The consolidation going on

Corinth said:
RPG clubs and FLGS must vigorously enforce two policies:
  1. No pirated materials are allowed; possession or distribution of such materials--if discovered--will result in immediate expulsion and possible legal consequence (i.e. we'll report you to the cops).
  2. Members must own the rulebook for whatever game that they wish to play by the third time that said group meets to play. Failure to do so will result in immediate expulsion.
These two will go a long way towards solving the problem of having only two copies of a rulebook amongst a single gaming group, and it will protect the clubs from liability. Conventions can do this as well; just remove the grace period from the second clause (for obvious reasons). Add a further clause regarding presentability--an anti-CatPissMan clause--and you're golden.
Not sure I agree with this. How do you determine what is "pirated" and what is not? If I show up with a few pages copied from my rulebook which I left at home because I don't want to drag the whole rulebook along, is that piracy? I consider it "fair use" myself. Will you require me to drag along my receipt for the book? This is too much trouble, and gamers, being the lazy lot that we are, will simply go elsewhere.

The second one is even more silly. Why does EVERY player in a group need the Core Rulebook? And how is this going to help all the d20 companies? In the case of d20, it only helps WotC. And why can't I just bring a (free) copy of the System Reference Document on my laptop? It's the *rule*book, right? Why can't I let my friend borrow my rulebook to make his character? That's "Fair Use." Again, this will not help at all; gamers will merely find somewhere else to play.

I understand where you're coming from - you're attributing lost sales to "piracy" but I think you overestimate the problem of piracy as it relates to Lost Sales (repeat after me: "Fair Use" - such as sharing a single copy of a rulebook - is NOT Piracy and more importantly "An Illegal Copy is NOT NECESSARILY a Lost Sale" - and keep in mind I'm saying the latter as a PUBLISHER, not as someone who is a "materials pirate" - in my mind, many people who have "pirated copies" of stuff would not have bought it if the price were greater than free, so there's no real Lost Sale there - they are unethically benefitting from my work, but their ethics or lack thereof is a totally separate and distinct issue from my Lost Sales).

Further, you're killing an ant with a sledgehammer. This introduces an extra level of work to gaming, which most gamers don't want. If I want to play 5 games at a Convention, do I need to haul around a backpack with 5 different rulebooks? If I want my group to try a new game, why should all of us go buy the book when one book would suffice at least for a tryout period of a month or two? Most of all, why are you so desirous to trample my "Fair Use" rights in letting me lend my copy of my book to a friend? In one of the longest-lived gaming groups I worked with, we had a "library" set up at the house of the guy we normally played at... we all bought a book here or there and kept all the books at this guy's house - then when we wanted to take a book, we just took it with us. Since everyone had tossed 10-15 books into the "community pile" we didn't worry about who the "original owner" was - we just took what we needed and returned it when we were finished. And having a library of around 100 books to choose from since we decided to share was much better than having a library of 10-15 had we all purchased our own books. Is THAT against your sense of fair play?

Your heart is in the right place, but the execution is sorely lacking.

--The Sigil
 

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Corinth said:
RPG clubs and FLGS must vigorously enforce two policies:
  1. No pirated materials are allowed; possession or distribution of such materials--if discovered--will result in immediate expulsion and possible legal consequence (i.e. we'll report you to the cops).
  2. Members must own the rulebook for whatever game that they wish to play by the third time that said group meets to play. Failure to do so will result in immediate expulsion.
These two will go a long way towards solving the problem of having only two copies of a rulebook amongst a single gaming group, and it will protect the clubs from liability. Conventions can do this as well; just remove the grace period from the second clause (for obvious reasons). Add a further clause regarding presentability--an anti-CatPissMan clause--and you're golden.

The day people start trying to enforce what they think is right, regardless of why they think it's right, is the day I walk away from the gaming table. I can see the first part very clearly but the second?

How many copies of Hero 5th edition do you really need? Or Call of Cthulhu? Those are big, expensive books that not everyone in the group needs to own.
 

Jim Butler said:
I think what you're seeing is the start of a collapse; not consolidation.

...

I've been chatting with a number of distributors asking them about sales across the industry. And while there is some disagreement about whether or not the size of the pie (total industry sales) is growing, there's no doubt from any of them that sales of every single publisher's products have dropped since May of this year. Only WotC has been largely immune to the sales drop (and then only with their new 3.5 releases). Sales of backstock is dead, dead, dead (even from WotC).

...

