We have the amazon listings (which ended ranking it better than 3.5 did) and we have at least one statement from a WOTC employee saying sales were extremely strong and they were forced into a second and third printing much earlier than expected.
About Amazon: I'm talking what market share of D&D players are buying/playing 4e. I don't see how Amazon can answer that.
About WotC: Their layoffs don't seem well aligned with the idea of extremely strong sales.
And while that is far from perfect data, it is at least more credible data, as opposed to an internet poll here or attendance a handful of times at your game store.
About 10 polls here, all with the same answers, and my observations are not just from "my FLGS", it's 6 different FLGS' in 2 countries. Here are my FLGS field study observations:
Suburban Seattle data:
- 1 FLGS on the fence, fully supportive of Pathfinder and 4e. Carrying the full line of Pathfinder (including Pathfinder Beta, which is a variant on 3e rules sold under OGL) and full line of 4e. Many tables of games, but no one's ever playing D&D of any flavor when I come in.
- 1 FLGS neutral and uninterested in edition wars. Carries AD&D onwards, including Pathfinder adventures but not Beta. More 3e than 4e books, still, but the owner says I should try 4e (he's the guy who said all editions are compatible). Hosted games here are CCG games, but the only time I ever saw D&D played here was on official game days (they only have one table, usually in use for CCG's).
- 1 FLGS strongly 4e, with all 3e material is on 40-75% closeout sales, but does have Pathfinder adventures. Several tables of gaming going on here, none of it D&D. This is the place (Genesis Games & Gizmo's) that sold the books at the Seattle Game Day intro for 4e that the authors were at all, so it's a pretty major shop.
Singapore data:
- 1 FLGS carrying all 4e. I'm told this place is the center of the gaming community in the country.
- 1 FLGS with most 3e, most 4e, and a little Pathfinder
- 1 FLGS dumping its 3e books for 50% off, no 4e
What percentage adoption is that commercial reality showing? It's pretty consistent in the Southwest and Northeast Pacific: the biggest deal places in both countries are strongly in favor of 4e, but the little guys are hedging their bets -- or dropping all D&D, in the case of one store. So are the EnWorld 45% 3e/55% 4e split, or the general idea that 4e is leaving a lot of people behind, all that far-fetched? I think you've got to be pollyanna to think WotC hasn't lost significant numbers of customers.
it's just personal opinion, which tends to strongly correlate to how well you like the game.
That's true.