The Essentials articles are atrocious.

[GMforPowergamers]

Basic math time, people.

Level 1 sword-and-board fighter with 18 Strength and Weapon Proficiency (Bastard Sword) vs. Hobgoblin Commander, Level Soldier, with Phalanx Soldier (AC 23):
Attack Bonus: +7 (4 Strength modifier + 3 proficiency)
Hit Chance (Melee Basic): 25%
Hit Chance (Sure Strike): 35%
Average Damage on a Hit (Melee Basic): 9.5
Average Damage on a Hit (Sure Strike): 5.5
Average Damage on a Swing (Melee Basic): 2.375
Average Damage on a Swing (Sure Strike): 1.925

Level 1 sword-and-board fighter with 18 Strength and Weapon Proficiency (Waraxe) vs. Hobgoblin Commander, Level Soldier, with Phalanx Soldier (AC 23):
Attack Bonus: +6 (4 Strength modifier + 2 proficiency)
Hit Chance (Melee Basic): 20%
Hit Chance (Sure Strike): 30%
Average Damage on a Hit (Melee Basic): 10.5
Average Damage on a Hit (Sure Strike): 6.5
Average Damage on a Swing (Melee Basic): 2.1
Average Damage on a Swing (Sure Strike): 1.95

As you go higher in the levels, things are still stacked against Sure Strike. Oh, sure, your opportunity attacks are more accurate with them. That is wonderful. Meanwhile, the sword-and-board fighter with the wiser power selection can use Footwork Lure or Tide of Iron on an opportunity attack, stopping the enemy's movement and bringing herself and her foe to a more advantageous position, also getting to be more useful on her own turns since she has a choice between two very nice at-wills. And dealing more damage while at it too.

yes that is a great way to compair powers in a vacume...but I play with real dice and real people that do not always follow probability...

example: melee basic +7 Sure strike +9... I am going for AC 20...I need an 11 or a 13...

on a 1-10 both miss on an 11 one hits the other does not, on a 12 one hits the other does not...13+ both hit.

now since my game doesn't do avrages (does anyone???) there are two numbers I can roll that make sure strike better then a basic... so if I roll an 11 on my melee basic I don't do x.x toward dpr I do NOTHING...NADA...ZILCH...ZERO

so tell me again how avrages figure out what I am going to roll? Oh they can not...in fact in order for the avrage to be seen in most games a power has to be used 2-3 hundred time...

remember my die has no memory at all...I roll 1d20 it has a 5% chance to land on any number...lets say it is a 20...my next roll has a 5% chance of beign a 20...my next roll after that has a 5% chance of being a 20... now lets say I rolled those 3 20;s in a row do you know what the odds of a 4th 20 is then?
5%... infact I could roll 1,000 times and never roll a 1, or a 2 or a 3...how does yor statstics handle that?


edit: I want to be clear I understand DPR is the only way to compair characters on line...but it is not a good messure in the real game. I have known plnety of hot or cold streaks that have lasted for levels (and no that is not me endorsing luck...it is just the way it is)

If your character has twin strike and mine has careful strike, and we both fight togather and you keep rolling below 10, and I keep bearly hitting guess who does more damage...me, becuse there is no miss effect on twin strike, and DPR avrages doesn't kill monsters...real damage does...hence the diffrence between theory and pratice.

 

[Mr. Wilson]

Sure strike isn't much maligned. It isn't maligned enough. It is the worst at will Wizards has presented thus far. I can't imagine ever using it over a basic melee attack, let alone any of the other at wills. It is literally, that terrible of a power.

I don't like the essential articles and have stopped reading them. They may give good explanation to mechanics, but they are not good when it comes to character building. I agree with the OP that linking to the Char Op board handbooks would be a much better option if they're talking math and power choices.

Finding out that the Tact Lord advice doesn't even suggest taking Commander's Strike (or worse, start with 14 int!?!?!?) just reinforces my belief that the series should just be blown up.

 

[Cadfan]

yes that is a great way to compair powers in a vacume...but I play with real dice and real people that do not always follow probability...

Your dice do not follow probability???

so tell me again how avrages figure out what I am going to roll? Oh they can not...in fact in order for the avrage to be seen in most games a power has to be used 2-3 hundred time...

Um, no. I know its the traditional thing to do whenever someone mentions a poll or a statistical projection or something, but it doesn't actually take a very large sample size to start making statistically significant predictions or comparisons. 30 is a good number for most simple studies.

remember my die has no memory at all...I roll 1d20 it has a 5% chance to land on any number...lets say it is a 20...my next roll has a 5% chance of beign a 20...my next roll after that has a 5% chance of being a 20... now lets say I rolled those 3 20;s in a row do you know what the odds of a 4th 20 is then?
5%... infact I could roll 1,000 times and never roll a 1, or a 2 or a 3...how does yor statstics handle that?

