D&D 3E/3.5 What if 3.5 and 4E split the market?

[Varianor Abroad]

The more the game is re-engineered - and made distinct from its predecessor - the greater the likelihood that fans will be lost along the way.

However, some editions make new fans or bring back old ones. 3E did this.

As to the market split, I think 3E actually united a diffuse market. You used to hear a lot of variety in gamers. Now, everyone plays (or is at least familiar with) D&D. Again. Just like when I started 26 years ago. One interesting factor mentioned upthread is that systems change when campaigns end. Groups (anecdotally, I have no hard evidence) often post about how X concluded so now they are switching to Y system.

 

[Dragonblade]

This is certainly an interesting discussion, but I think a lot of you are way off base. Don't mistake the frequent postings of a few disgruntled gamers for some vast grassroots movement against 4e. Vocal message board critics have a way of sounding like they represent some huge constiuency. In reality I would say less than 30 people are responsible for 80% of all negative 4e posts both here and on WotC's forum.

I guarantee that 4e will be profitable for WotC, and there will be no market split. When 4e comes out, it will sell very well. By the end of its first year of release, I expect that sales of 3.5 compatible products will be less than 5% of the RPG market, and by the end of the second year of release, there will be no 3.5 sales outside of the occasional PDF publisher catering to a small niche market of holdouts.

 

[DaveMage]

This is certainly an interesting discussion, but I think a lot of you are way off base. Don't mistake the frequent postings of a few disgruntled gamers for some vast grassroots movement against 4e. Vocal message board critics have a way of sounding like they represent some huge constiuency. In reality I would say less than 30 people are responsible for 80% of all negative 4e posts both here and on WotC's forum.

I guarantee that 4e will be profitable for WotC, and there will be no market split. When 4e comes out, it will sell very well. By the end of its first year of release, I expect that sales of 3.5 compatible products will be less than 5% of the RPG market, and by the end of the second year of release, there will be no 3.5 sales outside of the occasional PDF publisher catering to a small niche market of holdouts.

You may be right.

Let's test it! I'll set up a poll....

http://www.enworld.org/showthread.php?t=209115

 

[Dragonblade]

Fair enough, but I guess I should clarify what I meant. I mean the rabid, "4e killed my puppy and took its stuff!", posters are a small minority whose presence seems amplified by the volume of their posts.

To be sure, a lot of people have posted well thought out criticisms on 4e. But in the end, I suspect that many of them will still buy it.

 

[DaveMage]

Fair enough, but I guess I should clarify what I meant. I mean the rabid, "4e killed my puppy and took its stuff!", posters are a small minority whose presence seems amplified by the volume of their posts.

To be sure, a lot of people have posted well thought out criticisms on 4e. But in the end, I suspect that many of them will still buy it.

For me, I see two forces at work here - one I'm fine with, and one I distrust.

The first one is the authors themselves. I truly believe that the authors are out to make the best game they can. Left without any other influences, I'll bet they could create a truly kick-ass game.

The force I distrust is the business element inherent in the system, and especially the economic pressures that may or may not be placed on WotC. I don't trust the PR machine or the business plan. I don't trust the potential impact that marketing is having on the game. For example, the splitting of traditional core races and classes over several rulebooks instead of just one. Might make sense from a financial standpoint, but it reeks of a scam to me. This is just one example, but there are undoubtedly others which are affecting the design of the game. External playtesting comes to mind. To me it seems like the game will be thrown out there will all the bugs and they'll be happy to have the playtest "live" so that they can fix the bugs that need to be fixed and release a 2nd printing that everyone will want because the bugs will be smoothed out. Sure, they will release the errata for free, but I'm betting that market data shows that people prefer to have clean books rather than errata filled and will therefore buy the books again.

Now, I may be being paranoid, but we'll see....

 

[Dragon Snack]

I don't trust the "business side" either. I've spent some time in sales, so I can see some of the tricks...

Don't mistake the frequent postings of a few disgruntled gamers for some vast grassroots movement against 4e. Vocal message board critics have a way of sounding like they represent some huge constiuency. In reality I would say less than 30 people are responsible for 80% of all negative 4e posts both here and on WotC's forum.

