Not so sure about the wishful thinking myself. The pattern is pretty consistent across many media. A premium subscription model targets those with the cash to pay. The subscription model targets that demographic and sucks in a series of clones competing for slices of the same 'quick returns' market segment.
Publishers which can't match the resources of the subscription market try to make clones of the subscription model and find genre niches to recycle the same gameplay. The subscription model out resources the clones and lowers subscription entry to fend off fragmentation.
However, bit by bit, the market fragments as innovative products develop and tighten up. The innovative products change the gameplay model instead of the genre, appealing to players by taking play in a particular direction/ s. Players then have a genuine choice between subscription and Indie models. The subscription firms don't die, but they do 'lock antlers' and fight over the same patch of ground. Change is plain dangerous to these guys, because of the short term finance/ development cycles.
Most of that would seem to apply to the record, comic. movie and videogame industries. It, maybe, also applies to the narrative Mouse Guard and custom, design game systems like the Traveller SRD and Treasure.
They're not going to kill off the subscription market but they can bring in new players, jaded players and, oddly enough, bring gradual change to the gameplay within subscription systems.
