will 4.0 succeed?

[joethelawyer]

without getting into arguments over game mechanics between various systems, now that we have more info as to what 4e is all about, i'm curious as to people's thoughts on whether or not 4.0 will ultimately succeed as planned. especially in light of the thread on whether or not people will switch over to 4e.

ultimately i think wotc is trying to make the game more translatable and marketable to the players of mmorpg's. thats where the new generation of gamers has gone, for the most part. its a smart move, in that its what they have to do to survive. they need to develop the back bench and get new players, as us old timers die out due to mountain dew and chip overdoses. existing users switching over is not the main goal of the new edition, though it is a part of it. new users is the main goal i believe.

will it work? will new users come on board in great numbers do you think?


joe

 

[Morrus]

Yes.

 

[Fallen Seraph]

I would say so, we have seen many players transition from 3.5 to 4e, we have seen players come back who left D&D (or didn't play 3e) or RPGs all together come back and it should hopefully generate a new flock of gamers.

This sounds to me like 4e is on its way to success.

 

[Wulf Ratbane]

It will succeed in the sense of selling well.

It might draw in some new players, yes. New players in great numbers, doubtful.

I don't think it will succeed in drawing kids away from video games, no.

I think the vast majority of 4e sales will be churn of the existing playerbase.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

I have no doubt that it will succeed.

Consider that even I who am not enthusiastic about much of what I've seen has already pre-ordered the Core 3. I'm probably not the only one, so there is probably a sizable frontloading of cash headed into WotC's coffers.

In addition, there are many people for whom 4Ed seems like a godsend, so their enthusiasm will also drive sales- both directly as they purchase it and indirectly as they convince others to play.

IMHO, the only real question is how successful it will be. For me- an entertainment lawyer with an MBA in marketing and a degree in Economics- the sideshow of how successful the game will be as a product is actually more exciting for me than the quality of the game itself. There are several elements in play (mostly centered around the success of the product that 4Ed is supposed to supplant) that make this revision of D&D a potential history maker in terms of marketing.

Not that its likely academia will care- RPGs are still a bit of a niche market.

 

[Fallen Seraph]

Hmm, as such Dannyalcatraz what would you say of the marketing so far? And what is to come, like the television advertisements, and possible handing of a PHB to Colbert on the Report?

 

[exile]

I agree with Wulf that 4E will find most of its buyers in the existing player base and that it will fail to pull new gamers away from video games (in significant numbers). I'll even go so far as to say that when 5E comes around, a lot of that which is being lauded about 4E now will be deeply criticized.

Chad

 

[joethelawyer]

after giving my first post on the thread some thought, i guess i forgot to add something important. how do you measure success? by what standard is wotc measuring it? i'm sure they have at least a few objective measurements they want to track---sales, number of new users, number of third party publishers putting out products for 4e, number of third party 4e products, the number of people who sign up for the online thing with them. then there is the more subjective stuff---the buzz on blogs and boards, the user feedback, convention chatter, etc.

i'm sure that a big company like hasbro has certain metrics that must be met in order to have some people get their bonuses. thats a more short term measurement.

long term though, in 10 years will there be more people playing d&d than there are now? hard to say.

i started this thread, and even though i wont be switching over (dont feel the need), i cant say if overall it will be a success or not. i guess the ultimate measurement is whether or not the game will be around in 10 yrs, resembling the game as it is today (pen and paper based, bunch of guys gathered around a table rolling dice in a swords and sorcery imaginary world).

i dunno.

joe



.

 

[Will]

People have called doom on the head of D&D many times before. There are no indications that this time it's any more real than any other time.

The only thing that would kill D&D is if Hasbro just up and decided to stop printing it and refused to sell it at a reasonable price.

And even then, the game would keep getting played for a long time, long enough for someone to finally buy and resurrect a gameline.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

what would you say of the marketing so far?

1) I think the 4Ed rollout was been a little too quiet at first, and that led to a bit more resentment & paranoia than you'd normally see in the target market.

2) While the online press leaks have generally been pretty good, I don't care for the preview books at all. In all honesty, though, that is more as a roleplayer (who is wondering how accurate that prerelease stuff can be) than as a cool-headed and impartial analyst.

Still, if too much changes between the release of the preview books and the release of the real thing, some players might just feel burned at that extra $$$ WotC milked out of them, and that could lead to backlash.

And even without a backlash, that money expended on previews is, by necessity, going to detract from sales of subsequent WotC releases, since no gamer (that I know) has effectively infinite resources. That could mean that certain products simply don't do as well.

3) The delay of the GSL has also cooled the 3rd party reception, and has effectively forced some to "choose sides" in a competition that is on WotC's terms. I don't think there is much actual bad blood, but I know that some of the 3rd party publishers are definitely not pleased with what the delay will do to their schedule.

If you're small enough a publisher, the GSL's delay could mean the difference between continued operations and shutting down the company. The same could happen even to larger companies if they "back the wrong horse" when deciding which edition to support.

4) Ultimately, only time will tell if WotC jumped the gun in releasing 4Ed when 3.X is still so popular. If WotC's market research is too far off, 3.X (especially in the form of its offshoots) could continue to command significant market share and possibly even seriously damage 4Ed's long-term sales prospects (a long shot, to be sure).

5) I don't think you'll see a big marketing presence on radio or TV like you once did with M:tG or some videogames or even the 30th Anniversary hooplah. There isn't that kind of money floating around right now, and this is just another RPG revision- there's no special history attached to it (...yet).

Anything you're likely to see in non-gamer media outlets will be op-ed pieces or personal endorsements by gamer celebs like Colbert.