The Oscar Buzz Thread! (Oscar Nominees Announced!)

[Mark]

So let's get this thread up to speed...

Can everyone add whatever they know, even if it is just links to other threads with some buzz, so we can hang on to all this in one place for the archives. (We'll be itching to know what we thoughts at this time when next year rolls around, I'll wager.)

 

[Shadowdancer]

Here is the link to Hollywood Stock Exchange and what people there consider to be the most likely nominees in the major categories.

 

[Sirius_Black]

SAG Nominations

The Screen Actor's Guild (SAG) Nominations, another excellent Oscar precursor, were announced yesterday with some surprises.

SAG Nominations

Additionally, TiQuinn, I'm becoming more and more a believer that you will prove to be dead on right and Johnny Depp might get nominated for POTC. I still have that bad feeling in my stomach that the Academy won't do it, but the SAG nomination does show there is still very strong support for him to get the nod.

 

[TiQuinn]

The Screen Actor's Guild (SAG) Nominations, another excellent Oscar precursor, were announced yesterday with some surprises.

SAG Nominations

Additionally, TiQuinn, I'm becoming more and more a believer that you will prove to be dead on right and Johnny Depp might get nominated for POTC. I still have that bad feeling in my stomach that the Academy won't do it, but the SAG nomination does show there is still very strong support for him to get the nod.

Well, I think the big difference maker here is that PotC was well-received both by critics and the audience, with Depp being the lynchpin in the reviews. But we'll see!

 

[Shadowdancer]

I think SAG was trying to send the Academy a message with its nominations. SAG appears to be trying to bring attention to some non-conventional acting choices, at least non-conventional in regards to performances that the Academy usually nominates.

 

[howandwhy99]

I really liked a lot of the films that came out this year as opposed to the last couple of years. Here's the sight I use to scan ahead of time what I might want to go see.

http://www.metacritic.com/film/

It's nice because sometimes I will see a trailer that looks really interesting or just get roped into seeing a movie with friends who are set on certain film. By checking the scores and those reviewers I tend to agree with at the site I can avoid the really horrible movies. (like this year's Cat in the Hat)

Here's my take on the general categories:

Best Picture:

BP is a really difficult choice this year with "Lost in Translation" and "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" (RotK) being the two big front runners. The two films couldn't be more different either. RotK is a huge fan favorite; a real blockbuster which has been building support for the last two years. It has quite a bit of financial success behind it, if somewhat of a ballooned (IMO) critical success. The movie itself is long, but never dull and while I wasn't sure about the theatrical releases, the extended home versions of the film are real deal. It is an epic fantasy, and though the Academy really doesn't vote for SciFi or Fantasy (see the post on ET earlier), it tends to give up Oscar to the epics most everytime.

Lost in Translation (LoT) on the other hand is more in the tradition of film than movie. It seems more like a French film masquerading as an American film set in Japan. By which I mean it isn't trying to so much tell a story as evoke a mood. If Rotk can resurrect the fantasy genre, than maybe LoT can bring the arthouse film to the masses. Sofia Coppola writes and directs LoT what might be an autobiographical tale (which she denies), but the similarities between her and the main character are many. Check Sofia out in Godfather III for the look and style alone.

The outsider, I think, is Mystic River which Clint Eastwood has been promoting as his last great film. I actually don't like almost all of his directed work, but the script and sheer quality of acting in the film (not to mention Eastwood's own considerable clout), might allow it to nab Oscar out from under the big two.

Best Actor:

This category really belongs to Sean Penn in my opinion as he has had a breakout year giving two incredible performances in two very good movies (Mystic River & 21 Grams). The funny thing is that Bill Murray has been picking up more nominations from other societies than anyone else. I must admit I've found him hilarious in Rushmore where he played um... himself I guess. But seeing the same portrayal done twice (now in LoT above) it loses somewhat of its charm for me. Unlike his Groundhog's Day role which I seem to be able to watch over and over and... Oh well, it's just Oscar.

Best Actress:

Whew! I must admit I haven't seen the movie Monster, but it sounds like the award is Charlize Theron's to lose. Since I still have one more movie to see, I can't really tell you my take, but look for Naomi Watts (21 Grams), Scarlett Johansson (LoT & new Hollywood IT girl), Diane Keaton (Something's Got to Give), and Nicole Kidman (Cold Mountain) to show up in the nominations.

Best Supporting Actress:

If Scarlett Johansson isn’t nominated above, she will be here. I’m thinking some other nominees will be: Patricia Clarkson (Pieces of April), Renee Zellweger (Cold Mountain), and Hope Davis (The Secret Lives of Dentists or American Graffiti). I can’t really say who will win in this category either, but who get nominated how and which picture takes home the Oscar is likely to have a lot to do with it.

Best Supporting Actor:

I’ll be upfront and say the I would like to see Alec Baldwin win this for “The Cooler”. Outside of Sauron, his character might be the most evil on screen this past year. If you remember seeing him in Glengary Glenross, then you will have an inkling of what I mean. The critic’s favorite this year is Peter Sarsgaard in “Shattered Glass”. This is another one I’ve missed, but one the list to see.

Best Director:

Last, but not least, is Best Director. This is probably the most hotly contested category of them all. The three main contenders mirror the nominees I mentioned for Best Picture, being Sofia Coppola (LoT), Peter Jackson (RotK), and Clint Eastwood (Mystic River). I would guess the Golden Globes got it right and Peter Weir (Master and Commander) and Anthony Minghella (Cold Mountain) round out the category.

I believe Clint Eastwood is really pushing for this, but seeing as he has already won for “Unforgiven”, I believe he hampered by it in such a close race. Peter Jackson did what many thought impossible by making the “LotR” into a real, watchable film and Sofia Coppola made what might be the year’s best film in only her second effort.

My guess? Seeing as in 73 years only 2 other female directors have even been nominated for the Best Director Award (none have won), Sofia Coppola will take home the Oscar.

My other guess is that giving Coppola the Best Director award means the Academy will divvy up the prizes and give LotR Best Picture. Given their penchant the last few years for rewarding big pictures while more and more movies are being made on smaller budgets, I think LotR will pull through in the end.

 

[Mark]

Here's a site from 1998, but it has a lot of catelogued information from awards shows past (and a list of many other awards besides the Oscars, with links!)

http://members.aol.com/reedyb/oscar/awards/awards.htm

 

[Mistwell]

This campaign by Miramax to put Cold Mountain up is absolutely disgusting at this point in Los Angeles. Anyone else in this area know what I am talking about?

I cannot listen to the radio anymore without hearing an ad for why Cold Mountain is the best picture of the year every other advertising break!

 

[Sirius_Black]

This campaign by Miramax to put Cold Mountain up is absolutely disgusting at this point in Los Angeles. Anyone else in this area know what I am talking about?

I cannot listen to the radio anymore without hearing an ad for why Cold Mountain is the best picture of the year every other advertising break!

Wait a minute???!!! A Miramax campaign being called disgusting???!!!

Color me stunned.

 

[Mistwell]

Wait a minute???!!! A Miramax campaign being called disgusting???!!!

Color me stunned.

Yeah, okay, this happens every year. I can still whine about it like a little baby, can't I?