There are so many new products released that no one can keep track of them any more. Some retailers have taken to ordering fewer and fewer of all products, others have resorted to just special orders of new releases, and others yet have decided to stick with a few select publishers. Big distributors are slashing their initial orders of titles so that they don't get stuck with stock they can't sell.

What would you do to make things better?

What I wish someone, like enworld, would do, is put together and maintain an 'essential' collection. It would be a single webpage that would contain the list of well reviewed products that had been out for a while, that (mostly) everyone agreed was good quality. It would list the name of the product, who makes it, and a short description (with a link to a full blown review). Things that get nominated for Ennies could be on the list, and EN World could have a periodic poll to see what gets added to the list, with some caveat that the product has to have been out for a month. At the end of the year you could then use what was added that year as your Ennie nominations...

I think that would help by allowing us gamers to rewards companies that put out quality products with our purchases.

I go to a FLGS about once a week with my wife, but we are only there for ~20 minutes. I don't have time to browse all of the books there (they have two big display racks and two full bookcases!) Lately I have ended up buying 2 packs of the D&D Miniatures ($20). I would have liked to have bought a book for around that much instead, but I have no idea what is good, and I don't have the time when I am there to figure it out...
 

monkius said:
What I wish someone, like enworld, would do, is put together and maintain an 'essential' collection. It would be a single webpage that would contain the list of well reviewed products that had been out for a while, that (mostly) everyone agreed was good quality. It would list the name of the product, who makes it, and a short description (with a link to a full blown review). Things that get nominated for Ennies could be on the list, and EN World could have a periodic poll to see what gets added to the list, with some caveat that the product has to have been out for a month. At the end of the year you could then use what was added that year as your Ennie nominations...

The ENWorld of the past could have done just this. But ENWorld has changed a great deal since the days of Eric Noah. Now, many publishers view ENWorld not as neutral ground, but as yet another publisher trying to get pieces of the sales pie--and asking us for advertising revenue to support their efforts.

That might sound a bit harsher then it should, but the reality of it is there. Just take a look at the ever-diminishing variety of banner ads on this website. No one wants to support their competition--no matter how many gamers they might reach.

And I think the gamers have noticed as well. They used to come to ENWorld for the latest news. But now they've seen that ENWorld is yet another publisher--they're no longer trusted neutral ground. With that said, how much would *you* trust ENWorld to recognize only the best and to provide a good listing that you could rely upon?

That this isn't to say that Morrus can't be trusted: He's done absolutely nothing wrong. But in tying ENWorld to ongoing publishing eforts, he's changed what ENWorld was and that by its very nature invalidates certain claims of unbiased and neutral dealings.

I go to a FLGS about once a week with my wife, but we are only there for ~20 minutes. I don't have time to browse all of the books there (they have two big display racks and two full bookcases!) Lately I have ended up buying 2 packs of the D&D Miniatures ($20). I would have liked to have bought a book for around that much instead, but I have no idea what is good, and I don't have the time when I am there to figure it out...

This is a failing at the publisher, distributor, and retailer levels. We (as publishers) should be letting you know what's coming out and when, and why it's good. Retailers should be able to show you what's coming out this week and why you should care (because the distributors had to convince them to buy it).

Ultimately, I don't believe a trusted third party is going to emerge that everyone can trust. Hell, even reviews vary widely based on a reviewer's interest in the topic and respect in the company that produced it. Yet your observation at your local game store is *exactly* the problem that we (as publishers and an industry) must overcome.
 

Jim Butler said:
The ENWorld of the past could have done just this. But ENWorld has changed a great deal since the days of Eric Noah. Now, many publishers view ENWorld not as neutral ground, but as yet another publisher trying to get pieces of the sales pie--and asking us for advertising revenue to support their efforts.

For what it's worth, I am not one of those publishers.

That might sound a bit harsher then it should, but the reality of it is there. Just take a look at the ever-diminishing variety of banner ads on this website. No one wants to support their competition--no matter how many gamers they might reach.

I think every major company supports their competition through advertising in any magazine. Every magazine is a competator for the rpg customer's dollar. Dungeon, Dragon, Valkryie, KotDT, EN Player's Journal are all competing with every rpg release because there's a limited amount of money being spent in the market and they're taking their piece.

And I think the gamers have noticed as well. They used to come to ENWorld for the latest news.

This is the first time I've ever heard anyone viewing EN World in such a manner.

But now they've seen that ENWorld is yet another publisher--they're no longer trusted neutral ground. With that said, how much would *you* trust ENWorld to recognize only the best and to provide a good listing that you could rely upon?

As much as I'd trust any third party to be neutral. My discernment of their policies leads me to think that they are the most neutral.

