The Book of Experimental Might: Now in Print!

[SteveC]

They don't have to outsell 4e. They'd just have to reach all the people Wizards managed to piss off. I think it quite possible that they could pull it off.

I have to seriously disagree here. I will make a wager that 85% of the people who are currently saying "no way!" to 4E will be talking about their new characters and the new edition as if nothing ever happened come June.

That isn't meant to be an insult to the folks that feel betrayed, it's just my experience going through this process many times before. The new game might not be what everyone hopes it will be (it isn't for me) but it's still likely to be darn good. We've seen so little of it at this point that I think people are taking offense at, well, everything.

We'll see.

--Steve

 

[Aus_Snow]

I have to seriously disagree here. I will make a wager that 85% of the people who are currently saying "no way!" to 4E will be talking about their new characters and the new edition as if nothing ever happened come June.

That isn't meant to be an insult to the folks that feel betrayed, it's just my experience going through this process many times before. The new game might not be what everyone hopes it will be (it isn't for me) but it's still likely to be darn good. We've seen so little of it at this point that I think people are taking offence at, well, everything.

We'll see.

--Steve

FWIW, I wish all the best for Wizards of the Coast, and those who plan to go with 4e (as well as those who simply end up doing so) - however, it seems to me that there will be quite a significant number of 3e/d20/OGL 'grognards' still in the market for more 3rd party material, especially if that material would happen to come from sources widely considered to be reputable (e.g., Paizo, Necromancer, Green Ronin. . .)

Of course, 'we'll see' sums it up perfectly, as you say. But I honestly think you might be underestimating or possibly even misrepresenting 'the other side' here. There have been more than just a few people detailing why they won't be moving to 4e, and more often than not it's mainly (or solely) because there is no pressing need/no particular reason to. IOW: The current game/s suit/s their needs, so no need to 'fix' it.

There are other noteworthy and common reasons, but I suspect there's no need to go over those yet again, in this thread. Suffice it to say, it might not be a backlash, per se, but it sure looks like a definite and rather sizeable minority happy to stay with 3e and/or 3e-era/spin-off games.

So, if there was any way it could be confirmed or denied for certain, I'd take that wager of yours. For sure.

 

[buzz]

There have been more than just a few people detailing why they won't be moving to 4e, and more often than not it's mainly (or solely) because there is no pressing need/no particular reason to. IOW: The current game/s suit/s their needs, so no need to 'fix' it.

But is "more than a few" enough to sustain a game line? Especially when we have to assume that no single "3.75" product is going to be adopted by all of them.

Not to mention, a switch is a switch. If I'm not willing to give 4e a try, why would I be willing to try (read: buy) some non-WotC semi-overhaul? Honestly, I'd find it sort of hypocritical. "I'll buy a upgrade... as long as it's not from WotC."

 

[SteveC]

Of course, 'we'll see' sums it up perfectly, as you say. But I honestly think you might be underestimating or possibly even misrepresenting 'the other side' here. There have been more than just a few people detailing why they won't be moving to 4e, and more often than not it's mainly (or solely) because there is no pressing need/no particular reason to. IOW: The current game/s suit/s their needs, so no need to 'fix' it.

There are other noteworthy and common reasons, but I suspect there's no need to go over those yet again, in this thread. Suffice it to say, it might not be a backlash, per se, but it sure looks like a definite and rather sizeable minority happy to stay with 3e and/or 3e-era/spin-off games.

So, if there was any way it could be confirmed or denied for certain, I'd take that wager of yours. For sure.

That may be the case, and I certainly don't want to tell people who feel very strongly about this issue that they're lying, because I'm sure they're not.

What I do know is that the new edition will be shiny. Never underestimate the power of the shiny as far as gamers are concerned. Add to that the fact that it is extremely likely that the major third party manufacturers will no longer be producing content for 3X, and the fact that about 98% of the conversation on this website will be about 4E...you get a huge turnover of players to 4E, even if they're not thinking about it now.

I say this because I've been here before. I've been with the game since before the AD&D Monster Manual hit the shelves, and I've seen AD&D go to Unearthed Arcana (oh, was there a stink there!) and then to second edition (what are these monster names? where are my demons and devils!) and then to 3X. In each case, there were many folks who said "I have all the books, modules, whatever that I need." In each case, most of these people upgraded.

If anything, 85% is too low a number.

I actually feel confident enough to make this one a Stone-Cold, Lead-Pipe Lock of the Year for my subscribers, but I don't really have a way to measure the numbers in a meaningful manner.

