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Why (and how) 5E can succeed
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<blockquote data-quote="Rygar" data-source="post: 6239772" data-attributes="member: 6756765"><p>5th edition could succeed in a number of different ways.</p><p></p><p>The ability to emulate editions is critical. If they can come up with something that approximates previous editions well, they have a pretty good chance of success. That said, if the last playtest packet is representative of the "Default" 5th edition and their target for future development, I think they're in trouble. Like others in this thread, I really don't think that playtest packet as a retail product is going to do anything more than fuel Pathfinder's sales.</p><p></p><p>Now assuming that you can approximate previous editions, they have a ace-in-the-hole that no other RPG can compete with. The Settings. As I'm sure everyone here knows, they've aligned the game to support pretty much every setting they produced, and hinted that many or all will be printed. Pathfinder cannot compete with that, assuming even ground on how well the rules systems are liked, even with their very excellent adventures they lack the allure of the Settings. That can easily regain them market leadership.</p><p></p><p>Then comes the real "Wildcard". The video game industry is teetering on the brink of an 80's style collapse, many in the Industry are predicting a collapse, some an apocalyptic one. The Publishers need games to sell millions of copies in order to be sustainable, games for the last generation have been dropping in large percentages for years, and the installed base for the next generation is comparitively tiny. If the next generation doesn't take off like a rocket, if it follows a normal long-tail sales trend, the Publishers don't have enough revenue streams to sustain tens of millions of dollars in expenses for a single game. If even a single remaining Publisher folds, it's likely going to be catastrophic. Games sell consoles, less games means slower sales, slow sales means more bankruptcy.</p><p></p><p>If that happens, and we won't know for about 6 months whether or not we're going to see a collapse, then we may very well see the "Digital generation" as someone earlier put it return to "analogue" games. Assuming D&D is doing well, a video game market collapse could easily lead to a huge boom for Pen and Paper RPG's.</p><p></p><p>There's alot of ways this could go, and I don't think we have a clear enough picture to predict it yet. We need to know if they're sticking with their originally stated "Basic, Standard, Advanced" or if the last playtest packet is 5th edition. We need to know what their plans are for the Settings and Adventures. That will tell us if they can succeed by current market standards. We need more sales trends for the PS4 and X-box One, that will tell us if the video game market is going to tank.</p><p></p><p>Right now, I'd say they have a chance. But much like a football fan hoping his team will make the playoffs, I'm basing that on "If this happens, and that happens, and the other thing happens, then YES!".</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Rygar, post: 6239772, member: 6756765"] 5th edition could succeed in a number of different ways. The ability to emulate editions is critical. If they can come up with something that approximates previous editions well, they have a pretty good chance of success. That said, if the last playtest packet is representative of the "Default" 5th edition and their target for future development, I think they're in trouble. Like others in this thread, I really don't think that playtest packet as a retail product is going to do anything more than fuel Pathfinder's sales. Now assuming that you can approximate previous editions, they have a ace-in-the-hole that no other RPG can compete with. The Settings. As I'm sure everyone here knows, they've aligned the game to support pretty much every setting they produced, and hinted that many or all will be printed. Pathfinder cannot compete with that, assuming even ground on how well the rules systems are liked, even with their very excellent adventures they lack the allure of the Settings. That can easily regain them market leadership. Then comes the real "Wildcard". The video game industry is teetering on the brink of an 80's style collapse, many in the Industry are predicting a collapse, some an apocalyptic one. The Publishers need games to sell millions of copies in order to be sustainable, games for the last generation have been dropping in large percentages for years, and the installed base for the next generation is comparitively tiny. If the next generation doesn't take off like a rocket, if it follows a normal long-tail sales trend, the Publishers don't have enough revenue streams to sustain tens of millions of dollars in expenses for a single game. If even a single remaining Publisher folds, it's likely going to be catastrophic. Games sell consoles, less games means slower sales, slow sales means more bankruptcy. If that happens, and we won't know for about 6 months whether or not we're going to see a collapse, then we may very well see the "Digital generation" as someone earlier put it return to "analogue" games. Assuming D&D is doing well, a video game market collapse could easily lead to a huge boom for Pen and Paper RPG's. There's alot of ways this could go, and I don't think we have a clear enough picture to predict it yet. We need to know if they're sticking with their originally stated "Basic, Standard, Advanced" or if the last playtest packet is 5th edition. We need to know what their plans are for the Settings and Adventures. That will tell us if they can succeed by current market standards. We need more sales trends for the PS4 and X-box One, that will tell us if the video game market is going to tank. Right now, I'd say they have a chance. But much like a football fan hoping his team will make the playoffs, I'm basing that on "If this happens, and that happens, and the other thing happens, then YES!". [/QUOTE]
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