With flawless mathematical precision?

 

[GMforPowergamers]

Your dice do not follow probability???

technicly you got me...at 2 in the morning I used the wrong word...they follow probability not statistics..

With flawless mathematical precision?

no with real life dice bought fromt he chessex booth at gen con...

If I roll 30d20 and get no 1's, and no 4's, but 5 16's what does that mean???

 

[Cadfan]

Finding out that the Tact Lord advice doesn't even suggest taking Commander's Strike (or worse, start with 14 int!?!?!?) just reinforces my belief that the series should just be blown up.

Actually, I'm pretty convinced that the "Int Uber Alles" reputation that the Tactical Warlord has is not born out by the actual class. I'd be happy to play a tactical warlord with a 14 intelligence, especially if that 14 helped me apply points towards strength.* You can't use Commander's Strike every round, after all.

Though Commander's Strike is kind of an obvious thing to recommend.

*In order to avoid the arms race to a 20/15/10/10/10/8 stat block, my group has agreed to always use the 16/14/13/12/11/10 array. So a 14 intelligence would be almost inevitable unless the character were a genasi. And based on experience with tons of other classes and characters who also use that array, things would be just fine. I accept that this is a lesser degree of optimization than the person using the full fledged 20/15/etc array, but its quite functional and helps our group socially.

 

[Cadfan]

If I roll 30d20 and get no 1's, and no 4's, but 5 16's what does that mean???

It probably means nothing.

You can't just declare yourself exempt for probability and statistics. Real life doesn't work like that.

 

[GMforPowergamers]

*In order to avoid the arms race to a 20/15/10/10/10/8 stat block, my group has agreed to always use the 16/14/13/12/11/10 array. So a 14 intelligence would be almost inevitable unless the character were a genasi.

if you use the 16/14/13/12/11/10 array wont any +int race make you a 16 str 16 Int tac lord though...I know my eladrin taclord was built that way.

Infact I was 16, 12, 12, 16, 11, 13 after race in that game...

 

[Mr. Wilson]

Actually, I'm pretty convinced that the "Int Uber Alles" reputation that the Tactical Warlord has is not born out by the actual class. I'd be happy to play a tactical warlord with a 14 intelligence, especially if that 14 helped me apply points towards strength.* You can't use Commander's Strike every round, after all.

Ah, see, on the other hand, I do believe and am pretty convinced that having at least equal Int and Str is the way to go (for tact lords). Even in your stats, I would have 16 str and 16 int (assuming I played a human or eladrin, let alone a genasi).

I can patch the +hit issue with feats (expertise, WP: Bastard Sword) and CA. Sure, you can't use Commander's Strike all the time (though I do use it the majority of the time, pairing with a barbarian is FUN), but the nova effect of LTA et al is important enough that the trade off is worth it, IME.

Of course, my party does stick closesly to me so that we may smite our foes beneath the striker's heels.

 

[GMforPowergamers]

It probably means nothing.

You can't just declare yourself exempt for probability and statistics. Real life doesn't work like that.

yes it does...statistics are not real numbers they are limited messurment of chance...

again in the long run in a perfect vacume statistics can come close to avrage...but in D&D almost none of that is true.

Let me set you an example of last tuesday night...my fighter (highest attack in the game) missed all but 3 at will attacks out of the game (yes 4 encounters I missed with all my encounter powers and my daily power)... it was 4 combat encouters and 2 skill challanges...meanwhile our 15 str cleric crited 3 times with his str at will...

by the way just becuse I find it funny I will point out my daily was reliable... and missed 4 rounds in a row in one fight, and 2 rounds in a row in a second in the same day...

 

[Cadfan]

Ah, see, on the other hand, I do believe and am pretty convinced that having at least equal Int and Str is the way to go (for tact lords). Even in your stats, I would have 16 str and 16 int (assuming I played a human or eladrin, let alone a genasi).

I can patch the +hit issue with feats (expertise, WP: Bastard Sword) and CA. Sure, you can't use Commander's Strike all the time (though I do use it the majority of the time, pairing with a barbarian is FUN), but the nova effect of LTA et al is important enough that the trade off is worth it, IME.

Of course, my party does stick closesly to me so that we may smite our foes beneath the striker's heels.

See, I don't consider that "patching." I consider expertise to be standard issue. And a +3 weapon is standard issue when your shtick is hitting and inflicting conditions or bonuses rather than high damage.

It really comes down to whether you'd rather have +1 attack and damage on all of your own attacks, or +1 attack on the bonuses you grant to allies attacks. Commander's Strike is great, but after the early heroic tier I'm pretty sure I'm going to find myself wanting the benefits on my attack rolls, since they're gatekeepers for the bonuses I give out other than those that come from Commander's Strike and from my action point ability.