EDIT
Just to be a little on topic, I would certainly take a look at Monte's system, but then I am a rules artisan (is that like a sandwich artist?) so I like to heavily house rule the games I play. So I'd buy it...along with 4E.

--Steve

 

[Aus_Snow]

But is "more than a few" enough to sustain a game line? Especially when we have to assume that no single "3.75" product is going to be adopted by all of them.

I honestly have no idea! Not my business to know these things, either (literally, anyway.)

Speculation is the order of the day/week/month/year. Time will tell, and all that.

Not to mention, a switch is a switch. If I'm not willing to give 4e a try, why would I be willing to try (read: buy) some non-WotC semi-overhaul? Honestly, I'd find it sort of hypocritical. "I'll buy a upgrade... as long as it's not from WotC."

Hm. I suppose I'm under the impression that quite some number of gamers see too much in 4e that they dislike, and/or too little that they like. However, something that offered some appealing and apparently sensible changes, but wasn't a total overhaul (but instead, a 'semi-overhaul', in your words) might still catch their eye. It might seem more like a logical progression, rather than striking off in what could be seen (and is by some) as kinda arbitrary directions, hither and thither. Or maybe not arbitrary, so much as motivated by things other than purely and simply bettering the game system. This, according to some. I'm not saying it's absolute truth, just for the record.

So, IOW, some kind of '3.75e' could be seen not as a 'switch' per se, just as 3.0 to 3.5 wasn't seen that way by a good many. So too, for any number of even less comprehensive mods. . . 3.6e, say?

Yes, speculation indeed. I'm as guilty as any.

 

[Kae'Yoss]

I have to seriously disagree here. I will make a wager that 85% of the people who are currently saying "no way!" to 4E will be talking about their new characters and the new edition as if nothing ever happened come June.

Don't know about anyone but me - and I'm not even saying "no way" (I'm saying that I'll use whatever Pathfinder will use) - but I will buy only a the necessary 4e stuff (if I will get 4e), i.e. only the stuff that will make its way into the SRD thus being usable by third-party companies.

I did already sharply cut back on my Wizards purchases - no more miniatures (I used to collect sets), and none of their coming RPG books (okay, the stuff in the next months will be useless anyway, but before It became clear that 4e flavour would taste sour, I was planning on getting some of them). I also stopped reading FR novels (I used to get and read them all).


And I was a big FR fan. I'm sure that others have similar thoughts on this. I can't say whether it's only 15% of those who are pissed at Wizards right now, though. We'll have to see.

 

[buzz]

I suppose I'm under the impression that quite some number of gamers see too much in 4e that they dislike, and/or too little that they like.

I honestly believe that the visibility of these people on gaming fora far outweighs their actual numbers. And I don't mean that as a slight; it's just the way it always seems to go. I also agree with SteveC that a goodly number of these people will probably end up playing 4e anyway.

Never underestimate the power of pretty books.

 

[buzz]

Oh, and...

So, IOW, some kind of '3.75e' could be seen not as a 'switch' per se, just as 3.0 to 3.5 wasn't seen that way by a good many. So too, for any number of even less comprehensive mods. . . 3.6e, say?

It's still a change, and different publishers may choose to implement different mods, and whatever changes may still require some tweaking of the buyer's existing product.

I understand that it may simply be an issue of degree, but I figure you either stand by your guns or you open yourself to change.

 

[Sir Brennen]

I honestly believe that the visibility of these people on gaming fora far outweighs their actual numbers. And I don't mean that as a slight; it's just the way it always seems to go. I also agree with SteveC that a goodly number of these people will probably end up playing 4e anyway.

Never underestimate the power of pretty books.

Also, a fact brought up within my own gaming group... many 3.5 "grognards" quite likely are in groups which the majority will be interested in at least trying 4E. I doubt that many people will find it worthwhile or even practical to leave a group just because they don't want to switch editions.

 

[jmucchiello]

If they are true grognards they won't do anything 4e until 2010. My group of 2e grognards didn't play a game using the 3.0 rules until early 2002. And while we are converted to 3.5 now. I suspect the current campaign arcs won't be over until 2010 when we might change to 4e. (My other group that isn't full of long time players other than me will most likely convert/switch over quickly.)

Oh, and the ballsy name would Monte Cook's 4th Edition. But he probably has too many ties to the existing developers to go with something so "in your face".