Yeah, given how big the US market is, this is going to ruin some people's calculations completely. I would assume especially board game publishers will be hit hard, but I guess really everyone who's doing something that is even a bit beyond just books (e.g. cards, dice, etc.) is at risk. So no matter where you live, I think this is, overall, a loss for gaming.
True that it's going to impact the math hard! But even before the tariffs you saw a bit of an implosion on boardgame KS projects. Mythic Games was just one of the companies that started to drown, three years ago they started to fumble with the Darkest Dungeon KS and recently CMON had to start selling IP to stay afloat. With the most recent being the whole Zombicide range being sold to Asmodee. Other KS 'companies' either also went belly up or started to scale back drastically. Heck even as far back as 2014 the founder/owner of Fantasy Flight Games sold/merged his company to/with Asmodee, went on as CEO for four years and then cashed out completely and started a new (similar) business, but far smaller. Days of Wonder was also sold to Asmodee in 2014. Asmodee is a French company with a global presence.
Wonder if companies are reconsidering that approach and move the distribution for the Americas to Canada and leave the US to service the US only, and how easy that would be to actually do
Moving the distribution for the US to Canada does not solve anything. Still the issue with tariffs on import from Canada to the US and supplying Mexico and below would mean moving through the US, which also incurs tariffs.
The US cannot 'service' the US, as most gaming products are actually produced in China. Production knowledge for many things has evaporated as people get old, retire and are not replaced. Even if they could produce in the US, chances are good that the quality would suck for the foreseeable future! Seen that with hard (HIPS) plastics: holes and dips in straight panels, soft details, etc. People having to reinvent the wheel and failing for years on end, spending a TON of money and time to eventually go broke. Also, most of the machines they would need for printing, cutting, injection molding, mold production, etc. Are made in China or somewhere else in Asia. Certain machines are made else where, but those can be incredibly expensive! (Like Swiss CNC machines.)
The other issue is materials. We already established that the US was ill equipped to do it's own printing due to lack of quality local paper sources (for some reason). It's entirely possible that due to that reason someone was able to get an exception for books added to the tariffs (for now). The US still imports plastics. Cardboard for board game components/boxes still need to come from some place, inks, etc. And still the big multinationals like Asmodee, Hasbro, Matell, Ravensburger, etc. They have assets in the US and the rest of the world, IF there were opportunities to produce locally, they would have the most money to actually do that. And with so many smaller companies facing oblivion, foreign companies can easily scoop up a ton of IP. Just like what Asmodee started doing in 2014...
And with the weak dollar, actually importing stuff from other countries is going to be expensive. I suspect that more people will either start hunting for second hand stuff already in the US or print&play is going to be very big!
Will people buy less, and share more? Maybe 3D printing will become more popular for 3D pieces. Resins can be made locally, and something like PLA could be easily made from corn (and the machines used to make the filament aren't that complex). The issue is the printers themselves, again, most (components) are made in China. Or people could start just reusing meeple from game A for game B...