That this isn't to say that Morrus can't be trusted: He's done absolutely nothing wrong. But in tying ENWorld to ongoing publishing eforts, he's changed what ENWorld was and that by its very nature invalidates certain claims of unbiased and neutral dealings.

Unlike every other place we advertise that has a significant number of viewers/subscribers, EN World is very independantly operated. The staff reviewers and moderators are not in the pay of Morrus or Hellhound, unlike every paper magazine.

Ultimately, I don't believe a trusted third party is going to emerge that everyone can trust. Hell, even reviews vary widely based on a reviewer's interest in the topic and respect in the company that produced it. Yet your observation at your local game store is *exactly* the problem that we (as publishers and an industry) must overcome.

I think EN World is already a trusted 3rd party. Sure they (Morrus and Hellhound) compete with publishers as EN Publishing, but EN World is not overly associated with the pub house. Again, nobody here is getting paid by Morrus or Hellhound and therefore EN World has the best neutrality of any existing location/publication with a large reader base.

joe b.
 

The Sigil said:
The problem, as Jim alludes to, is not so much the size of the pie; rather, the problem is that the number of pieces the pie is cut into is so many that any individual piece is small. There are two ways to deal with this... either find a way to get more pieces or cut the pie into fewer pieces to begin with.

The problem is even worse then that. In some cases, publishers barely break even on a product release (and a new publisher loses money). Doing 2 (or 5) products that barely break even isn't much help, especially considering the amount of work involved in producing an RPG. And with product life cycles hovering around 30-45 days, by the time you finish one work it's time for you to release another book just to break even. Or lets say you release 5 books in a month and one of them tanks... ouch!

The cycle has gotten more and more frenzied as time has gone on... in general, publishers have increased their tempo with more releases, less time between products, and so on and so forth... which of course is counter productive because when EVERYONE is doing it, the pie is getting minced faster than you can demand more pieces. I think the acceleration has slowed of late because publishers simply CAN'T put out releases faster than they already do... and because the barrier for entry (cost-wise) has been set fairly high, it's hard now for a "new player" to enter the game.

I disagree. Anyone with a credit card, a manuscript, and some basic typesetting skills can enter the game. The barrier to entry is *extremely* low in publishing. Granted, some self-published work is utter crap, but that doesn't prevent anyone from paying for a print run and selling it into the channel.

While the distributors might require you to work through a fulfillment house in order to accept your book (just so they have leverage with those houses for returns), no one wants to turn away free money. Fulfillment houses and distributors don't pay for the costs of design, print run, illustration, editing, typography, and other expenses--they just take the money offered to them. And if they get to turn around and send back what they don't sell (and they should), then the new publisher is the only one left holding the bag. It costs them virtually nothing to sell a product.

The first of the "big names" to fall won't make much of an impact... there are still too many guys out there splitting the market... the size of the pie slices won't increase appreciably. But as more and more of them start to fall off, the size of the pie slices will start becoming noticeably bigger, and eventually, we'll swing back past the point of equilibrium (we're overextended now). Those that survive will be (a) those with the cash reserves to publish at full speed and "ride out the storm," (b) those with a solid fanbase/sales/revenue stream, and/or (c) the "agile" ones that carefully conserve their resources and slow - but do not stop - their releases as the market begins to collapse, recognizing that once the collapse begins in earnest, it will take fewer slices of the pie to maintain the same profitability level, and scale back their releases at a rate roughly equal to the increase in pie size.

I believe that the only way that equilibrium will be reached is through changes at the distribution and retailer levels. Retailers must say "no" to new upstart companies that haven't shown them something truly remarkable, and distributors need to say the same thing. Until someone raises the bar, I believe that we'll see the same rush of new companies releasing wave after wave of products that keep the market rocking.

And what about the damage that's already been done? A number of retailers have lamented to me about the mistakes they made earlier in the d20 boom. Those mistakes are still sitting on their shelves (and probably will be for a while). I suspect that many distributors are also suffering from some excess stock situations from companies that are no longer around.

The collapse will be ugly. And after the collapse, we'll probably overshoot the "sweet spot" and be underextended. Because the slices are so big once the remaining players are fewer, you'll see companies (a) scale back a little bit so they don't overextend themselves or (b - more likely) there will be another grab for more slices of pie, including by startups. This will again overextend the market - though probably not as much as before. This will trigger another collapse, though not as big, and the "sweet spot" won't be missed by as much. And things will roll back and forth, with alternating booms and busts, each smaller than the last in magnitude, until equilibrium is reached.

