D&D 4E The Quadratic Problem—Speculations on 4e

Assumptions

1) Baseline success rate is 50% (11+ on d20). At any given character level, we assume that the PC has a 50% chance to succeed against the typical opponent, and vice versa.

2) +/- 5 is the new +/- 4. In a 50% baseline system, a shift to 16+ means the success rate is halved; a shift to 6+ means the success rate gains 50% (150%).

3) “Quality” is equal to attack power (ap, measured in points of damage) multiplied by defensive power (hp, hit points). This is a very basic abstraction.

4) Party size is five PCs.

The Wizard

We begin this design process with the “baseline” wizard.

1) We’re stretching 20 levels across 30 levels, so caster level advances at a 2/3 rate. Column A is character level; column B is caster level using the formula INT(A*2/3)+1.

2) Our baseline wizard is capable of firing off an arcane blast, at will, that deals 1d6 damage per caster level to a single target. This attack assumes the 50% success rate (either due to a caster attack roll, saving throw, etc.)

Column C tracks the average damage done at each character level, or attack power (ap).

3) Our baseline wizard begins the game with 3 maximum HD of 1d6 each—I’ve rounded it up to 20 hit points—and gains 4 hit points per level. Column D tracks hit points across 30 levels.

4) Column E tracks the wizard’s Quality (ap x hp).

5) Column F tracks “Party Quality.” This number is derived by the number of party members squared, multiplied by the average Quality. (Lanchester’s Law).

6) The baseline wizard defines the curve for everything else.

WIZARD
Code:
A	B	C	D	E	F
Level	CL 2/3	(ap)	(hp)	QUALITY	Party Quality
1	1	4	20	80	2000
2	2	7	24	168	4200
3	3	11	28	308	7700
4	3	11	32	352	8800
5	4	14	36	504	12600
6	5	18	40	720	18000
7	5	18	44	792	19800
8	6	21	48	1008	25200
9	7	25	52	1300	32500
10	7	25	56	1400	35000
11	8	28	60	1680	42000
12	9	32	64	2048	51200
13	9	32	68	2176	54400
14	10	35	72	2520	63000
15	11	39	76	2964	74100
16	11	39	80	3120	78000
17	12	42	84	3528	88200
18	13	46	88	4048	101200
19	13	46	92	4232	105800
20	14	49	96	4704	117600
21	15	53	100	5300	132500
22	15	53	104	5512	137800
23	16	56	108	6048	151200
24	17	60	112	6720	168000
25	17	60	116	6960	174000
26	18	63	120	7560	189000
27	19	67	124	8308	207700
28	19	67	128	8576	214400
29	20	70	132	9240	231000
30	21	74	136	10064	251600

The Fighter
1) For the fighter, we start with his hit points. We give the fighter 3 maximum HD of 1d10 at 1st level, and 8 hit points per level afterwards. Column G tracks the Fighter’s hit points.

2) The Fighter should have the same power as the wizard across all levels. Column H shows Quality / Hit Points to derive “ap req.” This is the minimum amount of offensive power the Fighter would require to remain on the same power curve as the Wizard.

For example, at 1st level, the wizard has 20 hp and does 4 damage, for a Q of 80. If the fighter has 30 hp, he needs to do 2.67 damage. As you can see, this column starts out too low. We know the fighter will "overachieve" 2.67 damage per attack.

3) Column I shows “ap actual.” For this column, we assume the fighter wields a martial weapon; he has a +3 damage bonus from STR (or otherwise); and he receives a damage bonus of ½ his BAB in lieu of iterative attacks.

4) Column J is included for comparison purposes only. On average, using the old system of iterative attacks, a fighter’s base damage was multiplied by 1.75 upon gaining the second iterative attack; by 2.25 for the third iterative attack, and by 2.5 for the fourth iterative attack. Using 8 as our baseline damage, you can compare iterative attacks vs. damage bonus based on ½ BAB, and you can see they actually compare favorably.

5) Column K shows the different between ap req. and ap actual. At 1st level, a Fighter is actually doing more damage than we require to keep apace of the Wizard’s quality. However, starting at 8th level and up, he starts to fall behind. Column K is the number of damage points differential.

6) Column L looks at the damage differential and starts to award the fighter “1d6 bonus dice” in order to play “catch up” with the wizard. Where do these bonus dice come from? Flaming. Holy. Anarchic/Axiomatic. Bane weapons. Perhaps even special maneuvers. We really don’t care where they come from—the bottom line is that the fighter has to have them if he’s going to remain competitive in damage-dealing vs. the wizard.

7) Column M tracks the fighter’s new damage totals, with average damage from those bonus dice added in.

8) Column N now calculates the fighter’s Quality based on these numbers. (Column G x Column M).

Column O shows the fighter's Quality without those "catch up" bonus dice.


