You may be right about that. However, I do hope they don't just take the view that APs work for Paizo and so they should do that, because that misses a crucial point - it's not just APs that are key to Paizo's success, but subscriptions to Adventure Paths. The importance of that distinction probably can't be overstated.
I completely agree, although would take it a step further - the adventure paths and subscriptions are important but
secondary reasons for Paizo's success. The
primary reason they are so successful is that they run their business well, particularly when it comes to their relationship to the fan-base.
The other thing I've noticed about recent APs is that they've tended to add a "side dish" to the main adventure, be it a loot system for "Skull & Shackles" or kingdom building for "Kingmaker" or whatever. In theory, that sort of "campaign module" is something 5e can handle really easily, so I would hope WotC will look into this. (And, indeed, there's some evidence that they're already doing so with their next 'story'.)
Yeah, it seems that the "Adventurer's Handbook" is taking this approach.
I would only add that while I think WotC should learn from Paizo, I don't think they should try to copy their formula out-right. They need to do their own thing, find their own "signature line." Story arcs, yes, but they need to find something that differentiates what they do from Paizo.
I'd like to throw in yet another plug for something I hope WotC does: Sandbox box sets. Imagine a box set called "the Silver Marches Adventure Set" or something like that. A big, thick box set with:
-
Gazetteer (~96 pages) - includes detailed locations with encounters, usable for hexcrawling or just exploring.
-
DM's Guide (~64 pages) - Guidelines for running a campaign in the Silver Marches, sandbox or otherwise - including meta-plot threads and guidelines.
-
Adventure Book (~64 pages) - a few short adventures and tips for longer adventures.
-
Monsters & Treasures (~32 pages) - loot, monsters and other gizmos.
-
Maps - and perhaps other doodads.
Or something like that. That's a lot of meat there - about 250 pages with maps in a box set makes for an expensive product. But what fun would it be? They could do one for all the major, classic settings - each starting with an iconic location.
But the point here is that this is a way to combine not only their three pillars, but story
and setting, as well as serve both adventure paths
and sandboxing. Perhaps in addition to that box set, they could offer an adventure path book(s).
Just dreaming...