Let me be very specific then, because I didn't mean to ask about current beliefs. Do you think the edition wars, right now, convince anyone to switch from 3e to 4e, or from 4e to 3e?
Absolutely not.
Do you think, right now, they are convincing WOTC to change anything?
Convincing? Only time will tell...10 (?) years from now when they announce the pending release of 5Ed.
I hope, though, that it is reminding/convincing them of some basic marketing principles about how important it is to play up your new products while not badmouthing the old, and that ditching marketing methods that were effective can get you in trouble. That marketing is all about perceptions.
And that regardless of the amount of market research you do, your interpretation of your data may matter just as much as (if not more than) the raw data itself.
I'm one of the most vocal but
precise users of the New Coke example. Coke had tons of data, but where they failed in interpretation was that while New Coke beat the pants off of Pepsi and the original formula Coke in tests, Coke drinkers didn't want a replacement for Coke.
Coke learned its lesson, and currently has a whole host of beverages in its line, including its original recipe and, according to some 2006 data, New Coke (now called Coke II).
The lesson of New Coke is that your marketing research is only as good as the questions you ask. They asked whether it tasted better, they didn't ask if people would buy it
instead of their preferred drink. Yes, its a logical assumption, but its an assumption that didn't bear out in the market.
As good a game as 4Ed is- and I make no claims that it isn't, because I'd be lying- there is a significant portion of the market that didn't want 3.X to go away. They were not ready for a replacement of the game they preferred, but a refinement would have been quite acceptable.
I could easily envision a 4Ed RPG without any D&D linkages- different races, spells, etc.- that would have sold like gangbusters. Perhaps it would have been linked to some kind of hot IP out there, or the designers could have come up with something unique. Heck, I might have bought more than just the first Core 3 books in that alternative reality.