"The beatings will continue until the industry improves. Painful, but probably true.
 

The Sigil said:
Not sure I agree with this. How do you determine what is "pirated" and what is not? If I show up with a few pages copied from my rulebook which I left at home because I don't want to drag the whole rulebook along, is that piracy? I consider it "fair use" myself. Will you require me to drag along my receipt for the book? This is too much trouble, and gamers, being the lazy lot that we are, will simply go elsewhere.
If a club or convention allows the use of pirated materials, then it leaves itself open for legal action should such materials be found by the authorities. It's in the club/convention's best interests to ensure that members don't endanger it by using illegal materials. In the main, this policy would remove the use of illegal PDFs and bootleg photocopies from spaces under club/convention control; this is an entirely reasonable expectation. If you want a cheat sheet for rules reference, then make your own; ten minutes with a word processor and a printer (or a pencil and a pad of paper) is cheaper than two minutes at the copy machine. Couple this with the reporting of violators to the police--piracy is a crime--and the problem will go away swiftly.
The second one is even more silly. Why does EVERY player in a group need the Core Rulebook? And how is this going to help all the d20 companies? In the case of d20, it only helps WotC. And why can't I just bring a (free) copy of the System Reference Document on my laptop? It's the *rule*book, right? Why can't I let my friend borrow my rulebook to make his character? That's "Fair Use." Again, this will not help at all; gamers will merely find somewhere else to play.
This policy is to get rid of spongers, freeloaders and others leeches that can't be bothered to make the appropriate commitment to the hobby that they say that they like but--by their actions--treat with contempt. $30-$50 for one book is not too much to ask; these same people pay that much for a videogame for their PC or console system, which they use far less for a shorter period of time. Tabletop RPGs are not a casual hobby; they require that everyone make a commitment of time, money and energy to get much of anything out of it. If a would-be player can't commit the money, then chances are that he's not that likely to commit the time or the energy to make his presence worthwhile. Get rid of him; you'll be better off if you do.
I understand where you're coming from - you're attributing lost sales to "piracy" but I think you overestimate the problem of piracy as it relates to Lost Sales (repeat after me: "Fair Use" - such as sharing a single copy of a rulebook - is NOT Piracy and more importantly "An Illegal Copy is NOT NECESSARILY a Lost Sale" - and keep in mind I'm saying the latter as a PUBLISHER, not as someone who is a "materials pirate" - in my mind, many people who have "pirated copies" of stuff would not have bought it if the price were greater than free, so there's no real Lost Sale there - they are unethically benefitting from my work, but their ethics or lack thereof is a totally separate and distinct issue from my Lost Sales).
I'm attributing a great deal to the concept that too many players can't be bothered to spend the minimum amount necessary to get the minimum gear to play the game: a set of dice and a rulebook. The investment of money often equals the investment of time and energy required to make participation worth the effort.
Further, you're killing an ant with a sledgehammer. This introduces an extra level of work to gaming, which most gamers don't want. If I want to play 5 games at a Convention, do I need to haul around a backpack with 5 different rulebooks? If I want my group to try a new game, why should all of us go buy the book when one book would suffice at least for a tryout period of a month or two? Most of all, why are you so desirous to trample my "Fair Use" rights in letting me lend my copy of my book to a friend? In one of the longest-lived gaming groups I worked with, we had a "library" set up at the house of the guy we normally played at... we all bought a book here or there and kept all the books at this guy's house - then when we wanted to take a book, we just took it with us. Since everyone had tossed 10-15 books into the "community pile" we didn't worry about who the "original owner" was - we just took what we needed and returned it when we were finished. And having a library of around 100 books to choose from since we decided to share was much better than having a library of 10-15 had we all purchased our own books. Is THAT against your sense of fair play?
Save for demostration events--where it's counter-productive--yes, you'd need to have your own rulebook. That would demonstrate to the GM that you know enough about the game to avoid asking questions better suited for a demo; this saves time that is in short supply at conventions. If you want to try a new game, then go to the demo; that what demostration events are for.

And if you gather with your friends into an informal partnership to jointly own a library, then you are a part-owner of the library and thus own all of the contents of that library. Go figure.

