five years of slide into economic failure and increasing player apathy, such revival would be rather less assured.

Considering how long AD&D has held its head above water, I am confident many current products can look forward to a long life.
 

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publishing companies dont design games to be played forever (thats why I dont call D&D a "real" game).
Publishers produce books about games and then design the books to become obsolete, as soon as possible. This is done so they can sell more books.

And you think Hasbro designs games to be played forever? Monopoly: Today's Cartoon edition? Monopoly City? Monopoly the Card Game? Monopoly the Flame Thrower? I bet they strictly control quality on Operation, so that parents won't feel cheated, but it does break down before it can get passed around too much. There was one Clue variant that depended on a website that Hasbro promised to keep alive until 2011; how's that for forever?

Hasbro board-games has as much vested interest in keeping you buying new games as does Hasbro-WotC. And a book, with a little bit of care and luck, can last a century without problem. Books don't loose pieces like board games do, and they certainly don't have mechanical breakdowns like a lot of board games do.
 

And you think Hasbro designs games to be played forever?

No, I think its obvious that hasbro produces game products, and wants to make sure that they will need to be replaced for either poor replay, or low production quality.

And though this policy is great for making the company money, its not so good for a hobby.
 

Well, to point out an analogy, I don't think RPGs are going to die out for the same reasons mountain climbing isn't going to die out. Curiousity/the drive to explore is a human trait, just like speaking or role playing.
Even if all the sport shops on the planet were to stop selling mountaineering gear and climbing equipment, people would just keep climbing those mountains. Furthermore, as long as the population continues to expand, the number of prospective mountain climbers can only go up. Growth would be less than if the sporting good stores supported them, proportionally, but I believe this analogy still holds for the RPG hobby and industry.
 

It's true I don't have extensive marketing data, but I know of no tabletop gamers, none, who is not involved in at least one more of MMOs, trading card games, miniature wargaming, or board games.

I have one counterexample to this assertion.

Personally I am one of those "mythical" tabletop gamers who is not involved in MMOs, trading card games, miniature wargaming, or board games. :p
 
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Please dont compare real games like chess, and checkers, to a published IP like Dungeons and Dragons.

No offense, but....
I think its important to point out, the main differance between a game like chess and D&D publications, is that publishing companies dont design games to be played forever (thats why I dont call D&D a "real" game).
Publishers produce books about games and then design the books to become obsolete, as soon as possible. This is done so they can sell more books.
I reject this dichotomy, no offense.

I daresay that nobody designed games to be played forever. The rules for all those classic games I mentioned evolved over centuries. And for all we know, centuries from now, chess may be virtually unrecognizable to us.

And there is nothing preventing anyone from using the OD&D rules- assuming they have a copy- 3000 years from now. (And they'd better invite diaglo.)
 

Well, to point out an analogy, I don't think RPGs are going to die out for the same reasons mountain climbing isn't going to die out. Curiousity/the drive to explore is a human trait, just like speaking or role playing.

For one, I think Mountaineering - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia gives decent evidence that mountain climbing as sport is only three hundred years ago. The first attempt on Mont Blanc, the obvious challenge sitting in the middle of a populated, wealthy area was only attempted 235 years ago. The end of national parks, the end of readily available maps and mountain climbing tools, and the end of the social spirit that encouraged those things, and mountain climbing would die out.

Secondly, roleplaying games are about 35 years old. I think that when claiming that something is an immortal part of the human spirit, that thing needs to be more than 35 years old.
 

I have one counterexample to this assertion.

Personally I am one of those "mythical" tabletop gamers who is not involved in MMOs, trading card games, miniature wargaming, or board games. :p

Do we need a maiden to catch you? ;)

I've managed to stay out of MMOs, and BattleTech is more a boardgame than a miniature wargame, but I must plead guilty to having extensive TCG, Boardgame and RPG collections... and playing all of them a lot.

Personally, I think there's no doubt that the economy is causing a lot of grief in the hobby game business. As to the state of RPGs at present: I'm not in a position where much of any sort of meaningful data is coming in.

I have a suspicion that the current state of D&D 4E is not what Wizards would really like it to be. Apart from the problems caused by splitting the market with the release, the aggressive release schedule of the more popular books leaves them in the state where most new books will be third tier in the realms of popularity.

This is all complicated by D&D Essentials, which is meant to get a lot of new players into D&D, but has been confused by a haphazard release schedule.

I was curious to see what new D&D releases came out in Q3 2010. Here's the list:

Late September:
* Master Tiles: Dungeon
* Rules Compendium
* Heroes of the Fallen Lands
* Lords of Madness (minis)

Early September:
* Red Box

End August:
* Castle Ravenloft boardgame (now sold out -as of Oct 8)

Mid August
* Dark Sun Creature Catalog
* Marauders of the Dune Sea
* Psionic Power
* Dark Sun Campaign Setting

Mid July
* Demonicon
* HS2 Orcs of Stonefang Pass
* Vor Rukoth
* Tomb of Horrors

(Of note: Marauders of the Dune Sea is *still* not available in Australia).

Cheers!
 

Just spotted this:

GMS Article said:
What has changed is the size of the community — the negativity is at the same level, but the community is far smaller. Part of that is probably because we’ve dwindled to the True Believers — the ones most strident in their identification with the hobby, and therefore possessed of the most passion in arguing about it.

Ummm, what? The online gaming community is smaller now than in the past? Hasn't En World practically doubled in size in the past five years? I thought I saw somewhere something like 90k members. WOTC's site is ginormous.

How has the online community gotten smaller?
 

Just spotted this:

Ummm, what? The online gaming community is smaller now than in the past? Hasn't En World practically doubled in size in the past five years? I thought I saw somewhere something like 90k members. WOTC's site is ginormous.

How has the online community gotten smaller?

The problem with the site numbers is that they don't generally count active members, just total members.

Conversely, BoardGameGeek.com has 250,000 members, of which 60,000 are actively on a monthly basis. It dwarfs the size of any RPG site.

My impression is that - at present - boardgames are on the rise as a hobby game - although they may have hit their peak. Warhammer and Magic are fairly constant. RPGs are probably trending downwards, although we can hope that D&D Essentials help turn that around.

Cheers!
 

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