FIGHTER
Code:
 	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O
Level	hp	ap	ap	iter		bonus	w/	Q w/	Quality
		req	actual			d6 req	bonus	bonus	(actual)
1	30	2.67	8	8	-5	-2	8	240	240
2	38	4.42	9	8	-5	-2	9	342	342
3	46	6.70	9	8	-2	-1	9	414	414
4	54	6.52	9	8	-2	-1	9	486	486
5	62	8.13	10	8	-2	-1	10	620	620
6	70	10.29	10	8	0	0	10	700	700
7	78	10.15	10	8	0	0	10	780	780
8	86	11.72	11	14	1	0	11	946	946
9	94	13.83	11	14	3	0	11	1034	1034
10	102	13.73	11	14	3	0	11	1122	1122
11	110	15.27	12	14	3	0	12	1320	1320
12	118	17.36	12	14	5	1	16	1829	1416
13	126	17.27	12	14	5	1	16	1953	1512
14	134	18.81	13	14	6	1	17	2211	1742
15	142	20.87	13	18	8	2	20	2840	1846
16	150	20.80	13	18	8	2	20	3000	1950
17	158	22.33	14	18	8	2	21	3318	2212
18	166	24.39	14	18	10	2	21	3486	2324
19	174	24.32	14	18	10	2	21	3654	2436
20	182	25.85	15	18	11	3	26	4641	2730
21	190	27.89	15	18	13	3	26	4845	2850
22	198	27.84	15	18	13	3	26	5049	2970
23	206	29.36	16	20	13	3	27	5459	3296
24	214	31.40	16	20	15	4	30	6420	3424
25	222	31.35	16	20	15	4	30	6660	3552
26	230	32.87	17	20	16	4	31	7130	3910
27	238	34.91	17	20	18	5	35	8211	4046
28	246	34.86	17	20	18	5	35	8487	4182
29	254	36.38	18	20	18	5	36	9017	4572
30	262	38.41	18	20	20	5	36	9301	4716

9) The blue line shows the wizard’s Quality from 1st to 30th level; the yellow line shows the fighter’s Quality (without any bonus dice); and the pink line shows the fighter’s Quality (with bonus dice).

graph1.jpg


The Brute

1) A “brute” is a creature designed to tackle the party in equal numbers. If there are 5 party members, use 5 brutes. (Again, we know this is not WoTCs definition of the term, we’re just borrowing it.)

2) We want the party to “win” most encounters. We’re targeting ½ the party’s total quality (which, in the case of the Brute, is also ½ the quality of any given PC on a 1:1 basis). Column P shows our target quality.

3) Now we’re looking to derive the (ap) and (hp) of our brute at each level.

To determine our damage at each level, we refer back to the Wizard and Fighter, and take the lesser (ap) of either entry. It’s completely arbitrary, but it gives us some nice looking numbers. A 1st level creature with 10 hp, doing 4 points of damage, tracks remarkably close to existing CR1 creatures; and so on through 30 levels. (See rycanada's DMs Helper spreadsheet to get a look at the attack and hit point spread of all 3.5 monsters.)


BRUTE
Code:
	P	Q	R	S
Level	Qual.	ap	hp	Group Quality
1	40	4	10	1000
2	84	7	12	2100
3	154	9	17	3850
4	176	9	20	4400
5	252	10	25	6300
6	360	10	36	9000
7	396	10	40	9900
8	504	11	46	12600
9	650	11	59	16250
10	700	11	64	17500
11	840	13	65	21000
12	1024	14	73	25600
13	1088	15	73	27200
14	1260	16	79	31500
15	1482	17	87	37050
16	1560	18	87	39000
17	1764	19	93	44100
18	2024	21	96	50600
19	2116	21	101	52900
20	2352	23	102	58800
21	2650	25	106	66250
22	2756	25	110	68900
23	3024	27	114	75600
24	3360	29	116	84000
25	3480	30	116	87000
26	3780	31	122	94500
27	4154	31	134	103850
28	4288	32	134	107200
29	4620	34	136	115500
30	5032	36	142	125800

The Mooks

1) Mooks are designed to tackle the party in a 2:1 ratio. Their total Group Quality must be equal to the Brutes (because the encounter difficulty is the same). Per Lanchester’s Laws, this means that individual Mooks have ¼ the quality of individual Brutes.

2) Determining our (ap) and (hp) for this series was a little more complicated. First, we looked for matching Quality entries on the Brute and Mook table. The most notable (Brute:Mook) matches are (40:39), (176:175), (504:506), (840:840), and (1260:1258). At each of these locations on the Mook table, we used the (ap) value from the Brute table.

3) Column AA was set to calculate the hit points by dividing Quality/(ap). We move down the AA column and fill in the values in between the benchmarks we found above, massaging the (ap) values as necessary to make sure that the (hp) column was constantly increasing as well.

MOOK
Code:
	Y	Z	AA	AB
Level	Qual.	ap	hp	Group Quality
1	10	3	3	1000
2	21	4	5	2100
3	39	4	10	3850
4	44	4	11	4400
5	63	6	11	6300
6	90	7	13	9000
7	99	7	14	9900
8	126	9	14	12600
9	163	9	18	16250
10	175	9	19	17500
11	210	10	21	21000
12	256	10	26	25600
13	272	10	27	27200
14	315	10	32	31500
15	371	11	34	37050
16	390	11	35	39000
17	441	11	40	44100
18	506	11	46	50600
19	529	11	48	52900
20	588	11	53	58800
21	663	12	55	66250
22	689	12	57	68900
23	756	12	63	75600
24	840	13	65	84000
25	870	13	67	87000
26	945	13	73	94500
27	1039	14	74	103850
28	1072	14	77	107200
29	1155	15	77	115500
30	1258	16	79	125800

Modifying Creatures Off the Baseline
At any given level, increasing a creature's AC by +5 over the expected value effectively doubles that creatures hit points; and increasing a creature's hit bonus by +5 over the expected value increases its attack power by 50%.

Of course, the same holds true for PCs. Our baseline comparisons of quality work because, relatively speaking, PCs and Monsters hit each other at an equal rate.

I would take it as a design imperative that neither PCs nor Monsters should ever deviate more than +/-5 off the baseline. (Meaning, among other things, drastically curtailing the amount and types of bonuses.)

Experience Point Values

My thoughts on fixed XP values are still in flux-- looking for a workable (not perfect, but workable) answer to XP, Encounter Design, and Lanchester's Laws. (Help wanted.)
 
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Bumped, and reserved for later edit.

EDIT: I think I have XP figured out; obviously, the bottom line is that monsters don't have an XP value; encounters do.
 
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