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The Full & Glorious History of NuTSR
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<blockquote data-quote="Umbran" data-source="post: 9067252" data-attributes="member: 177"><p>We can only speculate. But "LaNasa treats people near him like dirt," and "reminding people you and this game are associated with a bankrupt business doesn't aid sales" and, "I'm not some marketing genius getting big money to do this, I just forgot or stopped after a while," might be high on the list of possibilities.</p><p></p><p>But that's really not how proof works. While we like to have alternate narratives, what we really should do is start from, "correlation doesn't imply causation" and realize we have to build a positive case, rather than assume a narrative we like, and weigh lack of an opposing narrative as meaningful. </p><p></p><p>First and foremost - "Dungeon crawl is visible <em>if you zoom in close</em> does not stand as an advertisement on McArt's part. I do not believe those are intentional inclusions ("Make sure my product is in the shot, but only if you super-zoom in on the image" - said by no marketing manager, ever.) Therefore the exclusion shouldn't be taken as intentional, either. The guy takes pics of his booth and posts them online. Whether the game is in the background or not is not meaningful. </p><p></p><p>We have "dozens" of ads between two accounts. That's going to be double (and possibly triple+) counting events. The ads between the two accounts wouldn't be independent - they'll tend to show up in both for one event. In addition, for venues like Twitter, there's a typically pattern to tweet a given item more than once a day, as by evening, an early tweet may be buried by the algorithms.</p><p></p><p>So, after eliminating repeats and not-actual-ads, we might only be left with a handful of real attempts to boost the game, over a couple/several months, at which point we'd be hard pressed to claim this was ever a major priority for McArt, or the timing as clearly meaningful. </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>McArt is a small businessman, right? So, NuTSR's policies within their own spaces aren't relevant to how McArt boosts his own business in his own social media. If McArt noticed a lot of negative feedback on his posts boosting the game, he'd likely stop. The bankruptcy then may be a confounding bias - the bankruptcy raises the number of folks who respond negatively to NuTSR, making McArt's stream full of negativity that will hurt future sales, so he stops.</p><p></p><p>This is the problem with narratives - we can <em>make them up</em>. I just made up several.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Umbran, post: 9067252, member: 177"] We can only speculate. But "LaNasa treats people near him like dirt," and "reminding people you and this game are associated with a bankrupt business doesn't aid sales" and, "I'm not some marketing genius getting big money to do this, I just forgot or stopped after a while," might be high on the list of possibilities. But that's really not how proof works. While we like to have alternate narratives, what we really should do is start from, "correlation doesn't imply causation" and realize we have to build a positive case, rather than assume a narrative we like, and weigh lack of an opposing narrative as meaningful. First and foremost - "Dungeon crawl is visible [I]if you zoom in close[/I] does not stand as an advertisement on McArt's part. I do not believe those are intentional inclusions ("Make sure my product is in the shot, but only if you super-zoom in on the image" - said by no marketing manager, ever.) Therefore the exclusion shouldn't be taken as intentional, either. The guy takes pics of his booth and posts them online. Whether the game is in the background or not is not meaningful. We have "dozens" of ads between two accounts. That's going to be double (and possibly triple+) counting events. The ads between the two accounts wouldn't be independent - they'll tend to show up in both for one event. In addition, for venues like Twitter, there's a typically pattern to tweet a given item more than once a day, as by evening, an early tweet may be buried by the algorithms. So, after eliminating repeats and not-actual-ads, we might only be left with a handful of real attempts to boost the game, over a couple/several months, at which point we'd be hard pressed to claim this was ever a major priority for McArt, or the timing as clearly meaningful. McArt is a small businessman, right? So, NuTSR's policies within their own spaces aren't relevant to how McArt boosts his own business in his own social media. If McArt noticed a lot of negative feedback on his posts boosting the game, he'd likely stop. The bankruptcy then may be a confounding bias - the bankruptcy raises the number of folks who respond negatively to NuTSR, making McArt's stream full of negativity that will hurt future sales, so he stops. This is the problem with narratives - we can [I]make them up[/I]. I just made up several. [/QUOTE]
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