Players that don't own the rulebook often don't know enough about the game to participate in a meaningful manner. Buying their own copy is often enough to fix the problem; buying a copy of the rules usually precedes the actual learning of the rules, because spending the money creates a feeling of obligation in most players that results in them reading the rules and thus learning the game. This makes the player into someone that doesn't drag the game down by asking the questions best answered by "Read The Manual", and instead becomes someone that is able to participate meaningfully to the game for the benefit of all at the table. It's not obvious, but I've seen the effect happen so often for so long that I must conclude that this is true.
Your heart is in the right place, but the execution is sorely lacking.
It's a first attempt. Fine-tuning in the field is inevitable. That said, this sort of reformation of the gamer subculture is long overdue. The expectations placed upon people in mainstream daily life don't extend here; they should, and those that don't measure up must be made to pay the consequences.
 
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Jim Butler said:
I've been chatting with a number of distributors asking them about sales across the industry. And while there is some disagreement about whether or not the size of the pie (total industry sales) is growing, there's no doubt from any of them that sales of every single publisher's products have dropped since May of this year. Only WotC has been largely immune to the sales drop (and then only with their new 3.5 releases). Sales of backstock is dead, dead, dead (even from WotC).

I have to disagree with this. I am not calling you a liar Jim (far from it!) and I have no doubt that you have been told this - but it is not the full story.

There are traditional peaks and troughs throughout thew year in this industry. The peak in July and Jan/Feb, for example, or the fall in December and August. I don't know how WotC are doing with their sales, 3.5 or no, but sales have not dropped across the board for every single publisher since May. Our sales have gone up in this time period and, for the first time, we have not noticed the traditional drop in August. There was a similar crunch at the end of last year that hurt a great many companies but again, we didn't have even a small bump - and I know we are not alone.

The same applies to back catalogue sales. I am aware of many publishers selling absoulte zero of lines after a few months but, again, we have found our back orders to be remarkably stable and it is this, more than our front-loaded releases, that make Mongoose a reliable company, from the perspective of cash flow.

Things are getting very bad for some of the companies out there - as an experiment, check out the number of adverts in Dragon from d20 publishers and compare that to the same time last year. The results may frighten you quite a bit! This is part of the vicious cycle. Dragon advertising is one of the most effective mediums out there but it is also hellishly expensive - so it becomes the first to be dropped when a company hits cashflow problems. Unfortunately, that has an impact on future sales, leading the spiral downwards.

However, I'll take the opportunity to say that if there are any publishers out there reading this who are in serious financial trouble, or are heading that way, give me a shout at msprange@mongoosepublishing.com. We are fans of many other publishers and it would be a shame to see some disappear. Give me a holler and we'll see if we can't work something out.
 

This is the first time I've ever heard anyone viewing EN World in such a manner.

Well, people who come just for the news aren't likely to be posting about it on the boards. In my circle of gaming friends (about 10), maybe 4 check EN World for news. I'm the only one that posts. I only came here for the news for along time; it wasn't until I got stopped participating in a few mailing lists that I started posting here.

Unlike every other place we advertise that has a significant number of viewers/subscribers, EN World is very independantly operated. The staff reviewers and moderators are not in the pay of Morrus or Hellhound, unlike every paper magazine.

But Morrus runs the front page. -I've- certainly noticed that every EN World product gets 2 paragraphs and 2 weeks at the top of the front page of the most popular gaming site on the web. I've also noticed, for over a year, certain publishers get a little extra treatment, and certain publishers get a little less. I don't think it's deliberate preferential treatment, but it's not neutral.

I think Morrus is a nice guy. I think he's a great guy for supporting pdf's as much as he does. But he does own and operate the site, he does own and partially operate EN Publishing, and there is crossover between the two above and beyond what other publishers are afforded. It's at least a bit unseemly, and I can understand publishers being put off by it.

Cheers
Nell.
 
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monkius said:
What I wish someone, like enworld, would do, is put together and maintain an 'essential' collection. It would be a single webpage that would contain the list of well reviewed products that had been out for a while, that (mostly) everyone agreed was good quality. It would list the name of the product, who makes it, and a short description (with a link to a full blown review). Things that get nominated for Ennies could be on the list, and EN World could have a periodic poll to see what gets added to the list, with some caveat that the product has to have been out for a month. At the end of the year you could then use what was added that year as your Ennie nominations...

Part of the problem is that there are a lot of really good products out there. There are a whole bunch of products rated with 4 or 5 stars. So many, in fact, that such an "essential" list would be very long, and not be as useful as intended.

While there are exceptions, the quality of many new releases is pretty good, it's just the quantity that's the problem.

I think a better idea to do something like this might be to start a thread and ask everyone to respond with, say, their 5 "must-buys" outside the core rules. Then you'd have to decide if you'd want to include WotC in that group. You may even want to do several threads - one for each type of product (i.e., monster books, character-enhancing books, adventures, campaign settings, etc.) Just a thought.
 

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