By the same token, don't mistake not saying anything for some grassroots movement FOR 4.0...

Only 2 players in my group post regularly on message bards and the other one is a "radib" 4.0 supporter. I'm not convinced, but I can't even post the majority of what my group said when we discussed 4.0 yesterday - every other person in my group is anti-4.0 (far moreso than I am). But they won't complain about it, they just will stop buying D&D books when 4.0 hits. I doubt my group is a rarity.

That said, I won't dispute that 4.0 will sell well (and probably be profitable, but will it be profitable enough) and that sales of 3.5 will dry up (kind of hard not to, if nobody is producing anything new). I'll even concede that some of the anti-4.0 people will end up playing (we had an anti-3.5 DM who slurped up that kool-aid as soon as it hit the shelves).

But don't think a large group of D&D players will upgrade just because it's the "new" thing. Lots of them will continue to play 3.x without having to worry about the next book of the month...

 

[Malivar]

I think the market will be split, but the split will be temporary.

Right now I have a huge backlog of 3.5 stuff to run. I have Ptolus, multiple Paizo adventure paths, Red Hand of Doom, and a bunch of Necromancer Games adventures that I haven't gotten to run yet. I've got WoTC books that I haven't even had the chance to properly read. I could run a whole campaign off the stuff in Libris Mortis, for example. The stuff that got released late in the 3.5 cycle was of pretty high quality -- probably better than the first 4E stuff will be, because the authors need time to get familiar with how to write good 4E adventures.

So, while I may eventually switch to 4E, it will be awhile. Hopefully, I'll manage to delay the switch until the game's been played for a couple of years and the broken stuff has been caught and revised. I wouldn't mind missing the first revision of splatbooks -- it would be nice to skip the 4E Tome and Blood and move right on to the 4E Complete Mage. And if I could pick up the game when they release 4.5 (and they will), that will be perfect.

I expect that during this time I'll try to get in a game and be a 4E player. But I won't need to buy anything but the 4E players handbook for this.

Honestly, I doubt very much that I am alone in this. People like me may be WoTC's biggest problem.

Ken

I think Ken hit the nail squarely on the head. From the fincial view, I have hundrends, if not thousands of dollars, in books and mini's for 3.5 and I am not ready to part with my money for a new addition. Having 8 players in my group, it was a tough sell getting everyone to switch from 3.0 to 3.5 (it literally split the group apart). From a gaming aspect, I have a great game systems that, for the most part, works fine. I am in the beginning of the Age of Worms campaign, and have no desire to convert everything from 3.5 to 4.0 to placate the bigwigs at WotC.

I guess what bother's me the most about switching to 4.0 is I was on one of those Online D&D advisery panels for several years and kept saying it was too soon for a new version of D&D, but as usual, WotC seldom listens to it's customers.

 

[Malivar]

This is such a good point. Basic D&D is very different from 1e, which is distinct from 2e, which is quite dissimilar from 3e, which may feel like a completely different game from 4e. There are now so many different - yet perfectly playable - versions of the game that players can settle down quite comfortably in the rule set that suits them.

The more the game is re-engineered - and made distinct from its predecessor - the greater the likelihood that fans will be lost along the way.

Agreed. At Gen Con last year, I was still amazed by the number of people who play First and Second Edition.

 

[HP Dreadnought]

Ultimately, all the complaining online about the new edition "its to soon" "I've got too much invested in 3.5" etc. is pointless.

Its not going to change the fact that 4th edition is coming out and its going a certain direction (whatever that turns out to be.)

Most of the complainers will eventually switch, and life will go on as normal. By the end of 2008 you will see about as many complaints about the switch to 4th edition as you do people ranting on a regular basis about the switch to 3.5. It will come up from time to time, but that's about it.

But for some reason people still feel the need to rant and rave and complain on the internet.

Its like the old Simpson's episode where somebody suggests to Bart that they should go to the internet to get the opinion of the public, and Bart replies, "No, we need the opinions of people who matter."

 

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

I think that many people that plan not to switch at the beginning will eventually switch at a later time, once they in fact are saturated with the 3rd Edition (or older ones), but still want to play D&D. I don't think that ever 2nd edition player immediately switched to 3rd edition, and many 3rd edition players weren't there from the start.