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<blockquote data-quote="BryonD" data-source="post: 4241793" data-attributes="member: 957">I'm not at all interested in 4E.I hope it does very well, because I agree that the industry as a whole will be strongly impacted by it.I think it will do quite well out of the gate.I think it will be a success.I do not think it will come close to 3E's success or duration.&nbsp; Partly just because the market was starving for something good when 3E came along.&nbsp; That market isn't anywhere to be found right now.&nbsp; Partly because I think the idea that a simplified game will bring in more gamers is a pipe dream.&nbsp; For better than 90%, table top RPG gamers are what they are.&nbsp; Complexity of rules has not been a litmus test ever before, and it won't suddenly start now.&nbsp; Sure, there will be new players, and the hype of a new edition will concentrate the growth into an above average rate for a while.&nbsp; But over the long haul the rate of new gamer emergence isn't going to change as a result of 4e.&nbsp; And I know lots of people will jump up and tell me that this doesn't apply to them personally, therefore the big picture claim MUST be wrong, but the &quot;simple is better&quot; tactic will appeal the least to people who want more and more rules in more and more books and most to &quot;less is more&quot; types.&nbsp; And without a value judgment of what is &quot;fun&quot;, I'll just claim that isn't the best case scenario if your job is to sell books.&nbsp; Trading die-hard completeists for casual grab and go gamers is a losing proposition.&nbsp; (Modules will likely sell better than before.)I also think that the been-there-done-that factor will hit much quicker in 4E.&nbsp; Not in weeks or months, but much quicker than 3E.IMO</blockquote>

[QUOTE="BryonD, post: 4241793, member: 957"] I'm not at all interested in 4E. I hope it does very well, because I agree that the industry as a whole will be strongly impacted by it. I think it will do quite well out of the gate. I think it will be a success. I do not think it will come close to 3E's success or duration. Partly just because the market was starving for something good when 3E came along. That market isn't anywhere to be found right now. Partly because I think the idea that a simplified game will bring in more gamers is a pipe dream. For better than 90%, table top RPG gamers are what they are. Complexity of rules has not been a litmus test ever before, and it won't suddenly start now. Sure, there will be new players, and the hype of a new edition will concentrate the growth into an above average rate for a while. But over the long haul the rate of new gamer emergence isn't going to change as a result of 4e. And I know lots of people will jump up and tell me that this doesn't apply to them personally, therefore the big picture claim MUST be wrong, but the "simple is better" tactic will appeal the least to people who want more and more rules in more and more books and most to "less is more" types. And without a value judgment of what is "fun", I'll just claim that isn't the best case scenario if your job is to sell books. Trading die-hard completeists for casual grab and go gamers is a losing proposition. (Modules will likely sell better than before.) I also think that the been-there-done-that factor will hit much quicker in 4E. Not in weeks or months, but much quicker than 3E. IMO [/QUOTE]

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